The Downballot

Matt Booker, a pollster at Change Research and former Daily Kos Elections alum, dives into the tumultuous world of Democratic politics. He shares why Congress faces a unique challenge with government funding and its implications for primaries. Matt reveals that most polling is just scratching the surface of deeper trends, especially in New Jersey's governor race. The conversation also reflects on the loss of FiveThirtyEight, emphasizing its significant impact on political analysis and polling methodologies, while exploring the struggles of engaging younger voters.

Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box.The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Joe Zepecki, a seasoned strategist and founder of Zipecki Communications, dives into the crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where liberals aim to uphold their majority. He discusses the implications of Elon Musk's financial influence on campaign dynamics and highlights Green Bay as a critical barometer for election outcomes. Additionally, the conversation explores gerrymandering and abortion rights as pivotal issues. Zepecki's insights reveal the intense strategies at play as Democrats rally to safeguard judicial integrity in a politically divided state.

It’s the third anniversary of The Downballot podcast this week, and it’s our pleasure to welcome Semafor’s Dave Weigel on the show!Dave's ubiquitous coverage of elections has been indispensable reading for years. In our conversation, he details how his attention to grassroots politics has helped him build unusual levels of trust with so many sources on both sides of the aisle. He also offers a thoughtful guide to handling the news onslaught that's accompanied the second Trump era and explains why races for party chair—whether of the DNC or RNC—seldom bring ideological shifts.Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into the wreckage in New York City, where a letter from Trump's Justice Department letting Mayor Eric Adams off the hook has blown up all semblance of the rule of law. But if there's any recompense, it's that Adams' political career looks just as doomed now as it did a week ago. They also catch listeners up on the latest regarding a New York special election and the resolution of a long power struggle in the Minnesota House. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

A special election will soon be underway to succeed Republican Elise Stefanik after she’s confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations, but New York Democrats are considering delaying it from April to June—or possibly even later. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down the implications of Empire State Democrats finding a backbone. We also discuss big decisions by potential candidates in Michigan and Ohio, which will have both Senate and governor races next year.We’re also talking to Campaign Legal Center Executive Director Adav Noti for an update on the state of campaign finance in 2024—and it’s not great! We discuss how Citizens United and the appointment of an anti-enforcement Democratic commissioner on the FEC led to the Wild West of campaign finance we know today. However, we also look at some positive laws and changes at the state level and discuss how reform could move forward at the federal level in the future. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It's only January, but it's been a hell of a week for downballot news, starting with a massive Democratic upset in an Iowa special election. We're covering the astonishing result and all its implications in depth on the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, including what it might mean for upcoming races like the pivotal April 1 showdown for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Michigan Senate race, which was just scrambled by Gary Peters' surprise retirement, and the contest for governor in Arizona, where a far-right congressman's bid could be music to Democratic ears. They wrap up with two new state Supreme Court rulings: one positive in Minnesota, and one very troubling in North Carolina for anyone who believes in democracy. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Our guest this week on The Downballot podcast is Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, who tells us all about the importance of the job—and about his plans for electing more folks like him as the new chair of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. These number-twos hold many additional roles, whether as tie-breakers in legislatures, state election administrators, and more. Davis highlights top races in 2025 and 2026, including Arizona, which will elect its first lieutenant governor ever next year.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a new effort by Virginia Democrats to pass amendments enshrining abortion, same-sex marriage, and voting rights into the state constitution, illustrating how states will once again be the central battlefront for protecting democracy in the second Trump era. And they explain why new Senate appointments in Ohio and Florida could yield messy GOP primaries—and a Democratic opportunity. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Minnesota House wound up evenly tied after the November elections, but Republicans say they're entitled to run the chamber and pick a speaker. We're unpacking this bizarre turn of events on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, an ongoing saga that's seen Democrats respond by playing hardball and walking out to deny the GOP a quorum. Will the courts step in, or will they leave lawmakers to resolve the deadlock themselves? It's all unfolding as we speak.We're also talking to data journalist Derek Willis, whose work collecting detailed election results across the country is near and dear to our nerdy hearts. Willis notes that this is a particularly American problem—most other countries centralize their election data—and explains the often-painful process for gathering results, which can even involve deciphering handwritten numbers. But the efforts yield critical insights into our democracy, so if you'd like to get involved, be sure to check out the all-volunteer Open Elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Downballot podcast is back from our break, and already we've got election results to discuss on this week's show! Democrats in Virginia started the year off right with solid wins in two special elections that allowed them to retain their narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature while Republicans actually underperformed in a third race.And of course, North Carolina is once again top of mind as Republicans move forward with a plan to overturn the results of last year's race for the state Supreme Court—even though two recounts confirmed that Democrats won. We're also digging into the wild situation in the Minnesota House, where Democrats are threatening a walkout if Republicans refuse to accept the power-sharing deal the parties began hammering out after the chamber wound up tied following the November elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe