The Downballot

The Downballot is thrilled to announce the publication of the newest edition of our most widely used—and beloved—set of data: our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. Naturally, we're talking all about it on this week's edition of our podcast, including why it's such a herculean undertaking and what the numbers tell us. Most important of all, the data points the way to the races that will form the central battleground in the clash for control of the House next year.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from Dick Durbin's retirement in Illinois; a favorable ruling for Democrat Allison Riggs in the never-ending litigation over last year's race for the North Carolina Supreme Court; and why Donald Trump's hilarious decision to issue a dual endorsement in Arizona is bad news for Republicans. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Philip Bump, for many years an important voice at the Washington Post, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to share our mutual love of nerding out on numbers. Philip explains how he translates abstract data for a broad audience, going into detail on some surprising findings regarding turnout and special elections. He also explores how the second Trump administration differs from the first and concludes that public opinion likely has not yet caught up to the reality of just how different things are.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also bring listeners up to speed on the latest developments in the never-ending litigation over North Carolina's Supreme Court race, which—for the first time in a long time—just brought some good news for Democrat Allison Riggs. And the Davids take a look at Iowa, where a GOP governor's surprise retirement might create a rare opening for Democrats. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Liberals won a massive victory in last week's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the public saw precious little polling data that projected a blowout. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is pollster Margie Omero of GBAO, whose internal polling nailed Judge Susan Crawford's 10-point margin. Democrats hedged their bets, though, by modeling two different electorates—one redder and one bluer. Omero tells us why the latter won out, including the role that Elon Musk played in motivating Crawford's supporters.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explain why everyone needs to be prepared for a Senate map that winds up a lot more competitive than it might look on paper. With that backdrop, the Davids dive into a trio of major developments on the Senate front over the last week, including a notable Democrat jumping in in North Carolina; a MAGA favorite challenging a Republican incumbent in Texas; and the GOP's best recruit declining a bid in North Carolina. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the huge Democratic overperformances in two ruby-red Florida House districts, which show that Republicans were right to fear losing Elise Stefanik's seat in a special election. But that's not all: Democrats racked up big wins in a wide range of other races (Omaha! Aurora! Winnebago!), all of which the Davids recap. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court.The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time.The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Matt Booker, a pollster at Change Research and former Daily Kos Elections alum, dives into the tumultuous world of Democratic politics. He shares why Congress faces a unique challenge with government funding and its implications for primaries. Matt reveals that most polling is just scratching the surface of deeper trends, especially in New Jersey's governor race. The conversation also reflects on the loss of FiveThirtyEight, emphasizing its significant impact on political analysis and polling methodologies, while exploring the struggles of engaging younger voters.

Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box.The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Joe Zepecki, a seasoned strategist and founder of Zipecki Communications, dives into the crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where liberals aim to uphold their majority. He discusses the implications of Elon Musk's financial influence on campaign dynamics and highlights Green Bay as a critical barometer for election outcomes. Additionally, the conversation explores gerrymandering and abortion rights as pivotal issues. Zepecki's insights reveal the intense strategies at play as Democrats rally to safeguard judicial integrity in a politically divided state.