What Goes Up

Investors have a lot to worry about: Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, Covid-19 and China’s lockdowns reigniting supply-chain woes— the list goes on. As a result, many money managers have ratcheted down their expectations for stock returns this year. But what if fears of a possible U.S. recession are overblown, and the second half turns out better than expected? Given still-strong earnings from corporate America, things may not end up as bad as some are predicting. Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive and co-founder of Defiance ETFs, joins this week’s episode of What Goes Up to talk about a potentially rosier future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been difficult for even the most-seasoned veterans to discern a market message right now. Oil’s up one day and stocks fall. The next day, crude prices rise and so do stocks. Or bonds rally, and so do equities, and then the reverse happens just a few days later. Peter van Dooijeweert, managing director of multi-asset solutions at Man Group, joined this week's "What Goes Up" podcast to talk about that and the right asset classes to be in as the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to further separate the world’s economies, and how a 20-year-long backlash to globalization is causing the U.S. to fall behind. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Bianco, chief investment officer of the Americas for fund manager DWS Group, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his cautious near-term outlook for the stock market: “We're quite concerned about the longevity of this cycle. I feel as if this cycle has aged quickly. It's aged mostly from very high inflation, much earlier than you typically see in the first couple of years of a new economic expansion.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave Olsen, president and chief investment officer of Jump Trading Group, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his firm’s investment in cryptocurrency markets, and why it spent $320 million to rescue a project called Wormhole after hackers made off with 120,000 tokens known as “wrapped Ether.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled that six more such increases are likely this year—essentially fulfilling what markets were already pricing in. Bloomberg’s Edward Harrison and Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors join this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the ramifications of the expected Fed move for financial markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The OPEC+ oil cartel may not ramp up oil production enough to offset the loss of Russian supply that has sent crude above $100 a barrel, according to Javier Blas. Blas, the co-author of “The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources” and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the global energy supply shock. One highlight of the conversation: “Putin has been talking to Mohammed bin Salman, who is the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. And they have been talking about energy and energy cooperation. So I think that OPEC may not come to the rescue this time, just because they're just working with the Russians.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When assessing what a political leader is going to do, Marko Papic doesn’t pay much attention to what the person’s desires are. Instead, he looks at what he calls “material constraints.” In other words, what factors will limit the leader’s ability to get what he or she wants. To Papic, the chief strategist at hedge-fund seeding firm Clocktower Group, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is ignoring his material constraints with the invasion of Ukraine. And ultimately, he says, that could lead to Putin’s downfall. Papic joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the war and its effects on markets. “I give Putin 12 months, and I’m taking the under,” said Papic, the author of “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares International Ltd., joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss this year’s collapse in cryptocurrencies and how traditional financial institutions are growing more comfortable with the asset class’s volatility.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Atwater, the consultant and finance professor who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” to describe the rebound from the 2020 recession, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how a wide disparity in consumer confidence could affect the economy and markets. One thing that’s caught his eye lately: A troubling move out of stock-market investing and into online gambling among young people.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.