The Briefing Room

‘The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely,’ said President Joe Biden six weeks ago. This prediction has not aged well. One harrowing scene this week saw some Afghans trying to escape their new reality by clinging to the wheels of a US Air Force plane as it took off from Kabul airport. Some of them fell to their deaths.Amidst growing international condemnation of the United States, President Biden has remained unrepentant about the end of the US mission in Afghanistan, arguing it was never about nation building or creating a unified democracy. It was about preventing a terrorist attack on American homeland. But what impact will events in Afghanistan this week have on the President's future foreign policy decisions?Joining David Aaronovitch in The Briefing Room are:Alex Ward, National Security reporter at PoliticoDr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US & Americas programme at Chatham House Madiha Afzal, Brookings Institution Prof Michael Clarke, former Director General of RUSI and Professor of Defence Studies at King's College LondonProducers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sharon Hemans Editor: Penny Murphy Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

The Taliban’s relentless march across Afghanistan continues – taking control of provincial capitals, rural districts and the financially lucrative border crossings. As the world watches on with increasing concern US President Biden has told Afghan leaders that it’s their battle to win and that they need to come together and fight for their nation. The female Afghan politician and diplomat Shukria Barakzai warned this week that her country is experiencing a ‘human catastrophe’ and Afghanistan will provide a safe haven for militants, which will cause the world huge problems. There’s also the prospect of a huge refugee crisis. But how are the Taliban succeeding and who’s helping them?David Aaronovitch is joined in The Briefing Room by: Laurel Miller, Director of International Crisis Group’s Asia Programme Ashley Jackson, Co-Director, Centre for the Study of Armed Groups Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and authorProducers: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Sound engineer: James Beard Editor: Penny Murphy

Only a handful of small states officially recognise Taiwan as an independent country, though in many ways this democratic territory has the trappings of an independent nation. But Taiwan's giant neighbour, China, argues that the island is a renegade province that will one day reunify with the mainland - and Beijing reserves the right to use force to accomplish that if need be. In recent years the Chinese have built up their military forces substantially, including many aimed at Taiwan, and the rhetoric from Beijing remains that Taiwan belongs to China. Meanwhile calls within Taiwan for full independence have grown louder. The United States says it is committed to preserving the ambiguous status quo in the region and to opposing any Chinese coercion of the Taiwanese. Japan, too, has recently become more outspoken about supporting the US military forces in any possible conflict over Taiwan. So could the dispute over Taiwan trigger a war?Joining David Aaronovitch in the Briefing Room are:Margaret Hillenbrand, Associate Professor of modern Chinese culture and literature at the University of Oxford.Dr. Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House.J Michael Cole, Taipei-based Senior Fellow with the Taiwan Studies programme at Nottingham University.Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington DC.Producers: John Murphy, Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight, Jim Frank Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Jasper Corbett

A supermarket chain is offering £1000 welcoming handshakes to new truck drivers - just one indication of the shortages in the haulage industry. The Road Haulage Association says that there is now a shortfall of 100,000 lorry drivers across the UK and other sectors of the economy are also finding it difficult to find workers, including in hospitality, construction and IT. The pandemic has shaken things up and Brexit has seen thousands of EU workers returning home - but is this a short-term problem or are there deeper structural changes happening?Joining David Aaronovitch in the Briefing Room:Dougie Rankine, editor of Truck and Driver magazine. Katherine Price, news editor of The Caterer.Tony Hill, Director of the Institute for Employment Studies.Yael Selfin, Chief Economist, KMPG UK.Torsten Bell, Chief Executive at the Resolution Foundation.Jane Gratton, Head of People Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce.Producers: John Murphy, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight. Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Jasper Corbett

Right across the world unpredictable and extreme weather has led to devastating consequences: homes washed away by floods in Europe and China with hundreds dead; extreme heat and giant wildfires in North America and in Siberia, and we now hear that the Amazon rainforest is emitting more carbon dioxide than it is soaking up. Scientists are clear that man-made climate change is playing a significant role in all this. In November senior representatives from 197 countries plus the European Union are supposed to be gathering for COP26 in Glasgow. Can this gathering - and the pronouncements made there - help save us from extreme climate change?Joining David Aaronovitch in the Briefing Room are:Alina Averchenkova, Distinguished Fellow from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.Michael Jacobs, Professor at Sheffield University’s Political Economy Research Institute.Carly McLachlan, Professor of Climate and Energy Policy, Manchester University, and Director of Tyndall Manchester.Dr. James Dyke, Senior Lecturer in Global Systems, University of Exeter.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: John Murphy, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight. Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Jasper Corbett.Image: People wading through flood waters following heavy rains in Zhengzhou in China's central Henan province. Credit: STR/AFP via Getty Images

Some are calling it Freedom Day. Others are much more circumspect. The lifting of Covid restrictions on 19th July in England is, to a certain extent, an experiment. The UK has one of the best vaccination rates in the world and far fewer people are now dying from coronavirus. But it also has one of the fastest rising infection rates. The development of the vaccines so quickly was, undoubtedly, an extraordinary scientific feat. It did also lead some scientists to predict that we would be through this pandemic by now. So why hasn't that happened? And what do we know about the risks involved in lifting restrictions now? Joining David Aaronovitch in the Briefing Room are:Azra Ghani, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London Tom Chivers, Science journalist and author Linda Bauld, Professor of public health at Edinburgh University Thomas Hale, Associate Professor in Public Policy, University of OxfordProducers: John Murphy, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Studio Manager: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Jasper Corbett

European Union and European Economic Area citizens living in the UK should have applied for so-called settled status in Britain before July 1st. Over five million people have applied - a significantly higher figure than the British government originally estimated would be eligible. But there are fears that, for various reasons, tens of thousands of people failed to meet the deadline. In theory, this means they could lose their right to work, rent housing, or access certain hospital treatment, and are potentially subject to removal from the country. UK citizens living in EU countries are also having to prove their status. To examine what has happened so far - to EU citizens in the UK and to UK citizens in the EU - and what happens next, David Aaronovitch is joined in the Briefing Room by:Mark Easton, the BBC's Home Affairs Editor Michaela Benson, Professor of Sociology at the University of Lancaster Catherine Barnard, Professor of European Union and Labour Law, Cambridge University. Jill Rutter, former Treasury official and senior fellow at the Institute for Government.Producers: John Murphy, Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight Editor: Jasper Corbett

You might receive an innocuous looking email – it might even look like it’s from your boss – asking you to click on a link. Watch out! It could be the start of a ransomware attack. Over the last year cybersecurity experts say that the number of ransomware attacks has grown exponentially. During the pandemic lockdowns criminal hackers have been able to exploit the vulnerabilities inherent in the increase in homeworking to infiltrate computer systems, shut them down and then demand a ransom to restore services, or even to stop publishing data they’ve stolen. Along with the increased volume of attacks, the level of ransom demands has grown. Using new technology and techniques, this has become a lucrative business for international criminal gangs, with individuals, businesses, schools, hospitals and charities all targeted. Joining David Aaronovitch in the Briefing Room to discuss ransomware attacks are:Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and Editor of Chatham House's Journal of Cyber Policy Sadie Creese, Professor of Cyber Security at the University of Oxford Geoff White, investigative journalist and author and presenter of the BBC’s podcast series, The Lazarus Heist Susan Landau, Bridge Professor of Cyber Security and Policy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the School of Engineering, Department of Computer Science, Tufts University Producers: John Murphy, Sally Abrahams and Imogen Serwotka Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Jasper Corbett

Gaza is one of the most crowded places on earth. Most of its two million residents live in refugee camps and around half are unemployed. Gaza is governed by Hamas, an organisation that many governments regard as a terrorist group. Hamas extended its control over the whole of Gaza in 2007, after it ousted Fatah, which is now based in the West Bank. Since then Hamas has been involved in a number of conflicts with Israel.. Its military capability has grown over the years. Joining David Aaronovitch to explore who Hamas are and what they want are:Jennifer Jefferis, Teaching Professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies program. She is also author of Hamas: Terrorism, Governance, and its Future in Middle East Politics. Dr Nina Musgrave from the Centre for Defence Studies, Kings College, London. She is the author of a forthcoming book, Hamas and the Arab Uprisings: resistance, allegiance, and the departure from Syria. Fabian Hinz, an independent open source intelligence analyst who specialises in Middle East missiles. Natan Sachs, Director of the Centre for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, Washington. Producers: John Murphy, Sally Abrahams, Luke Radcliff Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Jasper Corbett

Hong Kong has long been at the centre of a tussle between mainland China and the outside world - certainly since the British took it as a colony in 1842. That heralded more than a century of "shame" for the Chinese - but in 1997 the British handed Hong Kong back to China with internationally agreed conditions. The so-called "one country, two systems" principle was meant to last until 2047, but in recent years Beijing has tightened its control over Hong Kong. Major pro-democracy demonstrations in 2019 were quashed and, in 2020, the authorities introduced a controversial and wide-ranging National Security Law to Hong Kong. Over recent weeks pro-democracy campaigners have been locked up, troublesome journalists have been censured or fired from their jobs, teachers have been told they will have to explain the benefits of the National Security Law to their pupils. Some argue that this is the end of Hong Kong. So why is Beijing and its supporters in the Hong Kong legislature taking this action now, and where might it end?Joining David Aaronovitch on this week's programme: Hugh Davies, a former diplomat who negotiated the return of Hong KongMary Hui, journalist for QuartzYuen Chan, Senior Lecturer, City University of LondonCharles Parton, Senior Associate Fellow at Royal United Services InstituteProducers: John Murphy, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Jasper Corbett