Two Blokes Trading

Rory takes a USDJPY short just before the podcast begins, but will USD/JPY tank? He explains the reasoning behind this move as well as the strong risk to reward that is favoured. Jonathan is holding off until we see 152 hit but will it be too late?The question is will Bank Of Japan intervene after removing a pledge to defend the level with offers to buy unlimited amounts of bonds.This week in the markets is Jam-packed with Data, Earnings, and everything in between. With ISM, PMI Services, NFP, FOMC, BoE and more. There is sure to be a further increase in volatility.One of the biggest stock winners so far is Amazon after earnings were released better than expected with the share price jumping 11% as the outlook seems better than initially expected. The last time the stock has had such a two day stretch was a 17% rally from November 11, 2022.The blokes look over other markets with Rory saying he is now short on Oil but would rather not be involved. There’s so many factors that could go against this such as the War in the middle east and the potential of OPEC supply, none of this can be confirmed or quantified and therefore, for now, both of the blokes agree they would rather rule it out. Data from China the US and EU also isn’t highly supportive of stronger economic conditions therefore demand for Oil may not be as strong as initially predicted.Gold has found resistance at the $2000 level after a strong run higher. Jonathan explains how the major zone of 1800/2000 looks to be in play for quite some time and its likely with a stronger dollar, Gold will remain under pressure, unless of course we see any escalations in middle east.DXY saw strong support last week from 105.50 and today at 106.00 to continue the push higher towards 107. Jonathan reiterates his long bias on USD & has been taking advantage of the cross pairs as a result. Jonathan also says with a lot of data due this week, there could be the potential for a lot of volatility and higher USD.With lots of earnings this week from McDonalds, Pfizer, PayPal, Apple, Shopify and many more, it’s going to be an interesting week!Join us live in the APP as we cover NFP this Friday!Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

In this episode Jonathan and Rory continue to evaluate the risks from the Middle East & the uncertainty in the financial markets. Also looking at higher yields and central bank action from around the globe.The war in the Middle East is still raging and shows no sign of stopping.  In the podcast Rory mentions the risk of other countries such as Iran getting involved and the potential catalysts that could being to the table.The ECB are expected to hold rates this week however the door is open in the future for hikes as higher oil prices Continue to drive prices higher says Christine Lagarde and the ECB are cautions of this.The US markets snapped a strong losing streak after better than expected earnings from Microsoft and Google. Google was down due to their cloud revenue being lower than forecast.Higher yields in the US and across the EU/GB have punished stocks in recent days with the US S&P500 breaching the 4200 support level.  Hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman announced he was covering his short bond positions and now is looking to go long bonds as these attractive yields.The Fed are almost certain not to hike rates next week however the door may be open in December as Jerome Powell is watching yields with caution.To find out more , join the free app today at app.twoblokestrading.com

In this episode the blokes look at the impact of war on the financial markets & what markets are most effected.The blokes also share their deepest condolences to the innocent people that have been effected by the war, especially the woman & children.Jonathan discusses how there is always two sides to every war & how main stream media always have an agenda, so make your own opinion through valid sources.Rory discusses how religion has & always will be a major cause in so many wars, along with the fight for power, money & resources.Jonathan shares how he was compelled to an image drawn by the famous artist Banksy, depicting the innocents of children regardless of their cultural background.While the war in the Middle East continues, the question for us traders is how does it effect the markets? Jonathan and Rory break down what exactly the implications are for now & may have in the future.While neither countries involved are major contributors to the global markets, countries such as Iran are major oil exporters which account for nearly 2% of total daily production.If they were to get involved and sanctioned, how would this impact commodity and energy markets? It would be negative and quite inflationary for markets causing a stronger dollar and weaker equities (similar to what we are seeing right now).The History books will tell us "the greater the increase in oil prices, the more likely a recession eventually unfolds."The question Jonathan wants to know is how much of this is priced in to the markets already. Unfortunately we don’t know what is priced in but what isn’t priced in is a deep escalation and involvement of Iran.If the war stopped tomorrow, we don’t think markets would react hugely positively, maybe slightly. However any escalation could be detrimental to markets.We are already seeing the cracks appear outside of the Middle East with inflation back on the rise, consumer spending strong however savings are down, credit card purchases are up and credit card delinquencies are increasing.Inflation & Interest rates remain high with no signs of slowing down with the 10yr US Bond Yield breaking above 4.9% on Wednesday.Why is all of this so important? Tune into this weeks podcast to find out more. Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

In this weeks podcast the blokes discuss the difference between technical versus fundamental traders.We also introduce Adam Harris, a long term professional in the financial markets who has now joined the team and most will already have noticed his great analysis within the app already. Adam talks us through his background and years of experience. He starts by telling us exactly how he got into trading and the process that led him down the route of predominately becoming a successful technical trader.The blokes share their opinions on their styles of trading, showing that regardless of how you analyse the markets whether that’s technical, fundamental or sentiment based, you can be still be profitable. There is a million ways to trade the financial markets its just perfecting your strategy to gain consistency over the long term. The blokes all agree that mentoring was key to success in their journey.The podcast was also recorded over the US CPI release and with a 3.7% YoY figure and MoM beating expectations, Dollar strength has since ripped back through the market causing risk off selling. While Rory couldn’t keep a good internet connection, he was able to tell us more about his view on markets this week and what a higher CPI number means for markets going forward.Following this the blokes discuss the rise in interest rates in the US & their opinion on the next US election with Adam of the opinion Biden will walk the next election due to uncertain times.Adam also discusses in the podcast his best tips for new and upcoming traders and what he recommends doing when starting out.

In this podcast, Jonathan and Rory discuss the importance of using macroeconomic indicators. During the live NFP stream that Jonathan and Rory shared via the TBT app, Rory mentioned before NFP was released how he thought there would be a larger than expected number as he read reports on indicators that suggest employment is increasing.Looking at reports such as the ISM and being able to take a collective data set of the recent initial jobless claims report, you can marry up the data and draw your own conclusions. This analysis can give you the edge when trying to forecast data releases.On this point, Jonathan mentions the importance of using your own data and your own ideas rather than relying on other people’s ideas. Jonathan says, “We see it time and time again where Investment banks have conflicting opinions and these guys are supposed to be the industry experts”.Rory also discusses the importance of not taking trade ideas directly from anyone. The main reason, it is that usually when things go wrong and its more often than not, they won’t post about it and let people know. This means people will be stuck in the trade with a losing position and won’t know when to get out.To find out more about the importance of using your own data, make sure to join the app today where this topic is heavily discussed by Rory.Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

I’m this episode, Jonathan and Rory breakdown the week ahead in the markets and discuss the moves of last week, including why gold is not so shiny for investors. The blokes also share their opinion on what markets to watch this week.The ISM PMI came in above estimates however the S&P500 didn’t manage to take much advantage, closing nearly flat on Monday. However, tech is still being driven higher by just a handful of names.Dollar continues the climb above 107 as traders wait for the NFP and ESR report on Friday to determine the US labour market conditions. The ISM said that employment was better and on Tuesday afternoon, JOLT job openings has risen higher than expected creating more openings and a stronger market.Rory discusses in the podcast how there is 28% probability of a rate hike In November however there is a 6% probability of a 50bps hike in December, any wonder the dollar is rallying.Speaking of dollar, EURUSD continues to be held lower now at 1.04 , close to parity and levels feared last year.USDJPY pushed 150 before a huge shock lower to 147.50. Word on the street that the BOJ intervened in the open market. This would have pushed rates lower monetarily and we could hear commentary from them soon.Gold now close to $1800 , what a tremendous fall it has seen since the break of 2000. A lot quicker than we anticipated, however given the dollar strength, it comes with no surprise. Are you long or short gold at $1800?Oil has seen some rejection at the low $90’s and is now back below 90 at the high 80’s. Could winter demand start to push oil higher and what are the views on OPEC? All of our analysis is covered live in the APP.We will also be covering Non Farm Payroll live in the APP on Friday, come watch us as we analysis the markets live!Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

