Astral Codex Ten Podcast

AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027. I've been helping them with their blog. Posts written or co-written by me include: Beyond The Last Horizon - what's behind that METR result showing that AI time horizons double every seven months? And is it really every seven months? Might it be faster? AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism - a look at some of the response to AI 2027, with links to some of the best objections and the team's responses. Why America Wins - why we predict that America will stay ahead of China on AI in the near future, and what could change this. I will probably be shifting most of my AI blogging there for a while to take advantage of access to the team's expertise. There's also a post on transparency by Daniel Kokotajlo, and we hope to eventually host writing by other team members as well. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-futures-blogging-and-ama

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] ttps://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-april-2025

(original post: Come On, Obviously The Purpose Of A System Is Not What It Does) … Thanks to everyone who commented on this controversial post. Many people argued that the phrase had some valuable insight, but disagreed on what it was. The most popular meaning was something like "if a system consistently fails at its stated purpose, but people don't change it, consider that the stated purpose is less important than some actual, hidden purpose, at which it is succeeding". I agree you should consider this, but I still object to the original phrase, for several reasons. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-posiwid

The conversation dives into the fascinating concept of using outcomes to assess the true purpose of systems. Examples like cancer hospitals and military strategies challenge the discrepancy between intentions and realities. The discussion critiques how governmental policies often fail to align with their stated goals, prompting listeners to rethink trust in institutions. By examining systemic actions rather than creators' intentions, the podcast reveals the complexities behind societal structures.

Discover the intriguing future of artificial intelligence by 2027, exploring geopolitical tensions and the risks of national AI races. Delve into the rapid rise of superintelligences and their potential to revolutionize the economy, reminiscent of historical industrial shifts. Engage with the moral dilemmas of AI, particularly in governance and decision-making, as it shapes social equity and diplomacy. This thought-provoking discussion melds technological foresight with critical ethical considerations, inviting listeners to contemplate a rapidly evolving world.

Explore the seismic shift expected as superhuman AI surpasses the Industrial Revolution. Delve into the rise of self-improving AI and the ethical quandaries it presents. Picture a dystopian future where a consensus AI leads to humanity's decline. Navigate the complexities of AI regulations amidst US-China tensions, uncovering the balance between innovation and safety. The podcast covers ambitious foresight and the geopolitical chess game that defines our technological destiny.

A fascinating exploration of AI’s evolution from 2021 to 2027 delves into the accuracy of a researcher's bold predictions made in 2021. The conversation reveals surprising developments in AI capabilities and raises questions about the global AI arms race, particularly between the US and China. Additionally, a poignant dialogue on the Ethiopian famine highlights the intricacies of model predictions, audience engagement, and the importance of supporting humanitarian efforts, showcasing the blend of technology and global challenges.

Explore the meticulous creation of ultramarine pigment and its significance in medieval art, especially in depictions of the Virgin Mary. Discover the challenges of sourcing lapis lazuli from far-off lands and its transformation into stunning colors. The discussion also navigates the intersection of innocence and artistry in our digital era, critiquing AI's impact on the meaning of art. Finally, ponder the paradox of technological abundance shaping our interaction with creativity and the search for authentic beauty in a rapidly evolving landscape.

Explore the chilling concept of Ur-abductions, delving into cultural narratives of evil humanoid kidnappers. Discover the intriguing tales of the Deros, malevolent Atlantean dwarves that blurred the lines between reality and fiction. Uncover the dark history of abduction myths and how they evolve from folklore to modern tales. Delve into the connection between sleep paralysis and abduction experiences. Finally, trace the cultural evolution of hell, revealing profound influences from ancient religions and personal experiences.

Delve into the intriguing moral dilemmas of charity and responsibility in emergency scenarios. The discussion unpacks thought experiments that challenge our views on ethical obligations towards the distant poor. It critically examines the obligations we face in life-and-death situations and emphasizes the need for cooperative wealth redistribution. The conversation also highlights the complexities of individual versus collective moral actions during crises, proposing that community resources often hold more power than personal intervention.