The Downballot

While the House was just called for Republicans, the GOP's majority will be incredibly slender—and it's about to get worse. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into two uncalled races that could flip to Democrats, further narrowing the GOP's advantage. But worse still is Donald Trump, who's been raiding the House for his cabinet, prompting Mike Johnson to beg him to stop. So what did Trump do? Why, he nominated Matt Gaetz for attorney general, of course. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It may seem hard to believe after Tuesday night, but Democrats still have a shot at winning a majority in the House. With many races uncalled and many votes still to be counted, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the Democrats’ path to 218 seats on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Hang on tight, though, since it could be a while before final results are known. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

At long last, the election is almost here, and there are thousands of races to follow. That's why we're lucky to have the supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, join us on the last pre-election edition of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights the top Senate battles and critical House races that will likely determine control of both chambers, starting when the first polls close in Indiana all the way until voting wraps in Alaska. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Few people can cut through the noise like Josh Marshall, founder of the seminal Talking Points Memo and O-est of the O.G. political analysts. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Josh explains how he concluded that Donald Trump's unorthodox get-out-the-vote operation is probably a mess—and why it could harm Republicans further down the ticket. He also tells us about some of the House races on the bubble that he's keeping an eye on, which seem to point to a solid Democrat year despite the polls.That's a topic co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into at the top of the show, when they discuss the "triage" now underway in the battle for the House. Big-money groups are starting to reposition their resources for the final two weeks, and so far, almost all of the moves have favored Democrats. Special elections have also brought good news for Democrats, as Nir detailed in a new article this week, so which pieces of evidence should you believe? As the Davids explain, it might just be all of the above. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

New fundraising reports show Democrats absolutely obliterating Republicans up and down the ballot, while a leaked super PAC memo indicates some serious GOP anxiety about Senate race polling. That all looks like good news for Democrats, but polls still show an exceedingly close contest at the top of the ticket, so which pile of evidence is pointing the right way? It's the central question we're discussing on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—and the answer could very well be "both."Our guest this week is Robert Reynolds Gambhir of Vote Rev, an organization that harnesses behavioral science to boost civic engagement. Robert tells us about Vote Rev's methods for enhancing traditionally impersonal get-out-the-vote efforts by asking voters to reach out to their friends. They dub the tactic "vote tripling," and campaigns are currently deploying it in the runup to the November elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Here's a big election on Nov. 5 you won't want to sleep on: Puerto Rico, a territory home to 3.2 million U.S. citizens, is holding a plebiscite on the question of statehood. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain the vote—and the 126 years of colonial history leading up to it—is George Laws Garcia, executive director of the Puerto Rico Statehood Council. Laws Garcia details the huge disadvantages Puerto Ricans face due to the island's current status and says they point to a victory for statehood. And should it become a state, he intriguingly tells us why he thinks Puerto Rico would defy conventional wisdom and wind up a swing state.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the House battlefield, which remains very small but, inch by inch, is growing—most notably in South Texas, where Democrats are making a play for a heavily Latino, GOP-trending district that they left by the wayside last cycle. Then the Davids dissect a strange poll from a strange candidate in a swingy House race before checking back in on Indiana, where both Democrats and Republicans are suddenly treating the open governor's race like it's genuinely competitive. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Asian Americans are an often untapped constituency that could make or break close many elections up and down the ballot. This week on The Downballot podcast, we're speaking with Shekar Narasimhan, the founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, who explains how his organization motivates voters and helps elect progressive Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native Hawaiian candidates to office. Education and immigration are top issues throughout the diverse AAPI community, where a robocall in a native language—the Victory Fund can translate into more than a dozen—can go a long way.Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a most unexpected contest: the race for Indiana's open governorship, which shot onto the radar this week thanks to a disastrous GOP campaign ad and some shockingly close polling. The Davids also check in on the Senate races in Texas and Florida, another pair of red states where Democrats are making a late move to expand the battlefield in the hopes of retaining their slim majority. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Just how big will Mark Robinson's blast radius grow? We're surveying the damage on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, and it's looking pretty gnarly for the North Carolina GOP. Most Republicans have found increasingly creative ways of distancing themselves from their fatally flawed gubernatorial nominee, but the sheer number of tossup races on the ballot means that any downturn in enthusiasm could have profound effects in the Tar Heel State.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also nerd out with Kirk Bado, editor of the National Journal Hotline, about this year's elections. Bado gives us a sneak preview of his new power rankings for Congress, which rank the top seats in both chambers in order of their likelihood of flipping. He also discusses a major new investigation into the dearth of House polling and highlights a few on-the-bubble races he's keeping an eye on. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

There are few topics nearer and dearer to us than state legislative races, which is why we welcomed Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Williams tells us all about Democrats' top targets this year, including protecting skinny majorities in Michigan and Pennsylvania and flipping GOP-controlled chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire. She also emphasizes how the DLCC plays the long game, since it often takes more than one cycle to come out on top.Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard spotlight The Downballot's new special report on the size of the immigrant population in Springfield, Ohio. For all the attention the city has gotten, no major publication had done a deep dive to understand just how many Haitians now live there, so contributor David Jarman stepped into the breach. The hosts also discuss a pair of court rulings about misleading summaries of ballot measures written by Republicans—one rejecting an attempt to gaslight voters, and the other allowing it. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The long primary season that began—if you can believe it—more than six months ago has at last come to an end, finally setting the stage for November's general election. First, though, we have a few races to recap on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, including the Democrats' primary for New Hampshire's open governorship, their most enticing flip opportunity in the nation. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also excoriate Ron DeSantis for using Florida's state government to fight an abortion rights amendment, a maneuver direct from the authoritarian's playbook.Our guest on the show this week is Lauren Gepford, whose group, Contest Every Race, recruits Democratic candidates nationwide to run in races far down the ballot that often go uncontested. Gepford explains how her organization figures out which of the nation's half-million elected positions to target (it's a huge task!) and tells us about its remarkably effective recruitment tool: texting folks to ask them if they might want to run. Even in the reddest areas, it's all about giving voters a choice when they might otherwise have none. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe