Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a spreadsheet with what are basically takes - “Russia is totally going to win the war this year”, “There’s no way Bitcoin can possibly go down”. Then I do some basic math to it, and I get better takes. There are ways to look at a list of 3300 people’s takes and do math and get a take reliably better than all but a handful of them. Why is this interesting, when a handful of people still beat the math? Because we want something that can be applied prospectively and reliably. If John Smith from Townsville was the highest scoring participant, it matters a lot whether he’s a genius who can see the future, or if he just got lucky. Part of the goal of this contest was to figure that out. To figure out if the most reliable way to determine the future was to trust one identifiable guy, to trust some mathematical aggregation across guys, or something else. Here’s how it goes: in January 2023, I asked people to predict fifty questions about the upcoming year, like “Will Joe Biden be the leading candidate in the Democratic primary?” in the form of a probability (eg “90% chance”). About 3300 of you kindly took me up on that (“Blind Mode”). https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023 

All right, let’s do this again. Write a review of a book. There’s no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often between 2,000 and 10,000 words. There’s no official recommended style, but check the style of last year’s finalists and winners or my ACX book reviews (1, 2, 3) if you need inspiration. Please limit yourself to one entry per person or team. Then send me your review through this Google Form. The form will ask for your name, email, the title of the book, and a link to a Google Doc. The Google Doc should have your review exactly as you want me to post it if you’re a finalist. DON’T INCLUDE YOUR NAME OR ANY HINT ABOUT YOUR IDENTITY IN THE GOOGLE DOC ITSELF, ONLY IN THE FORM. I want to make this contest as blinded as possible, so I’m going to hide that column in the form immediately and try to judge your docs on their merit. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2024   

This podcast explores a wide array of fascinating topics including mysteries of holy sites, economic development in Ethiopia, polygenic selection for children's health, controversies surrounding old dogs, psychology trends, biotechnological advancements, and ethical implications of reproductive technologies.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/less-utilitarian-than-thou 

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-does-polygenic-selection-help 

Exploring the complexities and controversies of polyamory, the podcast delves into relationship satisfaction comparisons, challenges faced by the polyamorous community, legal implications, and misconceptions about polyamorous relationships.

AI forecasting and prediction markets are discussed, including the performance comparison of an AI bot with human forecasters. The podcast also explores the use of AI models to predict future scenarios, the impact of AI integration in special economic zones, and the potential for AI to revolutionize prediction markets. Additionally, AI's influence on movie creation, political forecasts, and a unique prediction market dating show event are highlighted.

The podcast explores the political gap between men and women in various countries, delving into theories like social interactions and sibling compositions. It presents survey data on sibling gender's impact on political attitudes.

Exploring the concept of Valentine's Day becoming the holiday for libertarians. Discussing the alignment of love with their principles and proposing common-sense regulations on love. Exploring the objections and potential consequences of regulating love. Reflecting on the complexities and challenges of love, comparing it to a hidden valley amidst corruption. Reflecting on heartbreak, incompatible relationships, and the satisfaction and happiness found in romantic relationships.

Sam Altman, Entrepreneur and AI enthusiast, discusses the scalability of AI and the implications of his desire for $7 trillion. The podcast explores the computing power, energy requirements, and training data needed for future AI models, along with the exponential progression of AI technology and the potential slow growth of raw intelligence. Safety concerns and the influence of Sam Altman's request on chip supply and AI development are also discussed.