Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Five years on, discussions about COVID continue to swirl, from lockdowns and mask confusion to the vaccine debates that divided communities. The staggering loss of 1.2 million lives often goes unmentioned, overshadowed by sensationalized controversies. Younger victims of the virus reignite discussions about mortality, while society grapples with the emotional fallout and the reluctance to face these truths. Instead of confronting collective grief, many prefer to engage in heated argumentation.

The discussion delves into Bryan Caplan's insights on parenting and its surprising ease. Humorous personal anecdotes illuminate the exhaustion of parenting twins. There's a critical look at how modern parents invest more time in childcare yet face mixed outcomes. The idea of free-range parenting is championed, reflecting on childhood freedom's decline. Additionally, the challenges of technology in parenting are examined, emphasizing a balance between screen time and traditional engagement.

Reddit’s /r/petfree community voices intense frustrations about pets invading public spaces. From dirty stores to off-leash animals in parks, their complaints are eye-opening. They argue that some pet owners are inconsiderate, overenthusiastic, or even negligent. The discussion delves into the psychological effects of noise sensitivity, comparing their grievances to conditions like misophonia. The podcast illustrates a unique perspective on social discontent in our increasingly pet-centric world.

User tests on an AI GeoGuessr tool reveal fascinating mixed results in its geographical guessing skills. A deep dive into a photo from Nepal near Mount Everest uncovers the complexities in accurately assessing locations. The comparison between AI and human players highlights striking differences, especially through the lens of expertise like Trevor Rainbolt's. Discussions explore the strengths and weaknesses of AI and its future implications in the gaming world.

Some of the more unhinged writing on superintelligence pictures AI doing things that seem like magic. Crossing air gaps to escape its data center. Building nanomachines from simple components. Plowing through physical bottlenecks to revolutionize the economy in months. More sober thinkers point out that these things might be physically impossible. You can’t do physically impossible things, even if you’re very smart. No, say the speculators, you don’t understand. Everything is physically impossible when you’re 800 IQ points too dumb to figure it out. A chimp might feel secure that humans couldn’t reach him if he climbed a tree; he could never predict arrows, ladders, chainsaws, or helicopters. What superintelligent strategies lie as far outside our solution set as “use a helicopter” is outside a chimp’s? https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/testing-ais-geoguessr-genius

Explore the captivating evolution of Curtis Yarvin's views on autocracy, from his innovative ideas on combining monarchy with cyberpunk to his later embrace of populism. Delve into the corrupting nature of power in political systems while contemplating a neo-cameralist model for better governance. Encounter the philosophy of passivism within reactionary politics, plus provocative discussions on accountability in corporate governance. Finally, reflect on the intricate emotions of political loyalty amidst personal struggles and the complex landscape of modern leadership.

President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to near-historic lows. With economic disruption from the tariffs likely to hit next month, his numbers will probably get even worse; this administration could reach unprecedented levels of unpopularity. If I were a far-right populist, I would be thinking hard about a strategy to prevent the blowback from crippling the movement. Such a strategy is easy to come by. Anger over DOGE and deportations has a natural floor. If Trump’s base starts abandoning him, it will be because of the tariffs. But tariffs aren’t a load-bearing part of the MAGA platform. Other right-populist leaders like Orban, Bukele, and Modi show no interest in them. They seem an idiosyncratic obsession of Trump’s, a cost that the rest of the movement pays to keep him around. So, (our hypothetical populist strategist might start thinking after Trump’s approval hits the ocean trenches and starts drilling) - whatever. MAGA minus Trump’s personal idiosyncrasies can remain a viable platform. You don’t even have to exert any effort to make it happen. Trump will retire in 2028 and pass the torch to Vance. And although Vance supports tariffs now, that’s only because he’s a spineless toady. After Trump leaves the picture, Vance will gain thirty IQ points, make an eloquent speech about how tariffs were the right tool for the mid-2020s but no longer, and the problem will solve itself. Right? Don’t let them get away with this. Although it’s true that tariffs owe as much to Trump’s idiosyncrasies as to the inexorable logic of right-wing populism, the ability of a President to hold the nation hostage to his own idiosyncrasies is itself a consequence of populist ideology. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-populist-right-must-own-tariffs

AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027. I’ve been helping them with their blog. Posts written or co-written by me include: Beyond The Last Horizon - what’s behind that METR result showing that AI time horizons double every seven months? And is it really every seven months? Might it be faster? AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism - a look at some of the response to AI 2027, with links to some of the best objections and the team’s responses. Why America Wins - why we predict that America will stay ahead of China on AI in the near future, and what could change this. I will probably be shifting most of my AI blogging there for a while to take advantage of access to the team’s expertise. There’s also a post on transparency by Daniel Kokotajlo, and we hope to eventually host writing by other team members as well. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-futures-blogging-and-ama

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] ttps://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-april-2025

(original post: Come On, Obviously The Purpose Of A System Is Not What It Does) … Thanks to everyone who commented on this controversial post. Many people argued that the phrase had some valuable insight, but disagreed on what it was. The most popular meaning was something like “if a system consistently fails at its stated purpose, but people don’t change it, consider that the stated purpose is less important than some actual, hidden purpose, at which it is succeeding”. I agree you should consider this, but I still object to the original phrase, for several reasons. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-posiwid