Eurodollar University

Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #repo #dollarshortage

This podcast explores the Federal Reserve's pivot towards rate cuts as insurance against economic uncertainties, and the disparities between GDP and GDI as measures of economic output. It also discusses the dilemma of prioritizing inflation fighting over addressing economic weakness, the link between rate cuts and unemployment uncertainty, and the importance of GDI as a recession predictor and indicator of weakness in the real economy.

The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarChristmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements is...eurodollar. You don't have to take my word for it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBIS WP 592 The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity https://www.bis.org/publ/work592.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here’s why it mattershttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/bank-of-japan-loosens-ycc-cites-greater-flexibility-and-jolts-markets.htmlBloomberg Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Nearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/boj-rate-hike-bets-ramp-up-as-ueda-and-himino-spook-tradersBloomberg BOJ Deputy Chief Hints That Negative Rate End May Be Closerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/boj-s-deputy-chief-hints-that-end-of-negative-rate-may-be-closerCNBC Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties; yen tumbleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/boj-bank-of-japan-sticks-to-ultra-easy-monetary-policy-in-light-of-high-uncertainties.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's attention. There is evidence for this, too. Maybe more than you'd think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisGreen Street CREhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIFederal Reserve Beige Book November 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfBloomberg Odd LotsWhy Multifamily Is the Next Stress Point in Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/why-multifamily-is-the-next-stress-point-in-commercial-real-estateTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

This podcast discusses the global decline in bond yields and attributes it to more than just a possible US recession. It explores the immediate threats from China, including the scale of the real estate problem and its impact on the economy. The podcast also analyzes the interconnectedness of the global economy and the role of the Euro Dollar system. It further discusses the impact of China's economy on global interest rates, highlighting persistent downside risks and weak retail sales.

If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell Speech December 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231201a.htmJay Powell Press Conference December 13, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231213.pdfFOMC SEP - the December dotshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Is the bond market wrong?  Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality?On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Traders Turbocharge ECB Bets by Predicting 2.5% Rate in 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/markets-turbocharge-bets-that-ecb-will-lead-world-on-rate-cutsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement