Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

During June, before Blind Squirrel Macro moves completely behind the paywall, we are going through the process of re-underwriting all of the live Acorn trades and revisiting the 'bull pen' of themes that we have closed out the trade but continue to monitor. This week we tackle the financials from financial exchanges, digital payments and banks (from Japanese behemoths to advisory boutiques) to our old friends at #TeamSaddlebags!The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod (Episode 88).. Audio-only edition embedded below and also available in the usual ‘Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod’ feeds on the podcast apps.It’s Monaco Grand Prix weekend and the 🐿️ sat down with his good friend and motorsport guru Matt Marsh on Friday afternoon to discuss the business of motorsport and Formula One. We also took a quick look at the latest betting odds for tomorrow’s big race. I hope you enjoy the conversation. I certainly learned a lot. Acorn follow-up note 👇.Introducing Matt MarshAfter a successful career on the racetrack (Porsche Carrera Cup Asia champion and first driver to represent Hong Kong in the Le Mans 24hr race), Matt was the F1 presenter for Fox Sports Asia (formerly Star Sports / ESPN).In 2005, Matt founded EDJ Motorsport Marketing, a specialist brand and marketing consultancy focused on motorsports. He is currently based in Singapore, but you will usually find him the F1 paddock on race days.Podcast Summary (Run time: 37 minutes)Minute 04 | The Evolution of Formula One’s Business Model* Discussion of Bernie Ecclestone’s commercial transformation of Formula One, his focus on high-value sponsors, and the origins of the sport’s current business structure.* Ecclestone’s approach to TV rights and team representation, and how these innovations laid the groundwork for Formula One’s modern commercial success.Minute 8 | Liberty Media’s Revolution and Fanbase Expansion* Liberty Media’s F1 acquisition and their focus on entertainment, accessibility, and expanding the fanbase.* The impact of digital content, social media, and the Netflix series “Drive to Survive” in attracting younger and more diverse audiences.* Growth in global fan numbers, with significant increases in female and 16–34-year-old fans.Minute 13 | Financial Growth, Team Valuations, and Commercial Sustainability* The economic transformation of Formula One under Liberty, including team valuations and the drive for commercial sustainability among all teams.* Discussion of anti-dilution fees for new teams (e.g., Cadillac’s entry) and the debate around expanding the grid line up.Minute 15 | Formula One’s and the US Market* How Liberty succeeded in making Formula One popular in the US; the differences in audience size and sponsor appeal between F1 and NASCAR; and the unique global and B2B opportunities F1 offers sponsors.Minute 22 | Sponsorship, Branding, and Marketing in Modern Motorsport* Breakdown of sponsorship tiers and the value proposition for brands in F1, from small ambassador deals to title partnerships.* The shift from traditional branding to storytelling, internal branding, and the importance of aligning sponsorships with business objectives.Minute 26 | ‘Sim’ Racing: Technology, Training, and Commercial Potential* ‘Sim’ (simulator) racing, its role as a driver training tool* The limitations of ‘Sim’ racing as a spectator or commercial product as compared with other esports.Minute 32 | Monaco Grand Prix Preview and F1 Punditry* Analysis of current odds for the Monaco Grand Prix and Constructors’ Championship, the impact of the race’s new pit stop regulations, and the unpredictability of racing at Monaco.* Discussion of this weekend’s intra-team driver matchups; potential race scenarios; and weather considerations.If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod (Episode 87) - Recorded May 15th, 2025. Audio-only edition embedded below and also available in the usual ‘Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod’ feeds on the podcast apps.“Amazon.com is the leading online retailer of books. Since opening for business as "Earth's Biggest Bookstore" in July 1995, the Amazon.com bookstore has quickly become one of the most widely known, used and cited commerce sites on the World Wide Web.”Introducing Jim MillerJim enjoyed an illustrious multi decade investment banking career starting in the mid 1980s at Merrill Lynch, cycling through Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, and Lehman Brothers before establishing an equities business for Dresdner after Bruce Wasserstein’s eponymous boutique had been ‘acqui-hired’ by the German bank to create Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.Like the 🐿️, Jim spent much of his banking career as an equity capital markets specialist. He has some extraordinary stories to share but I wanted to dig into one particular tale. The Amazon IPO.Podcast summary below the charts. 👇Podcast Summary:00:01:10 – Deutsche Bank’s US Expansion and Recruitment Drive* Discussion of Deutsche Bank’s strategic push into US capital markets in the mid-1990s, led by Edson Mitchell and Carter McClelland.* Jim describes joining Deutsche to build its US ECM business and meeting Frank Quattrone, a star tech banker newly recruited from Morgan Stanley.00:03:20 – The Amazon IPO: Background and Context* The conversation shifts to Amazon’s 1997 IPO, led by Deutsche Bank-a surprising choice at the time.* Jim provides context on the tech IPO boom of 1996, with 244 deals raising $13 billion, and Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech marking a turning point in market sentiment.* Why Amazon chose Deutsche Bank (Frank Quattrone’s charisma and hardcover pitch books).00:07:58 – Valuing Amazon: Challenges and Approach* The challenges of valuing Amazon, a small but high-profile business.* The DCF-based research valuation came from a young analyst called Bill Gurley - yes that one!00:11:02 – The IPO, Aftermarket Trading and Stabilization* Detailed account of the 3-hour pricing meeting, where the price was set at $18 per share after much debate.* The trading debut was attended by Jeff Bezos’ mum!* The retail ambush that stripped the register of all the institutional names.* The stock quickly declined post-IPO, underperforming the NASDAQ. Deutsche Bank intervened, buying a third of the float to stabilize the price and protect their new franchise.00:24:14 – Frank Quattrone and the “Friends of Frank” Scandal* Discussion of Frank Quattrone’s subsequent move to Credit Suisse and the controversial “friends of Frank” IPO allocation practices.* Jim explains how these practices differed from stricter protocols at other banks and the eventual legal scrutiny faced by Quattrone and his team.00:29:39 – Reflections on the Modern IPO Market* The conversation shifts to the current state of the US IPO market, characterized by limited deal activity despite buoyant equity markets.* Jim attributes this to excess liquidity in private markets, distorted valuations, and a lack of pricing discipline among venture and private equity firms1.00:36:23 – Closing Thoughts and Future Topics* Final reflections on the challenges facing dealmakers in 2025 and the persistent issues in the IPO and private equity markets.Please do sign up for Jim’s excellent occasional blog on Substack, Comments from Connecticut, here and active users of The Drey will know him as one of our regulars, Jim.If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Was back on CNBC on Tuesday morning. Blind Squirrel Macro is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.With Carney in the White House today, have we bought the bottom in Canadian energy?Yes, I still think the ‘deal boys’ have a tough 2025 ahead. Refresher below.Thanks, as ever, for your support. Squirrel out!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe