KAOS THEORY

Michael Every, Rabobank's Global Strategist, delves into the decline of the post-WWII Liberal World Order and the rise of Economic Statecraft. He discusses the historical context of power shifts, particularly the challenges posed by China’s demographic and economic strategies. Every explains the implications of U.S. trade barriers and tariffs as tools to reshape global dynamics. He also highlights the maritime capabilities gap between the U.S. and China, emphasizing how this affects geopolitical tensions and the future of international governance.

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast collaboration between Grant Williams and me that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.11/9/24: Episode 8 — Barry StraussHistory might not always repeat, but it certainly rhymes.Internal divisiveness, external threats, border crises, epidemics, inflation/currency debasement, wealth inequality — these challenges all might sound recent and familiar, but they faced also Ancient Rome. Barry Strauss, best-selling author of many books on ancient history as well as Senior Fellow at Hoover and Professor Emeritus at Cornell, shares lessons of resiliency and longevity from Ancient Rome.Barry Strauss is a Corliss Page Dean Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution as well as the Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor in Humanistic Studies Emeritus at Cornell University.Strauss is a recognized authority on the subject of leadership and the lessons that can be learned from the experiences of the greatest political and military leaders of the ancient world (Caesar, Hannibal, Alexander, among many others). These lessons apply to business and government leaders of today who are faced with complex issues that are both challenging and often defy easy solutions. In addition to writing eight books, Strauss has spoken at the Hoover Institution, the Center for European Policy Analysis and many universities, institutes and war colleges here and abroad as well as for AXA Investment Managers and Cornell Executive Business Education. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and the L.A. Times. Most recently, Strauss has been interviewed on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, A&E, the History Channel, the BBC and PBS.This episode has been long in the planning, and Grant and I are thrilled to finally welcome Barry Strauss to Kaos Theory to discuss the lessons of Ancient Rome as they pertain to modern day Geopolitics.Where you can find Barry Strauss:Website: https://barrystrauss.com/Amazon Store: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Barry-Strauss/author/B0045ANWJM?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1&qid=1731250431&sr=8-1&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=trueFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/barrystrauss.authorX: https://x.com/barrystraussLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-strauss-8848702/Show Notes:I usually don’t do this, but because I’m a huge fan of Roman history, I thought I would provide the outline from my show preparation notes for those of you interested. We covered a lot of topics (boldfaced) but not all of the topics below, and perhaps we will get Barry back in the future to delve a bit deeper:* MOTIVATION - What can Ancient Rome teach us about today?* Defining “Ancient Rome”* End of Republic: 27 BC* Constantine the Great 306 AD* End of Western Empire 476 AD* Sack of Constantinople 1204 AD* End of Byzantine Empire 1453 AD* Reasons for Longevity* Role of Institutions/Succession Mechanisms* Institutions* Byzantine Empire is example on the resilience of the structure* Education* Pragmatism* Role of Leadership* Antiquitas podcast: “Augustus = Clausewitz in a toga”* Ten Caesars list* Role of Geography/Borders* Importance of Geography* US much better than Ancient Rome* Naval supremacy – Highlight The War That Made the Roman Empire and the Battle of Actium* Borders* Hadrian’s Wall / Antonine Wall* Aurelian Walls* Theodosian Walls* Role of Climate Change/Disease* Antonine Plague* Late Antique Little Ice Age during 3rd Century* 536 AD Climate Catastrophe causing GLOBAL COOLING* Massive volcanic event* Justinianic Plague* Crop patterns provoking steppe tribe migrations* Barry’s Theory: US is extension of British Empire* One political system is so strong and it broke off and remade itself* Rome: Republic -> Empire* US: Empire -> Republic* “Messy” Democracy or Benevolent Autocracy – False Choice?* PARALLELS – Where are we today?* Late Republic Analogs:* Marius vs. Sulla Civil War* Gracchi Rise of Populism* Caesar – Rise of Autocracy* Many fear Trump as a Caesar character* Early/Mid Empire Analogs:* Expansionist vs. Settled Empire* Augustus -> Trajan: Expansionist?* Hadrian and on: Isolationist?* Parallels to Globalism vs. Isolationism shift today* End of Pax Romana Analogs:* Travails of Marcus Aurelius – Foreshadowing?* Plague, Invaders on 2 fronts, Insurrection* Crisis of the 3rd Century* Parallel Issues:* Widespread epidemic/plague* Internal divisiveness* Multiple external threats* Porous borders leading to building of walls* Inflation/Currency Debasement* Nero’s spending programs and debasement * Vespasian’s fiscal prudence gives hope* Debasement continues under Pius/Marcus Aurelius and later* Wealth Inequality* Great wealth inequality by Trajan’s time despite Vespasian fiscal prudence * Leaders* MK: Trump reminds me of Aurelian* Barry: Trump reminds me of Diocletian* Later (Byzantine) Empire Analogs* Challenges during Justinian’s reign in 6th Century* Post-Basil II decline* 11th Century decline leading to Crusades and Sack of Constantinople* LESSONS FOR TODAY* Antiquitas Comparisons of Leaders* Augustus - George Washington/Steve Jobs* Tiberius - John Adams/Tim Cook* Obama/Trump parallels?* Barry: Don’t underestimate the resilience of the US* Lessons for today’s US/China Great Power Competition?* Antiquitas: Podcasts on War* Thucydides* Sun Tzu* Clausewitz* CURRENT PROJECTS* Hoover Fellow / Research* Antiquitas Podcast* Recent Books* Ten Caesars* The War That Made The Roman Empire* Jews vs. Rome (coming August, 2025) This is a public episode. 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Scott Smitson, Professor at Denison University and a Geopolitical Strategist, dives into the complex interplay of energy geopolitics and economic warfare. He explores how current Middle East tensions impact global oil prices, comparing today's market dynamics with historical events like the 1973 Oil Embargo. The discussion highlights the U.S.’s evolving role as a leading oil supplier and examines China's energy vulnerabilities. Smitson also addresses the implications of a strong dollar and the future shift towards green technology, offering a captivating look at global energy strategies.

