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Crypto Voices

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May 17, 2023 • 16min

PE69: How often is Bitcoin UNDER trend??

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:01 First times breaking above & below 03:06 Into and out of crypto winter 06:21 Nov-2018 puke below 07:51 Trends around 2021 double top 12:55 Closing answers!! Here I talk about the power regression trendlines over Bitcoin's price. From Bitcoin Pizza day in 2010, to the present. Three questions I answer in this video: 1) How many times has Bitcoin's price pierced its trendline? 2) What % of the time overall is this movement? 3) Does Bitcoin's price stay above its trendline more or less than under? All-time trend coefficients to draw it yourself: Power formula: y = a * x ^ b Coefficients found: y = 7.70E-18 * x ^ 587% Prior videos with further info: Yesterday's power regression: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUTigJRqwA0 Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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May 16, 2023 • 10min

PE68: What's the BTC price trending at???

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-eighth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:58 Power trendline all-time 02:05 Working backwards in time 04:17 Dec-2030 trend predictions 07:32 The trends do NOT always fall 09:26 Signal not noise Here I talk about the power regression trendlines over Bitcoin's price. From only looking at 2010, to the all-time trendline. We've looked at this before. Important to note that Bitcoin's all-time trend sometimes move up, and sometimes moves down. Follow the signal, not the noise! All-time trend coefficients to draw it yourself: Power formula: y = a * x ^ b Coefficients found: y = 7.70E-18 * x ^ 587% Prior videos with further info: Original power regression: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU2P_jJwVZ0 Evolution if power trends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8Up3Xvmv_4 Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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May 15, 2023 • 15min

PE67: Reserves & Recessions... in Canada!

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-seventh video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:35 Base money in banks 01:52 Demand deposits 03:45 Reserve ratio 04:15 Reserve ratio rising 06:36 Reserve ratio falling 08:55 Central bank sells gold 11:15 What makes Canada different? 12:30 Is fractional reserve banking the problem? Here I talk about the reserve ratio of the Canadian banking system from the late '60s, until today. This is the ratio of base money in banks, relative to outstanding demand deposits - systemwide. The most important question I ask and answer in this video is: Is fractional reserve banking (and low reserve ratios) the source of recessions? Prior videos with further info: Brown's Bottom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTkkPpCfxWA USA Demand Deposits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF08eIt2AaY Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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May 12, 2023 • 24min

PE66: Base money in Canada

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-sixth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:40 Physical currency (banknotes) 01:12 Money printing during Covid 01:51 CBDC? Don't forget CBPC! 03:30 Canada's free banking system 06:33 Canada's Great Depression 08:55 Benefits of branch banking 12:07 Physical currency (banknotes) 14:22 Bank reserves (settlement balances) 19:45 Compound annual growth rates Here I talk about the wonderful free banking history of Canada. I also bring it into the present by looking at the growth of the monetary base, or Canada's base money, over the last 90 years, since the Bank of Canada was founded. How does it affect price inflation? Prior videos with further info: USA monetary base: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPpTrgPNTz4 Scandic paper currency stocks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fe3WaE8o0rY Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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May 10, 2023 • 23min

PE65: Ordinals & FEES: Macro Bitcoin Perspective

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-fifth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:53 Latest daily average Tx fees (in dollars) 02:00 Non-base money use cases? 02:33 Use trailing twelve months! 07:40 TTM issuance % (in USD) 14:35 Other base money fees 19:13 BTC's fee % component will be more 20:10 TTM issuance % (in BTC) Here I look at the average daily transaction fees, in US-dollar terms, for the Bitcoin protocol over its lifetime. Even with the explosion of Ordinals onto the scene these days and the demand for transaction-inclusion (block space) increasing, it does not change the fact that on-chain, mainnet bitcoins - UTXOs - are base money! In addition, we will roll these transaction fees, over an entire year (trailing 12-months or trailing-365 days), and see how much of a % these fees make up of total miner revenue. Remember, the other (much larger, at present) component of mining revenue is the block reward, or the issuance of new coins. Prior videos with further info: TTM fees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a06LVI-BrSU TTM issuance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXQIi3JWrcc Total TTM revenue (BTC): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOmdRTWO6fo Total TTM revenue (USD): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_FZSRGPb3w Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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May 9, 2023 • 17min

