Eurodollar University

Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't  heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fallhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945oTimes of Indiahttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cmshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.

The ECB recently made headlines with its eighth rate cut, while the global economy appears shaky. Surprisingly, many are fixated on political figures like Trump and Elon, missing crucial economic shifts. The Fed may be closer to joining this trend of rate adjustments than most realize. Concerns are rising over labor market weaknesses, especially in Germany, contrasting sharply with the Fed's more cautious approach. It's a pivotal moment for central banks globally, with the risk landscape growing ever more complex.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP May 2025https://adpemploymentreport.com/Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-showBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-yearCNBC Trump says ‘Too Late’ Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs reporthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dive into the unsettling economic signals emerging globally. Discover why Swiss inflation has turned negative and how tariffs impact growth in Australia. The discussion highlights troubling indicators like the sharp drop in factory orders and construction spending in the U.S. It paints a picture of a complex economic landscape where multiple small issues contribute to a larger deflationary trend. As banks adopt a defensive stance, the stakes are high in the world of economic policy and forecasting.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Sweden’s Surprise Economic Contraction Boosts Rate Cut Oddshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/swedish-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-weighed-down-by-investmentBloomberg ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Exposure to Private Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/ecb-intensifies-scrutiny-of-banks-exposure-to-private-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it’s game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Eurodollar University's Make It Make CentsFOMC Minutes December 1963https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdfFOMC Transcript Feb 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfBIS 1964 34th Annual Reporthttps://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1964_en.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU