The Downballot

This week on The Downballot, we nerd out with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight, whose path from hobbyist to full-time election analyst closely mirrors the Daily Kos Elections story. Rakich discusses how gerrymandering might have made for a more equal congressional playing field but not necessarily a fair one; what kind of redistricting commissions have actually worked best; and some of the key bellwether districts he'll be looking at to judge what sort of night Democrats can expect in November. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into a hard-to-explain decision by a major Democratic super PAC to take sides in an Oregon House primary; what the 2022 version of a well-established prediction model says about the midterms; New York's truly screwed-up system for electing and replacing lieutenant governors, and the results of the first round of France's presidential election. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Ali Lapp, the founder of the House Majority PAC—the largest super PAC devoted to helping Democrats win House races nationwide. Lapp discusses HMP's role in the broader Democratic ecosystem, how the organization decides which districts to target, and promising research showing the positive impacts of a new ad touting Democrats' record on the economy. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap elections this week in California and Wisconsin; explain why Republicans are finally turning on Madison Cawthorn (it's not really about cocaine and orgies); pick apart a huge blunder that led the first attack ad in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for Senate getting yanked off the air the very day it debuted; and provide updates on international elections in Hungary and France. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On The Downballot podcast this week, we open up our mailbag! Listeners sent—and we answer—questions on a huge range of topics, including Wisconsin's Senate race, legislative elections in Georgia, how Democrats should address inflation, whether handwriting postcards to voters is an effective tactic, and much more. Special bonus question: Which Republican senator up for re-election this year is most despised by progressives? Tune in to find out! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the resignation of a GOP congressman convicted of campaign finance fraud, a Republican effort to knock a Trump favorite off the ballot in Tennessee, and recent court rulings that struck down gerrymanders in Maryland and … Alaska? Yep, Alaska! Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Joining us on The Downballot this week is Jessica Post, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee—the official arm of the Democratic Party dedicated to winning state legislatures nationwide. Jessica talks with us about how the DLCC picks its targets and helps candidates; the impact of freshly un-gerrymandered maps in Michigan and Pennsylvania; and how Democrats are protecting vulnerable seats in a challenging midterm environment. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss yet another shameful redistricting ruling from the Supreme Court, Donald Trump pulling the plug on Mo Brooks' Senate campaign in Alabama, and a brand-new special election for the top prosecutor's post in America's fourth-largest county. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, a new digital magazine devoted to elections that impact voting rights and criminal justice. We discuss far-right efforts to take over local election boards—and the progressives who are using those offices to expand voting rights. We further tackle the huge changes we've seen in recent years in races for district attorney, as well an upcoming recall election of a high-profile progressive reformer in San Francisco. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also analyze how the war in Ukraine is playing out in U.S. elections, the status of redistricting in the five laggard states that have yet to adopt new congressional maps, and a lawsuit challenging whether Oklahoma can hold a special election for the Senate this year. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we talk with Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, an organization she formed in the wake of the 2016 elections to help young, diverse progressives run for office across the country at all levels of the ballot. Litman tells us about the resources they offer to first-time candidates, some of Run for Something's biggest success stories, and her favorite obscure post that you might not even know is an elected position in many states. We also spend time exploring a trio of different stories out of North Carolina—one concerning Madison Cawthorn, one about redistricting, and one, believe it or not, about Vladimir Putin—and bring you up to speed on the just-concluded presidential election in South Korea. To learn more about Run for Something, visit their website. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the latest episode of The Downballot, David Nir and David Beard recap the action from Texas' Tuesday primaries, including the runoff between conservative Democrat Henry Cuellar and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros; the demise of Louie Gohmert's political career; and the shocking developments in Texas' 3rd Congressional District, where a new scandal derailed an unexpected runoff. The co-hosts also embark on a deep dive into the world of Democratic open seats in the House, discussing the role of redistricting in prompting retirements and the many ways in which primaries this year have the chance to move the party in a more progressive direction and increase its diversity. Episode transcript. Donate to charities helping Ukrainian victims of Putin's illegal war. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the fifth episode of The Downballot, Nir and Beard preview all of the key Texas primary races with Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer. The roster includes progressive Jessica Cisneros' second attempt at booting conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cueller in the 28th District, plus the absolutely gonzo GOP primary targeting still-under-indictment Attorney General Ken Paxton.  Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the fourth episode of The Downballot, Beard and Nir take a deep dive into redistricting with Daily Kos Elections contributing editor David Jarman. We walk through the major changes that new congressional maps have wrought in some of the biggest states, including New York, Texas, and Michigan, with a stop to gawk at the infighting that's derailing Republicans in Florida and Missouri. Plus, how would you react if your former congressman sent you an email that began, "I don't know what I'm doing?” Episode transcript. Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the third episode of The Downballot, Nir and Beard talk about redistricting in Alabama and the GOP primary for governor in Georgia before exploring the world of online polling with Civiqs co-founder Drew Linzer. Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe