Astral Codex Ten Podcast

If you’ve read the finalists of this year’s book review contest, vote for your favorite here. Voting will stay open until Wednesday. Thanks to a helpful reader who offered to do the hard work, we’re going to try ranked choice voting. You’ll choose your first-, second-, and third-favorite book reviews. If your favorite gets eliminated, we’ll switch your vote to your second favorite, and so on. If for some reason I can’t figure out how to make this work on time, I’ll switch to first-past-the-post, ie only count your #1 vote. Feel free to vote for your own review, as long as you honestly choose your second and third favorites. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/vote-in-the-2023-book-review-contest  

Emil Kirkegaard proposes a semi-objective definition of “mental illness”. He’s partly responding to me, but I think he mangles my position; he seems to think I admit mental illnesses are “just preferences” but that which preferences are valid vs. diseased can be decided by “what benefits my friends”. I mostly don’t think mental illnesses are just preferences! I’ve been really clear on this! But Emil is right that I don’t deny that there can be a few cases where it’s hard to distinguish a mental illness from a preference - the clearest example is pedophilia vs. homosexuality. Both are “preferences” for sex with unusual categories of people. But I would - making a value judgment - call pedophilia a mental illness: it’s bad for patients, bad for their potential victims, and bad for society. Also making a value judgment, I would call homosexuality an unusual but valid preference: it’s not my thing, but seems basically okay for everyone involved. (I wouldn’t describe this as “benefiting my friends” - I’m against children getting raped whether they’re my friends or not. I think this dig was unworthy of Emil, and ask that he correct it.) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kirkegaard-on-evolutionary

Tech moguls plan new city in Solano County Guardian: Silicon Valley Elites Revealed As Buyers Of $800 Million In Land To Build Utopian City. The specific elites include the Collison brothers, Reid Hoffman, Nat Friedman, Marc Andreessen, and others, led by the mysterious Jan Sramek. The specific land is farmland in Solano County, about an hour’s drive northeast of San Francisco. The specific utopian city is going to look like this. The company involved (Flannery Associates aka California Forever) has been in stealth mode for several years, trying to buy land quietly without revealing how rich and desperate they are to anyone in a position to raise prices. Now they’ve released a website with utopian Norman-Rockwell-esque pictures, lots of talk about creating jobs and building better lives, and few specifics. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/model-city-monday-9423 

The American people deserve a choice. They deserve a candidate who will reject the failed policies of the past and embrace the failed policies of the future. It is my honor to announce I am throwing my hat into both the Democratic and Republican primaries (to double my chances), with the following platform: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform 

Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest To tell the story of the fall of a realm, it’s best to start with its rise. More than three thousand years ago, the Shang dynasty ruled the Chinese heartland. They raised a sprawling capital out of the yellow plains, and cast magnificent ritual vessels from bronze. One of the criteria of civilization is writing, and they had the first Chinese writing, incising questions on turtle shells and ox scapulae, applying a heated rod, and reading the response of the spirits in the pattern of cracks. “This year will Shang receive good harvest?” “Is the sick stomach due to ancestral harm?” “Offer three hundred Qiang prisoners to [the deceased] Father Ding?” The kings of Shang maintained a hegemony over their neighbors through military prowess, and sacrificed war captives from their campaigns totaling in the tens of thousands for the favor of their ancestors.  But the Shang faced growing threat from the Zhou, a once-subordinate people from west beyond the mountains. Inspired by a rare conjunction of the planets in 1059 BC, the Zhou declared that there was such a thing as the Mandate of Heaven, a divine right to rule—and while the Shang had once held it, their misrule and immorality had forced the Mandate to pass to the Zhou. Thirteen years later, the Zhou and their allies defeated the Shang in battle, seized their capital, drove their king to suicide, and supplanted them as overlords of the Central Plains. If the Shang were goth jocks, the Zhou were prep nerds... https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-zuozhuan 

“Literal Banana” on Carcinization writes Against Automaticity, which they describe as: An explanation of why tricks like priming, nudge, the placebo effect, social contagion, the “emotional inception” model of advertising, most “cognitive biases,” and any field with “behavioral” in its name are not real. My summary (as always, read the real thing to keep me honest): for a lot of the ‘90s and ‘00s, social scientists were engaged in ttthe project of proving “automaticity”, the claim that most human decisions are unconscious/unreasoned/automatic and therefore bad. Cognitive biases, social priming, advertising science, social contagion research, “nudges”, etc, were all part of this grand agenda. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/heres-why-automaticity-is-real-actually 

The podcast discusses theories of fetishes and their implications for AI, with testable predictions. It explores the origins and nature of fetishes, including personal experiences and testable predictions related to spanking fetishes. The speaker discusses gender ideology, puberty blockers, and individual choice, expressing disagreement with their use. It also touches on the challenges of including feet in character images for an app. Lastly, it explores the impact of sexual education on children and the potential effects of hiding gender cues.

Discussion on the failure of LK99 experiment in prediction markets and the reliance on media hype rather than expert opinion. Results of a prediction market tournament and profiles of top bettors. Exploring the concept of prediction markets and limitations in predicting the future. Discussion on the profitability of algorithmic prediction platform and predictions for the 2024 US presidential nominations. Various topics including Trump's weight bet, grants from EA Charity Long Term Future Fund, and AI forecasting.

A speaker critically reviews 'Why Nations Fail', highlighting the authors' academic papers. They discuss the role of political institutions in economic growth, instrumental variables in establishing causal relationships, academic success in 'Colonial Origins', rarity of sustained growth, and effectiveness of humanitarian interventions.

Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Volunteers have arranged meetups in 169 cities around the world, from Baghdad to Bangalore to Buenos Aires. You can find the list below, in the following order: Africa & Middle East Asia-Pacific Europe North America South America You can see a map of all the events on the LessWrong community page. You can also see a searchable sheet at this Airtable link. Within each region, it’s alphabetized first by country, then by city. For instance, the first entry in Europe is Vienna, Austria, and the first entry for Germany is Berlin. Each region and country has its own header. The USA is the exception where it is additionally sorted by state, with states having their own subheaders. Hopefully this is clear. You can also just have your web browser search for your city by pressing ctrl+f and typing it if you’re on Windows, or command+f and typing if you’re on Mac. If you’re on Linux, I assume you can figure this out. Scott will provisionally be attending the meetup in Berkeley. ACX meetups coordinator Skyler will provisionally be attending Boston, Cavendish, Burlington, Berlin, Bremen, Amsterdam, Cardiff, London, and Berkeley. Some of the biggest ones might be announced on the blog, regardless of whether or not Scott or Skyler attends.