Bloomberg Surveillance

John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Adviser to President Trump, says that the U.S. needs to make sure that Russia stays of out Belarus. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO & Portfolio Manager, expects the physical global economy to do much better than the global services economy. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Director of the U.S. and Americas Programme, says the goal of the Democratic National Convention is to get voters excited about the Biden/Harris ticket, not just to defeat President Trump. Marta Wosińska, Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy Deputy Director of Policy, says individuals who are not in high-risk demographics will probably not receive a Covid-19 vaccine until the spring of 2021.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Bailin, Citi Private Bank Chief Investment Officer, says corporate earnings and global liquidity will provide a tailwind for stocks going forward. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says several more months of fiscal benefits would be helpful to the economy before it can be self-sustaining. David Riley, BlueBay Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says it will be difficult for Europe to sustain a strong recovery because it is still dependent on global growth and trade. Lupin Rahman, PIMCO Global Head of EM Sovereign Credit, says the Covid-19 pandemic has been a liquidity shock for the bulk of emerging markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tony Dwyer, Cannacord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, says a negative feedback loop will become great enough that lawmakers in Washington will reach a stimulus deal. Lisa Hornby, Schroder Investment U.S. Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says there is a tremendous dislocation between where markets are trading today and what the underlying economy tells us. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, says the chances of seeing a broad-based solution regarding President Trump's ban of WeChat is quite low. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says the recent spike in Covid-19 cases has not flowed through the labor market yet. Jason Furman, Harvard Professor and Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama Administration, says it is unlikely that an economic stimulus deal from Congress will be reached this month.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jared Woodard, BofA Securities Research Investment Committee Head, expects continued volatility in markets until there is compromise on stimulus measures in Washington. Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas Head of Commodity-Markets Strategy, believes there will be another gold rally in 2021. James Bevan, CCLA Chief Investment Officer, says equities will grind higher from here. Jeffrey Wright, Eurasia Group U.S. Analyst, says Kamala Harris was the safe pick for Joe Biden’s running mate. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says cyclicality will be the winning play over the longer term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Generalist Portfolio Manager, says it is best to look toward the U.S. and Asia in terms of investing in equity markets over the next five years. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says the need for another fiscal stimulus package is now a matter of "life and death." Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, believes the odds of Republicans and Democrats compromising on an economic stimulus package have decreased. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, discusses the life and legacy of Brent Scowcroft.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daniel Alpert, Westwood Capital Managing Partner, says the fourth quarter could reveal a financial crisis trickled from a systemic one due to households not being able to pay their rent and mortgages. Mark Zandi, Moody’s Chief Economist, says the unemployment rate will be around fourteen percent rather than ten once individuals who have stepped out of the workforce return. Diana Amoa, JPMorgan Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says broad dollar dynamics matter for emerging market currencies across Asia and Europe.Dr. Jonathan Quick, The Rockefeller Foundation Managing Director of Pandemic Response, Preparedness, and Prevention, says we don't have herd immunity yet.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says virus relief talks are stalemated. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says today's payrolls report gives ammunition for another round of fiscal support. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says although nonfarm payroll numbers are positive, we need to watch underemployment figures. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief U.S. Economist, says this stronger-than-expected jobs report heightens the focus on the negotiations over another stimulus bill.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief Market Strategist, says the dollar cannot weaken further unless emerging market economies are stabilized. Andrew Bailey, Bank of England Governor, says negative rates remain in their toolbox. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of Economics, says we should expect labor market activity to accelerate in August. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, says technology and communications are overweight right now because investors are looking for places to put their money. Piotr Matys, Rabobank Emerging Markets Strategist, says a weaker Lira is going to have significant inflationary consequences for Turkey.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says the United States is much less interested in the Middle East than before because it is now the world's largest energy producer. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, says you can expect to see a sustainable economic recovery in the next six to twelve months. Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican from Louisiana, says Dr. Fauci's positions on lockdown measures are evolving as we understand the scope of the pandemic. Sarah Hindlian, Macquarie Analyst, says there are legitimate concerns of consumer data collection regarding TikTok given the tensions between the U.S. and China. Jacob J. Lew, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, discusses the politics behind negotiations on the next round of U.S. stimulus.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist, says inflation may be coming more from deglobalization and large fiscal spending rather than monetary policy.Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Strategist, says markets are pricing in yield curve control. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says we may still have an unemployment rate above 9% by the end of this year. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner and Senior Research Analyst, explains how TikTok could become Microsoft's deal of the decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.