Chain Reaction

Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region. Related Materials: Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcqTriple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash. Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion" http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war. Read More: Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2GalcywTrump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.Related Links: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.htmlhttps://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.Related links: 1. The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK2. Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y3. 'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms: http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK64. U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe