Excess Returns

Our economy is changing. Gone are the days where the biggest companies require substantial physical assets to operate and grow their businesses. Most of the companies that dominate our economy today rely on assets like technology, brand value, and patents to power their businesses. In this episode, we look at the impact of intangible assets on value investing and investment strategies that rely on fundamentals. We discuss the challenges of valuing intangible assets, and the different approaches that can be used to do it. We also tackle the debate over whether intangible assets should be included on standard financial statements.  We hope you enjoy the discussion   ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There are many misconceptions about private equity. Most investors see it as a domain where high net worth investors and institutions earn returns that can't be achieved via public markets. Investors typically also view the success of private equity as the result of the ability of private equity firms to go in and make operational changes to businesses to unlock their true potential. But it turns out the reality is much less exciting than that. As is the case in public market investing, it turns out that fundamentals and valuation are a large driver of returns.  In this episode, we speak to Brian Chingono of Verdad Capital about the true drivers of private equity returns, and how those returns can be replicated using a systematic strategy in public markets. We also cover some other interesting areas of Verdad's research, including how high yield spreads can be used to identify opportunities for value stocks and whether bond upgrades and downgrades can be predicted via machine learning.  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VERDAD Verdad (verdadcap.com) FOLLOW BRIAN ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/verdadcap_quant ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

After a decade of struggle, the past six months have finally given value investors reasons for optimism.  Although the recent outperformance pales in comparison to the underperformance over the course of the decade, the fact that performance has improved, coupled with the arguments that a move toward increased fiscal stimulus may lead to a higher inflationary environment that would benefit value, has many value investors, including us, thinking we may have finally reached the turning point.  And market experts have also jumped on the value train, with many predicting a strong year for value.  But times like these are our most dangerous ones as investors. When we become convinced we are right, it becomes easy to miss the arguments for the other side.  So in this episode we decided to challenge ourselves and to try to make the best case we can against value investing.  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Dividend based investing strategies are very popular among investors. The ability to receive regular cash payments from the equities they own and a belief that dividend paying stocks outperform the market are both major drivers of this popularity.  But this preference for dividend stocks often exceeds the reality of the benefits they provide. In this episode, we take a look at the facts behind dividend investing. We look at how dividend-paying stocks perform over time and why the source of their outperformance may be different than many investors think. We also look at alternative ways to accomplish the goals of strategies based around dividends.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Peter Lynch is one of the most successful mutual fund managers of all time. Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. And he did it with an approach that is very unique among history's most successful investors.  In its paper Superstar Investors, AQR tried to use factors explain the historical performance of some of the best investors of all time, and Lynch's performance was the most difficult to explain using that framework.  In this episode, we look at Lynch's approach to investing and our quantitative strategy based on him, which we extracted from his book One Up On Wall Street. We also look at why his strategy is so difficult to quantify.  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is a common misconception that a good company is always a good investment. But that sometimes isn't the case. The reason for that comes down to the role that expectations play in investing. Companies with good fundamentals typically have high expectations built into their stock price, while companies with poor fundamentals typically have low expectations embedded in their price. But either way, the key for investors is identifying companies where there is a gap between expectations and reality. In this episode, we look at the importance of expectations in investing and how investors can look at this issue. We also look at some systematic ways to take advantage of the differences between expectations and reality. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

When we started our podcast late last year, we were hoping we could create something that would be educational and informative for people who follow our content. We were hoping we could take some of the lessons we have learned in running quant models over the past decade and share them with other investors who are looking to learn and improve. But one of the biggest surprises for us in the first year of the podcast, though, is how much we have learned ourselves.  We have been fortunate to interview some of the smartest investors we know, and each interview has taught us something new and expanded our understanding of some complex and interesting concepts. To bring 2020 to a close, we took a look at our five most popular interviews of the year and found the most important lesson we learned from each of them.  We bring all those lessons together in our final episode of the year.  We would like to thank everyone who took the time to listen to us this year. We hope you have a happy to safe New Year.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

No investor can match the combination of Warren Buffett's annual returns and the period of time he has been able to sustain them. Buffett has generated those returns in a variety of ways, many of which your average investor could never copy. But Buffett's greatest contribution to the investing world likely isn't his returns or his approach to picking stocks. Buffett's greatest contribution has been his willingness to help all of us become better investors. Through his writings, his annual meetings, and his general willingness to share his knowledge, Buffett has probably contributed more to educating other investors than anyone in history. In this episode, we look at some of the biggest lessons investors can learn from Buffett.  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The way economic policy is implemented has undergone some major changes in the past decade. The Federal Reserve's response to the Great Financial Crisis, and the continued quantitative easing in its aftermath, marked a significant change in the way the central bank implements monetary policy. And the fiscal policy response to the current crisis also marked a significant departure from how things have been done in the past.  In this episode we are joined by one of our favorite economic thinkers, Cullen Roche, to help us make sense of all of this. Cullen is an expert on Federal Reserve policy and one of the few people who predicted that the outcome of quantitative easing would not be the significant inflation that many thought it would. We discuss a variety of topics including why quantitative easing hasn't caused inflation, the implications of the recent massive government stimulus, Modern Monetary Theory, and the role inflation plays in the value/growth dynamic.  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  CULLEN'S BLOG Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com) FOLLOW CULLEN ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/cullenroche ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The academic research supporting the momentum factor is very strong.  But most of that research focuses on the momentum in a stock's price.  An interesting research paper written by Dashan Huang looked at the potential to enhance the excess of return of price momentum by also looking at the momentum in a firm's fundamentals. In this episode we discuss this paper and the pros and cons of combining fundamental and price momentum. We also outline the seven variable system the paper uses to calculate fundamental momentum and how it separates out firms who are showing improvements in their businesses.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau