Beyond Politics

Matt Robison discusses why Kamala Harris is more likely than not to win, even if he (and we) can't feel confident about it. And no matter what happens, after a difficult November to come, why there's hope ahead. 00:00 Introduction and Election Day Predictions 01:27 Media Advantage: TV and Digital Ads 06:38 Ground Game: Mobilizing Voters 09:58 Polling Manipulations and Their Impact 17:18 Why Confidence is Still Shaky 20:01 Preparing for Post-Election Challenges 22:08 Conclusion: Nauseous Optimism

For our last pre-election round table panel we explore whether the unhinged racist rally from Donald Trump over the weekend really will make a critical difference in the election. Also, we each took a swing at giving our closing arguments in the campaign. And finally, we give our tips for what to look for on Tuesday night to get a sense of what happened and who's going to win. 00:50 Trump's Racist Rally and Its Impact 03:02 Latino Voters and Trump's Influence 08:08 Biden's Gaffe and Public Reaction 12:39 Closing Arguments: Why Vote for Harris 19:45 Reflecting on Political Choices 20:54 A Dream of the Capitol 22:08 Election Night Preparations 23:13 Analyzing Swing States 24:09 Campaign Experiences 27:10 Election Night Strategies 33:42 Election Night Snacks and Humor 34:33 Concluding Remarks

This week we're talking about the factors that are going to tip the election one way or the other in the final few days, as we're down to a very, very few voters who ultimately hold our fate in their hands. To try to get some insight I wanted to ask my friend, Sam Harris, who hosts one of the fastest growing and most popular psychology podcasts on earth. It's called Growth Mindset and it's a really interesting dive in each episode into a different idea from psychology and how you can apply it to what you do. So what is REALLY going to push the final undecided voters in the final days? 03:45 Heuristics and Decision Making 07:14 Impact of Recent Events on Voter Decisions 12:41 Trump's Unique Appeal 19:27 The Role of Podcasts in Campaigns 32:32 Collective Dissatisfaction and Political Change 35:36 Conclusion: Reflecting on Progress

We are about to find out if Kamala Harris' biggest advantage is going to make the winning difference: a subject I cover in depth in my new column in Newsweek today. One person who knows quite a lot about it and who believes that the answer is yes is Matt Wiley, a Republican political consultant and former executive director of the Massachusetts Republican party who has managed many Senate campaigns. He lays out the case for why he not only thinks Harris' advantage is going to make a difference, but why he feels confident that Trump is going to lose. He also explains how Trump has destroyed the party that he believes in and how both Republicans and Democrats might change course after the election. 02:54 The Importance of Ground Game 07:21 Random Factors in Elections 09:19 Republican Party Challenges 18:05 Trump's Campaign Strategy 22:18 Polling and Election Predictions 24:34 The Future of the Republican Party 25:08 Challenges for the Democratic Party 27:39 Concerns About the 2024 Election 31:16 The Importance of Checks and Balances 33:52 The Aftermath of the Election 40:37 Hope for America's Future

Right now the F word is all over the news. Donald Trump's longest serving chief of staff, retired four-star Marine general John Kelly, said that Donald Trump is literally the dictionary definition of a "fascist" and Kamala Harris agreed. So is this going to be the Harris campaign's closing argument in the final 10 days? And should it be? Also, the quiet campaign that Democrats are starting to whisper into the ears of Republican women, especially women in Republican areas.

Where are we with two weeks to go? That's what my good friend, legendary radio broadcaster, Howard Monroe wanted to ask me on his show yesterday. And so we ran through all of it. Where do things stand? What could they turn on in the end? And is there hope for Democrats, as the polls have seemed to shift very slightly in Donald Trump's direction? And before we got into any of that, Howard wanted to talk about texting. What is the effect of all of these fundraising texts and emails that we're all constantly getting, do they work? And I suggested that they might be working kind of, but they might also be having a really destructive long term effect that no one is really talking about. 00:23 The Impact of Fundraising Texts 03:22 The Science Behind Political Messaging 11:58 The Final Countdown to the Election 14:01 The Butterfly Effect in Elections 16:36 Trump's Recent Behavior and Public Perception 17:56 Economic Plans and Public Opinion 19:50 Polling Trends and Voter Behavior 27:44 The Final Countdown to Election Day

Jason Fields, Deputy Opinion Editor at Newsweek, shares the five sources of fresh insights in politics and current affairs that are worth spending your time on, give new insight or just freshen up what you thought you knew. Also, is Kamala Harris pulling off a major vanishing act? What's up with the Elon Musk's bizarre, illegal scheme to help Trump that came to light over the weekend? And how have things changed in the way we do political discourse in America? 00:40 Interview with Jason Fields: Insights from a Newsroom Veteran 01:32 Kamala Harris: The Vanishing Act 06:12 Trump's Unpredictable Political Landscape 10:20 Elon Musk's Controversial Moves 14:45 The True Believers vs. The Grift Class 19:33 The Age Dilemma 20:02 The Evolution of Political Debate 23:27 The Browser Tab Phenomenon 24:48 Newsweek's Diverse Opinions 29:20 Top Writers and Their Impact 37:17 Election Predictions and Reflections

We just crossed an invisible line in the 2024 election. Ever since the presidential debate, Kamala Harris has held a small but steady lead in the critical swing state polls. That made her the favorite to win in the election, even by a small amount. But this week that forecast slipped away. So we ask: is this really happening? Is this really a situation where Trump is now the favorite to win? Alicia laid out a case that it will not end up that close. And she remains confident that Trump cannot and will not win. We also talked about the US political impact of the death of the Hamas leader and Kamala Harris' big Fox News interview. And at the end we give you the definitive readout on Donald Trump's 39 minutes of straight dancing at a rally. 00:00 Election Forecast Shifts: Trump Takes the Lead 01:26 International News: Death of Hamas Leader 06:31 Kamala Harris's Fox News Interview 10:47 Media Bias and Its Impact on Elections 23:03 Polling Numbers and Forecasts 24:25 Alicia's Analysis: Trump's Chances in the Election 28:29 Ground Game: Harris vs. Trump 31:41 The Role of Field Operations 41:44 Trump's Dance Party and Final Thoughts

What if I told you that we're looking at polling numbers in the wrong way? We're all inundated with polling right now as we enter the final three weeks of the 2024 election, and we're used to looking at those polls with one question in mind. Who's ahead? But today's guest says we shouldn't be looking at the margin. We should be looking at the share of the vote that each candidate is getting. And that tells us a LOT more about what's going to happen in the election. Our guest is Nate Moore, a public opinion expert who writes for the American Enterprise Institute and the Liberal Patriot. 00:59 The Importance of Vote Share 04:20 Current Polling Trends and Predictions 09:16 The Pennsylvania Problem 16:11 The Blue Shift Phenomenon 19:40 Polling Methodologies and Their Impact 26:33 Impact of Mark Robinson Scandal 29:21 The Butterfly Effect in Elections 32:26 Electoral System and Party Dynamics 38:36 Key Races to Watch 40:42 Election Night Indicators

Kamala Harris has every advantage -- money, ads, volunteers -- but is stuck in polling against Donald Trump. Matt, Paul and Alicia explore what's going on. We also delve into Bob Woodward's explosive claims about Trump's secret interactions with Putin during the COVID pandemic. Also, a friendly fight breaks out on misinformation in politics. And finally, a look at the wackiest unfounded conspiracy theory circulating online these days, plus our parody (note: you do actually have to cast your vote by Election Day people!) of the kind of misinformation that's out there. 00:00 Introduction: Why Are We Stuck? 00:59 Debating Lies and Misinformation in Politics 12:20 The 2024 Election Stalemate 22:41 Trump's Secret Conversations with Putin 32:03 Conspiracy Theories and Parody