NGI’s Hub & Flow

Chilly winter weather has led to a surge in natural gas demand, pushing prices higher than the previous year. Analysts discuss how shrinking storage surpluses and production disruptions, like wellhead freeze-offs, shape the market's future. Increased LNG demand is expected to create further shifts, while the dynamics between Canadian and U.S. prices reveal cautious producer strategies. The potential impact of new tariffs and North American exports to Mexico adds another layer of complexity to this volatile landscape.

Steve Blair, Managing Director of Institutional Energy Sales at Paragon Global Markets LLC, shares insights on the shifting landscape of natural gas prices this winter. He discusses the impact of increased production and storage levels on market dynamics, emphasizing how extreme cold weather could drive demand. Blair also highlights potential wild cards for 2025, such as tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex, shaping the future of the natural gas market.

Natural gas demand continues to defy forecasts calling for renewables to halt the fuel's growth in the Lower 48. That’s no surprise to one clean energy investor, Prithvi Ventures’ Rakesh Radhakrishnan, who spoke with NGI’s senior markets editor Chris Newman about how lifecycle costs and other factors would continue to play a huge role in decision making for power resources.

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with about 75% of the country’s natural gas originating from the Lower 48 states. Cross-border energy trade in 2023 reached $66.5 billion, and imports of U.S. natural gas have increased for years as Mexico’s domestic production has decreased.  With Mexico President Sheinbaum’s recent inauguration, however, the role of state-owned energy companies has been put in question. Now, with former President Trump’s re-election, NGI’s Andrew Baker, senior editor, sits down with Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, to discuss how the cross-border energy trade may evolve. Baker and Lenton dive into the implications for Mexico’s export projects should Trump reverse the Biden administration’s LNG permit pause, as well as the outlook for natural gas demand in both Mexico and the United States as nearshoring and power generation needs evolve.

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations.  Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.

NGI LNG editors Jamison Cocklin and Jacob Dick discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector. They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump's tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. exports.

Graham Bain, an expert in carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS), leads Enverus Intelligence Research's subsurface group focused on energy transition. He discusses the ambitious goal of capturing 500 million tons of carbon per year in the U.S., largely funded by supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Bain highlights the challenges of permitting and public opposition but underscores the Gulf Coast's advantages for these projects. He also examines the economic dynamics of CCUS, including the potential impacts of recent policy changes on carbon pricing.

NGI senior markets editor Jodi Shafto interviews Andy Huenefeld, managing partner at Pinebrook Energy Advisors and contributor to The Energy Buyers Guide report. Huenefeld discusses key factors for the Lower 48 winter heating season that begins on Nov. 1.

NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, sits down with one of the leading voices in Mexico's energy sector and the former head of Comisión Reguladora de Energía, Guillermo García Alcocer. The two discuss what could be on the horizon as Claudia Sheinbaum takes the presidential office in Mexico on Oct. 1, including potential shifts in Mexico’s energy regulatory bodies. In addition, with the Sheinbaum administration’s plans for transitioning Mexico’s electric generation mix coming to a head with rising energy demand, García Alcocer explains what could be required of both domestic natural gas supplies as well as U.S. imports. How could Mexico’s electricity, exploration and production, and LNG sectors be impacted by nearshoring? How could Mexico’s relationship with the United States be impacted as the two work to build their economies?

With natural gas prices having hovered around $2/MMBtu through much of 2024, NGI’s Pat Rau, senior vice president for Research & Analysis, delves into what may happen with producer activity moving into next year. Publicly traded producers have been on a tight leash the last five years in terms of production growth, he notes. With new LNG export capacity around the corner, however, publicly traded Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms may push annual gas production above 5% year/year growth in 2025. Rau highlights other key developments at the end of 2024, particularly for Permian Basin E&Ps.  Meanwhile, as discussions on artificial intelligence-driven data centers turned the tide on estimates for peak natural gas-fired generation earlier this year, Rau covers the latest prognostications for the emerging demand source.