PE64: Ordinals, et al... Bitcoin still BASE MONEY

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:35 Daily average transaction fees (in dollars) 01:23 Brief history of the chart 06:44 Taproot brought other use cases to BTC network 07:51 Doesn't change the fact: BTC is BASE MONEY 13:30 Layered protocols / Off-chain scaling is different 15:26 Conclusion on base money Here I look at the average daily transaction fees, in US-dollar terms, for the Bitcoin protocol over its lifetime. Even with the explosion of Ordinals onto the scene these days and the demand for transaction-inclusion (block space) increasing, it does not change the fact that on-chain, mainnet bitcoins - UTXOs - are base money! Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Apr 26, 2023 • 17min

PE63: Are the Scandics really cashless?

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:25 Brief history of paper money 02:10 Denmark physical currency supply 03:10 Norway physical currency supply 05:58 Sweden physical currency supply 08:58 Rare to find shrinking CBPC 11:40 DKK physical supply in USD 12:50 NOK physical supply in USD 13:42 SEK physical supply in USD 15:08 To find signal in CBDC, watch CBPC Here I look at the physical currency supplies of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden (both in their native kroner/krona and in USD). When trying to understand where central banks are going with CBDCs, first step back and analyze their CBPC stock! Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Apr 25, 2023 • 59min

CV150: Ben Prentice - Economics in one lesson

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the one hundred fiftieth podcast episode from Crypto Voices. Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Matthew and Alec interview Ben Prentice, co-creator of the wonderful gold-influenced website 'WTF Happened in 1971?' He is also a producer of the What Bitcoin Did podcast with Peter McCormack. He is both a student and teacher of Austrian Economics. Contents 00:00 Intro 02:15 Monetary economic history and gold 17:00 Triffin dilemma 21:15 A 'Need' to print money? 24:20 Inflation vs. Deflation 30:47 AI and prices 42:10 Long-term prices vs. wages 46:05 Future of the dollar 51:13 Bitcoin, regulation, centralization Links for more info: https://twitter.com/mrcoolbp https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for watching! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Apr 24, 2023 • 12min

PE62: Bitcoin vs. the FED (II)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:38 Review of Fed Balance sheet (Base money) 02:24 BTC market cap vs. Fed Balance sheet 03:29 Power trendline: BTC penetration (95% R-squared) 09:15 Compare prior trendlines to this % Here we analyze, on a 95% R-squared power trendline, how the Bitcoin market cap compares to the total Fed Balance sheet. This is solely looking at the percentage, the penetration, of Bitcoin versus the Fed Balance sheet over time. We also predict out to 2030, as I like to do! Power trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 1.01E-16 * x ^ 599% Prior video that analyzed Fed balance sheet exponential trendlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbmSgENk090 Prior video that analyzed BTC market cap power trendlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVKzQYtX1PY Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Apr 21, 2023 • 15min

PE61: Bill Clinton and Bitcoin (I)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixty-first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:15 The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve 01:45 Disclaimer 1: Monetary base (Total Fed assets) 03:50 Disclaimer 2: Bitcoin is analogous to more than USD base money! 04:58 Recent Fed balance sheet activity 06:15 Bitcoin market cap data 10:05 Question 1: When was the Fed last at $1 trillion? 11:47 Question 2: When was the Fed last at $500 billion? Here we look at the history of Bitcoin's market cap, and how that compares with the monetary base of the dollar. Note, the dollar is just one (certainly the strongest) fiat network in the world, but there are many other fiat currencies that have their own monetary base and are not connected to the dollar at all! Also, I explain why the monetary base is the best monetary comparison to Bitcoin. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

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