Forward Guidance

Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense,” thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserve’s assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a “sham”: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession. McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold.Filmed on May 31, 2022. --Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonaldJack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet?(04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession(09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0?(24:23) Outlook on S&P 500(27:25) Bit.Com(27:55) The Energy Trade(31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet?(34:45) Commercial Real Estate(36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar(41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession --Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows.Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are “burning capital” and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a “carbon bubble.”This conversation is not investment advice.Filmed on May 27, 2022.--Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterestsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please.--(00:00) Introduction(00:10) Background(01:01) Supply Constraints(21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil?(33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade(56:14) Company-Specific Analysis(1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks.--Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks?(21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks(23:15) Tesla(27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules(30:03) Bit.com Ad(30:34) Recession In Europe(42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S.(46:10) Housing(49:05) The Federal Reserve(52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals(56:00) Recession in China(1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices.Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to “slip on a banana skin” as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wang’s message to the viewers banking on a “Powell Put” is even more stark: “wake the ____ up.”--Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsmanJoseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/.--Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please.--(00:00) Introduction(02:40) Banana Skins In This Market(13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative(23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse(30:50) Ad(36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control?(41:18) The Dollar and Bonds(50:28) Bretton Woods III(59:55) Inflationary Hikes--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system?Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_MacroFollow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserve’s continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle.__Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Intro(02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar(15:32) New Bretton Woods(17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go?(19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge?(26:36) Bit.com Ad(27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas(39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance)(46:08) Junior Gold Miners(53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have(55:56) Jurisdictional Risk(1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine(1:06:26) The Future Of Gold--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonso’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced:“What If?”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r“A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=rAlfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfJack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--(00:00) Introduction(00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions(08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model(12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500(19:17) BCB Ad(20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe(22:53) Credit Spreads(29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot(35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing?(38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy?(47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets.__Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnhFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over?(04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album(13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects(16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy(18:46) ARKK(22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets(27:26) Where Is The Fed Put?(31:53) Bit.com Ad(32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation?(37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks(40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation(41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets(46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction?(50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation(51:40) Inflation in Europe(52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball(56:06) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights.Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are “toast” and that goldilocks is “dead.” Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the “ARKK” stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix.As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): “know what you own.”George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Background(06:55) The Everything Bubble(13:36) The Powell Pivot(20:58) ARKK(25:43) BCB Ad(26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets(39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No)(41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go?(43:22) Netflix and Amazon(50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now"(52:50) Energy(59:30) Crypto(1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “Forward Guidance,” Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as “Doomberg,” a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer.Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations.Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called “environmentalists” led to its embrace of coal.--Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergTFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited)--(00:00) Intro(00:33) The Start of Doomberg(05:27) Core Energy Thesis(12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal(14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas(19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy(34:00) Bit.com Ad(34:30) Nuclear Power(39:20) Farmers On The Brink(47:30) Oil(54:57) Renewables(01:08:36) Questions From Audience--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.