On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the liquidity cycle is telling us and finally, Andreas and Alfonso share their actionable trade ideas. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®️, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) 2022: A Year In Review (04:35) The Best Trades In 2022 On The Macro Trading Floor (10:22) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (17:59) The U.S & European Business Cycle (20:22) “Curve Ad” (21:32) The U.S & European Business Cycle (28:52) Equity Market's In 2023 (35:07) The Liquidity Cycle In 2023 (39:44) Higher, Or Lower? (43:15) The Best Trade For The New Year -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market (11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap (14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies (15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle? (17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change (19:56) Is This Time Different? (23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve (27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer (32:25) “Curve Ad” (33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative (37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea (44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting for a discussion on the changing macro landscape and the policy error the Fed is making. Taking us on a global macro tour of the world, Felix argues that the past few decades of globalization could now be in reverse, and most investors are not well positioned for that transition. We then go on to discuss the trends in inflation, wether we will enter a recession in 2023 and finally Felix's actionable trade idea. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: A Divided Bank of England Raises Rates to 3.5%: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-12-15/a-divided-bank-of-england-raises-rates-to-3-5 Zulauf Consulting: https://www.felixzulauf.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting (06:27) The Fed & The ECB Are Looking In The Rear View Mirror (08:06) All Eyes On The Bank of England (11:56) Feature Interview With Felix Zulauf (15:07) A Global Macro Outlook (30:30) Do You Expect A 2023 Recession? (38:07) “Curve Ad” (39:16) Felix's Actionable Trade Idea (43:26) What Could Go Wrong With Your Thesis? (51:03) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (55:29) Powell Will Stop Raising Rates When You Stop Trading Monkey JPEGs (58:34) The U.S Debt Ceiling Looms (1:01:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jurrien: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The Bond Market Is Pricing A 2023 Recession (06:11) Does Inflation Come Down With A Recession? History Says Yes (10:38) Feature Interview With Jurrien Timmer (18:03) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (24:22) “Curve Ad” (25:31) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (30:12) Are We Close To A Peak In Fed Funds? (35:25) Jurrien's Actionable Trade Idea (38:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (41:17) When Will The Fed End QT? (51:54) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We apologise for any minor audio issues you may experience on today's episode. -- On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Alex Campbell, the Founder of Rose AI, to the show for a discussion on the current situation in China. As inflation, de-globalization, and tight commodity markets continue to impact markets, Alex provides insights on the best ways to protect yourself in today's environment. Drawing on his extensive experience as the Head of Commodities at Bridgewater Associates, Alex delves into the structural underinvestment in the sector, how geopolitics have shaped the markets in 2022, and the likely path ahead in 2023. Tune in to hear Alex's actionable trade idea and learn more about how to navigate today's challenging economic landscape. -- Follow Alex: https://twitter.com/abcampbell Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Real Estate Watch - The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/real-estate-watch-the-equity-market -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Breaking Down Jerome Powell's Speech (04:20) Blackstone Limits Withdrawals In Major Property Fund (06:52) The Labor Market (11:23) Feature Interview With Alex Campbell (18:02) What Is Happening In China? (23:15) Inflation, De-Globilization & Commodities (28:31) “Curve Ad” (29:41) The Fed Is Tightening, But The PBOC Is Loosening... (32:22) Is Volatility Too Cheap? (34:28) Asset Allocation During An Inflationary Cycle (37:18) Alex's Actionable Trade Idea (42:24) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry joins the show to discuss the equity bear market in 2022. Tommy walks through what has happened in 2022, and what to expect in 2023 as investors face uncertainty if the recent rally is a bear market rally, or a bottom. Tommy goes on to discuss the energy trade and where the best risk/reward is in markets right now. Finally, Tommy shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Tommy: https://twitter.com/TommyThornton Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Recent Moves In FX (07:24) The Yield Curve Doesn't Stop Inverting (12:10) Feature Interview: Thomas Thornton (15:57) How Tommy Manoeuvred Markets in 2022 (17:46) The Recent Rally In Markets: Market Bottom, or Bear Market Rally? (22:12) “Curve Ad” (23:27) Tommy's Market Outlook Into 2023 (34:45) The Energy Trade (37:07) Tommy's Actionable Trade Idea (41:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitics at Cognitive Investments for a discussion on the global trend to a multipolar world. In 2022, geopolitics has been one of the leading factors in markets, so we invited an expert in geopolitics to help us navigate this environment. Expecting a shift away from globalization and a more multipolar world over the next decade, this trend has many implications for economies around the world. Jacob walks through the U.S/China relations, Europe's energy crisis and discusses which countries are best positioned in this environment, before finally sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jacob: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through http://tmtf.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (04:46) Bear Market Rally, Or Market Bottom? (07:38) What Is Happening In Crypto? (12:23) Feature Interview: Jacob Shapiro (15:25) U.S & China Relations After The G20 Meeting (18:23) China's Zero Covid Policy (23:05) De-Globalization (32:02) “Curve Ad” (33:17) Europe's Energy Crisis (38:31) Which Countries Are Well Positioned In This Environment (42:39) Jacob's Actionable Trade Idea (46:38) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (49:22) The Energy Crisis In Europe (51:53) A Trade In The Bond Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Brent Donnelly President of Spectra Markets for a discussion on the economic weakness around the world. With market participants focusing on the U.S as Powell continues to fight inflation, Brent reminds us that the real stress is not in the U.S, but elsewhere. Looking to Canada, Brent walks through the fragility he sees in the Canadian economy, and discusses vulnerability in the housing market as mortgages reprice with higher interest rates. Finally, Brent shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor. And if you are an institutional investor already, the Pro tier will help sharpen your macro game through dedicated professional products and tools. As a listener of The Macro Trading Floor, you can use the code ''TMTF'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/ -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:50) Top Stories of The Week (11:36) Feature Interview With Brent Donnelly (16:24) Drawing Comparisons Between 2022 & 2001 (21:19) Brent's Outlook On Inflation (29:16) The Housing Market (33:45) Brent's Actionable Trade Idea (42:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:38) Launching The Macro Compass Platform -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Raoul Pal CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision & Global Macro Investor to the show for a discussion on debt, demographics and deflationary pressures. Raoul discusses some of the structural deflationary forces that lie ahead for markets. How will these forces effect markets as the Fed, and central banks globally, progress through their fastest tightening cycle in recent history. How are rising rates & high inflation changing asset allocation in this period? Finally, Raoul shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Raoul: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:42)Top Stories of The Week (12:40) Feature Interview With Raoul Pal (25:08) The Low Interest Rate Environment (28:18) Powell Channelling His Inner Volcker (34:22) What Could Bring Markets Lower? (40:24) Raoul's Actionable Trade Idea (47:40) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance to discuss big tech earnings, preparing for a recession in Europe and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices in Europe plunged due to a mild start to winter throughout October, European next hour Dutch TTF actually briefly turned negative. Andreas & Jack walk through the dynamics sending prices lower and discuss if Europe is through the worst? Finally, Andreas shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Meta Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results: https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Meta-09.30.2022-Exhibit-99.1-FINAL.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (00:37) U.S Earnings Season (06:45) The 10yr/3m Yield Curve Inverts (11:06) Preparing For A Recession In Europe (15:48) Progressing Through the Tightening Cycle (19:34) European Natural Gas (28:42) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.