Crypto Voices

Matthew Mezinskis
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Jan 18, 2023 • 21min

PE8: Exponential trendline on bitcoin price (VI)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the eighth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:20 Bitcoin briefly 01:17 Diagram exponential trendline linear scale 02:47 Diagram exponential trendline log scale 04:03 Exponential regression formula 06:40 Exponential regression trendline 09:16 Mean 10:27 R-squared (86%) 11:46 Predictive trend 16:00 Log scale Here we run and explain an exponential trendline over the last 13+ years of bitcoin price data. Coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 0.52 * EXP (0.25% * x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 18, 2023 • 17min

PE7: Exponential trendline on gold price (V)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the seventh video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:35 Four basic trendlines 01:02 Gold briefly 03:17 Exponential regression formula 05:27 Diagram exponential trendline linear scale 06:34 Exponential regression trendline 07:50 Mean 08:55 R-squared (75%) 11:57 Predictive trend 13:55 Log scale 15:03 Non-linear R-squared caution Here we run and explain an exponential trendline over the last 50+ years of gold price data. Coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 133 * EXP (0.41% * x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 16, 2023 • 23min

PE6: Logarithmic trendline on bitcoin price (IV)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the sixth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:39 Four basic trendlines 01:17 Diagram logarithmic trendline linear scale 01:43 Diagram logarithmic trendline log scale 03:17 Trolololo's logarithmic regression 06:50 Logarithmic regression formula 09:14 Logarithmic regression trendline 10:09 Mean 14:07 R-squared (34%) 15:40 Log scale 20:41 Predictive trend Here we run and explain a logarithmic trendline over the last 13+ years of bitcoin price data. Coefficients: y = a + b * ln(x) y = y-intercept + slope * ln(x) y = -103307 + 1434624% * ln(x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 13, 2023 • 17min

PE5: Logarithmic trendline on gold price (III)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the fifth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:20 Gold briefly 01:00 Diagram logarithmic trendline linear scale 02:25 Logarithmic regression formula 06:15 Logarithmic regression line 08:50 Mean 11:20 R-squared (41%) 13:55 Predictive trend Here we run and explain a logarithmic trendline over the last 50+ years of gold price data. Coefficients: y = a + b * ln(x) y = y-intercept + slope * ln(x) y = -1184 + 33639% * ln(x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 12, 2023 • 24min

PE4: Linear trendline on bitcoin price (II)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:20 Bitcoin brief history 07:00 Linear regression formula 07:48 Diagram linear trendline linear scale 08:27 Diagram linear trendline log scale 10:55 Linear regression line 13:40 Mean 18:00 R-squared (50%) 19:37 Predictive trend Here we run and explain a linear trendline over the last 13+ years of bitcoin price data. Coefficients: y = a + b * x y = y-intercept + slope * x y = -13016 + 765% * x https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 11, 2023 • 24min

PE3: Linear trendline on gold price (I)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:15 Typical linear trendline 05:15 Four basic types of trendlines 05:50 Predictive nature of trendlines 12:03 Linear regression line 16:30 Mean 19:50 R-squared (70%) 21:47 Predictive trend Here we run and explain a linear trendline over the last 50+ years of gold price data. Coefficients: y = a + b * x y = y-intercept + slope * x y = -100 + 240% * x https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 10, 2023 • 28min

PE2: How fast do dollars grow? (II)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:40 Supply and demand 03:59 Compound annual growth rates 10:28 Doubling time 17:05 Right axis time 20:57 Do you need other datasets? 25:17 How to verify the trend is exponential? Here we cover how much physical cash and coin - these things we call dollars - exist around the world.  This covers a 105 year period, from a time when the dollar was redeemable and convertible into gold, until today, when it is not. Also, how do you think Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are going to play into this situation?  Why is physical cash still growing so quickly, if it is not "that important" today? https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Jan 9, 2023 • 27min

PE1: How many dollars are there? (I)

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:47 Dollar-gold background 05:40 Federal Reserve opened doors in 1914 13:34 Post-WWII period (Bretton Woods) 18:45 Great Moderation 22:48 Bitcoin era 25:00 What is the deal with CBDCs? Here we cover how much physical cash and coin - these things we call dollars - exist around the world.  This covers a 105 year period, from a time when the dollar was redeemable and convertible into gold, until today, when it is not. Also, how do you think Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are going to play into this situation?  Why is physical cash still growing so quickly, if it is not "that important" today? https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Dec 30, 2022 • 2h 24min

CV142: Paul Sztorc - Layer 2 Labs

Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Matthew and Alec interview Paul Sztorc, founder of Drivechain, Bitcoin Hivemind (Truthcoin), and most recently Layer 2 Labs. Paul gives an overview on Layer 2 Labs and what his team is trying to accomplish with their recent $3 million raise. Most know his efforts for years in implementing Drivechain (BIP 300) on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Hivemind as a sidechain on top of that. He is interested in implementing many other sidechains to Bitcoin as well. Listen on to learn more. Links for more info: https://twitter.com/Truthcoin https://layer2labs.com/ https://www.drivechain.info/ https://bitcoinhivemind.com/ https://www.truthcoin.info/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Site: cryptovoices.com/ Podcast & information Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for listening! Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
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Dec 13, 2022 • 1h 4min

CV141: George Selgin - Repos, reserves, cash, and CBDCs

Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Matthew interviews George Selgin, monetary economist and historian. George gives a look-back at the repo meltdown in September 2019, as well as a deeper overview on the mechanics of the repo market. This has become more important in recent years, compared to the market for bank reserves ("Federal Funds" in US Fedspeak). Why? He goes back to his favorite hobby horse (his term) which is the interest paid on those reserves by the central bank, an anomaly that never occurred before 2008, and how that has affected the entire structure of the system, from the size of the balance sheet, to the broader money markets, including the repo and Treasury markets. George gives some latest thoughts on the growth of physical currency and the monetary base, and provides warning on the importance of such, due to the effects of interest on those bank reserves (the other part of the monetary base, along with physical currency). We finish with some thoughts on CBDCs, and though we didn't have time to incorporate Bitcoin, we certainly will do so next time! Listen on to learn more. Links for more info: https://twitter.com/GeorgeSelgin https://www.cato.org/center-monetary-financial-alternatives https://www.alt-m.org/author/selgin/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Site: cryptovoices.com/ Podcast & information Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for listening! Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

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