In this episode the blokes breakdown the markets & ask the question are stocks doomed?The blokes discuss how it’s a great time to be trading! Markets are directional which presents huge opportunity to capitalise.Rory also tells us how McDonald’s was founded. Have you watched the movie about McDonalds? If not it’s a great watch for anyone with an entrepreneurial mindset. I won’t spoil it here but I do suggest to watch it.This week In markets we focus on Yields, consumer confidence, dollar strength and equities which remain pressured as market sentiment shifts!A weak bond market which is effectively pushing yields higher and strength into the dollar is playing havoc on the equity market. As of 6pm London time on Tuesday, the S&P500 was down over -1.1% as dollar continued to surge and yields on the 10yr pushed past 4.5%.Fed Member Neel Kashkari reiterated his statement that he expects another rate hike this year however that was closely followed by a statement saying he thinks there’s a 60% chance of a soft landing. I feel like he’s been told to say this as markets reacted the first time and ignored him on the latter.China is also facing problems with the housing market under pressure and the major Evergreen defaulting on a 4 billion yuan payment which is putting pressure on the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities which is also spilling into European and US markets.Oil continues to hold at higher levels even though it is somewhat softer the last few days. Some economists have warned if oil exploration in the US is not more heavily invested in then there is risk of an under supply and prices pushed past $120 and even as high as $150.Some favourite stock picks this week are still short ideas on UAL from Rory as higher fuel costs and potential for lower fares coupled with lower demand could impact top and bottom line. Jonathan is keeping an eye on MSFT to see whether their latest investment into the AI race will allow the stock to find some support.Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

Jonathan and Rory dive into the facts to help understand if there will be a global recession coming soon? The blokes share their opinions on the future outlook across a global level.In the podcast, they mention how we have avoided a crash in the economy despite higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis.  Rory discusses what caused inflation in the first place as well as some home truths to why wages unfortunately will never catch up with prices, even in the long run.The blokes also talk about how different geopolitical events can impact countries and how this filters down into markets and what traders need to be aware of.Understanding that there are always three sides to any story is the key to understanding the market. All media across the world is biased towards an opinion or agenda but only the truth will allow you a clear vision to best predict the future.Rory explains it is up to you to decide on what information to listen to, plus the importance of listening to all sides and how this can be brought back to trading.Download the TBT APP now to chat LIVE with the Blokes! 

In this episode, Jonatan and Rory discuss how the DXY is on a 8 week winning streak, could it make a ninth?The blokes analyse some last weeks action in markets including, the US CPI print coming in hotter than expected along with the influence it had on Equities and FX pairs last week, plus the impact it could have on the FOMC this Wednesday.The Blokes also talk about how the ECB increased rates another 25bps to 4% and signalled to the market that they are likely done while they also revised up inflation forecasts, while lowering growth for 2023 and 2024.This week in markets, the Fed interest rate decision is on Wednesday night and Rory talks us through what to listen out for including, what their inflation forecast will look like, what the FOMC expects in terms of growth, as well as their expectations of interest rates within the speeches and the all-important Dot Plot.EU stocks have dropped off following the decline on wall street on Friday and Société general dropped 11% after the bank cut its outlook on profitability.The Blokes also offer their thoughts on the BOE interest rate decision due on Thursday & the effect this could have on the GBP/USD pair! Goldman Sachs expect it to be the last hike. Some expect FTSE100 to lag global stocks next year however with the index already undervalued and oil prices increasing, could the giants such as BP and Shell look to hold the index higher?Rory and Jonatan also talk through Netflix and United Airlines & why these two stocks are on their watchlist for this week.Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

In this podcast we introduce Rajan Dhall & discuss the mindset of a successful trader. Raj has an extensive history and career in trading adding further value to our community, which we discuss in the podcast.Rajan talks about trading psychology and the importance of it and describes how retail traders can become better traders by simply switching their mindset. He also talks about how retail traders can develop their own strategy around a work life balance. Raj also talks about what got him into trading, sharing his very interesting story of how his journey started as a fitness trainer at J.P Morgan.Jonathan shares his thoughts on how retail traders battle with the psychology of trading & how traders can adapt a trading style that suits the individual. Jonathan also shares his journey of this and how he overcame the process. Jonathan firmly believes anyone can become successful in trading regardless of their background, once they are willing to learn, have the right information & follow the right process.Raj also talks about the average success rate of many institutional traders being lower than expected & how this opened up his eyes to change his approach. Raj also discusses matching the process with the personality and the importance this can have on a trader. Ragan offers tips for traders at all stages of their journey, discussing what holds traders back & how to overcome this.Rajan will now be sharing his analysis, ideas & expertise in the two blokes trading app, for our community.Download the FREE Two Blokes Trading APP now!