Eurodollar University

More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/salesforce-stock-fall-earnings-revenue-miss.htmlBloomberg  Salesforce Shares Plunge by Most Since 2008 After Weak Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/salesforce-gives-weak-sales-outlook-with-slowdown-fears-growingCNBC Kohl’s stock plummets 25% after massive earnings misshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/kohls-kss-earnings-q1-2024.htmlKohl's Kohl's Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Resultshttps://investors.kohls.com/news-releases/news-details/2024/Kohls-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspxBEA  Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profitshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.'Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit registerhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_4~0aa7d44e15.en.htmlReuters Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headachehttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/S&P Global Investors expect surge in bad commercial real estate loans at European bankshttps://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/investors-expect-surge-in-bad-commercial-real-estate-loans-at-european-banks-81618608FitchRatings Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Officehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisnerdwallet  2024 State of Consumer Credit Reporthttps://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-consumer-credit-reportCNBC 25% of consumers recently used a buy now, pay later loan, report finds. What to know as they become popularhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.htmlFRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisGeorge DeMartino Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersDeLong & Summers How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1988/06/1988b_bpea_delong_summers_mankiw_romer.pdfBrad DeLong Greater Depressionhttps://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/j--bradford-delong-argues-that-it-is-time-to-call-what-is-happening-in-europe-and-the-us-by-its-true-nameBank of England  Ben Bernanke to lead review into forecasting at Bank of Englandhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/july/ben-bernanke-to-lead-review-into-forecasting-at-bank-of-englandBank of England Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a reviewhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-reviewMervyn King Per Jacobsson Lecture: The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Timeshttps://meetings.imf.org/en/2019/Annual/Schedule/2019/10/19/imf-seminar-per-jacobssonhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth?Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreShould Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersFoxNews Democrat claiming 'inflation rates are down' interrupted by higher than expected inflation reporthttps://www.foxnews.com/media/democrat-claiming-inflation-rates-down-interrupted-higher-expected-inflation-reportThe Undecideds What Are Undecided Voters Really Thinking?https://markhalperin.substack.com/p/what-are-undecided-voters-reallyBloomberg Fed’s Bostic Says Policy Is Taking Longer to Slow Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-bostic-says-policy-is-taking-longer-to-slow-growthhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estateBloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunchBloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-recordFitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Officehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRemarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetingshttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacityhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBShttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTarget Corp First Quarter Earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earningsTarget Corp Press Release Lowering Priceshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-itemsCNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goodshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.htmlBLS New Tenant Rent Indexhttps://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s).Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Livinghttps://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdfCDC Drug Overdose Deathshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htmCDC Birth Statshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htmCDC Birth Rateshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdfChristopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisApple Second Quarter Earningshttps://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htmCNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protectionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.htmlCNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt saleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.htmlCNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you askhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.htmlBloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Knowhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-workBloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debtBloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Trackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debtFlexhttps://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Startedhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU