Forward Guidance

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls “monetary climate change.” Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets.Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/Ronnie Stoeferle’s Twitter: @RonStoeferleJack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_

The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices?Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexation’s rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings.Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a “diversified” basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been “crowded-out” of the index.At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: “select for the smart penny.”Horizon Kinetics’ website: https://horizonkinetics.com/Jack’s prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFcAbout $INFL: https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/Horizon Kinetics’ Twitter handle: @HorizonKineticsJack Farley’s Twitter handle: @JackFarley96

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.

Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks

Today’s guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass.Alfonso shares with Blockworks’ Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss:- the global credit impulse turning negative- long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isn’t inflationaryAlfonso Peccatiello’s Twitter: @MacroAlfJack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Alfonso Peccatiello’s newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printingArticle on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio

With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the “pain trade” is here, says Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his “Project Zimbabwe” framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks’ Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).

The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.

Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal?On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.