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast collaboration between Grant Williams and me that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.8/2/24: Episode 7 — Oriana Skylar MastroOriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, and Asia-Pacific security issues. She is also an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Having served 15 years in the US Air Force Reserves, Oriana’s military background and specific expertise on Indo-Pacific security issues have landed her various advisory roles at numerous Washington, DC thinktanks as well as at US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), the Department of Defense Command responsible for coordinating all of the US Armed Forces in the Indo-Pacific region.I met Oriana last May at the RAND Institute, where she was a panelist at a private US/China “Great Power Competition” Summit I chaired (summary link below). I believe her incisive and no-nonsense insights into China’s geopolitical strengths and weakness need to be heard, and the release of Oriana’s new book, Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, gave us the perfect opportunity to invite her to KAOS THEORY.Oriana leads us through China’s “Upstart Strategy,” which is comprised of a dynamic mix of Emulation, Exploitation, and Entrepreneurship. Although we covered wide-ranging topics of geopolitical significance, our conversation here just scratches the surface, and I encourage everyone to read her book, which has been touted as a “must-read” by the likes of General H.R. McMaster as well as Admiral Phil Davidson.Oriana can be found on these platforms:Twitter/X: @osmastroWebsite: https://www.orianaskylarmastro.com/Additional ResourcesHere is a detailed summary of the US/China Event I chaired last May, which featured Oriana as a panelist:If you liked what you heard today, please also check out the other episodes of KAOS THEORY in this Directory, which I will keep updated: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.urbankaoboy.com/subscribe

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast series that Grant Williams and I are collaborating on that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.5/20/24: Episode 6 — Brian McCarthyBrian McCarthy is the founder of MacroLens, an institutional newsletter focused on macroeconomics. Brian previously ran a single-strategy China-focused hedge fund at Emerging Sovereign Group from 2012-2019. He is an expert on China’s balance of payments and currency management.Because China looms so large on the world stage both macroeconomically and geopolitically, this conversation is both timely and important in its implications. We talk about everything from China’s burgeoning bad debts, the Scylla/Charybdis Dilemmas facing the PBOC, and the impact of recent new tariffs on China.Brian notably addresses both the Brad Setser “Shadow Reserves” Hypothesis as well as the Gavekal Revaluation Hypothesis and gives us some real-world lessons on how to navigate a currency regime that is heavily manipulated by central authorities. Finally, we touch upon the geopolitical ramifications of China’s top-down, centrally planned economy and currency policies and specifically how they impact domestic policies in the US.Brian can be found on these platforms:Twitter/X: @briangobosox Website: https://macrolens.com/Substack: macrolens.substack.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.urbankaoboy.com/subscribe

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a new podcast series that Grant Williams and I are collaborating on that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.2/4/24: Episode 5 — Robert SpaldingRobert Spalding is a retired Brigadier General of the United States Air Force. He has previously served as Senior Advisor on China to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Defense Attaché to China, and Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council under the Trump Administration​​. General Spalding is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute with a focus on U.S.-China relations and is also CEO of SEMPRE (Secure EMP-Resistant Edge).In 1999, two PLA generals wrote a treatise entitled Unrestricted Warfare which has essentially served as the CCP’s playbook for taking on the United States across multiple dimensions over the last several decades. In his 2021 book War Without Rules, General Spalding provides a bone-chilling dissection of the CCP’s methods and provides a comprehensive critique of some of the deficiencies in how the United States has dealt with these threats.We discuss all of these topics in the context of today’s climate of increasing Geopolitical Conflicts around the globe and focus in particular on the role of Information Warfare — the “I” in the DIME Framework that we have discussed with previous KAOS THEORY guests. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.urbankaoboy.com/subscribe