Eurodollar University

Germany's economy is facing an unprecedented contraction, marking two years of decline. There's a concerning trend of rising unemployment and job cuts, especially in manufacturing. The discussion highlights a global pattern of stalled growth, with similar challenges emerging in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. Central banks are struggling to implement effective recovery measures, further deepening the economic malaise. The podcast delves into the illusions of recovery versus the harsh reality of economic stagnation affecting many countries.

China is facing a severe liquidity crisis, with money markets in turmoil and borrowing costs skyrocketing. The People's Bank of China is battling the chaos but struggles to maintain stability amidst increasing financial turbulence. A sharp decline in social financing signals a looming credit crisis, echoing similar economic challenges in India. The dire situation raises questions about the future of China's banks and the broader implications for the global economy.

The December CPI report spurred intense market reactions, despite initially unremarkable inflation figures. It reveals a shift in concerns, particularly in motor fuel and shelter pricing. The dialogue dives into how rising interest rates are reshaping treasury bonds, alongside trader sentiments reflecting historical trends. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's evolving policies are dissected, offering fresh insights into their impact on economic stability.

Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war efforthttps://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-energy-sanctions-ukraine/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time lowhttps://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.htmlBloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growthBloomberg India’s Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swapshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swapsBusiness Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on Indiahttps://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.htmlBloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in Indiahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-nowBloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Importshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-importshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Economics expert Steve Van Metre discusses the recent surge in payroll numbers, smashing expectations for two consecutive months. He explores whether this indicates a rebounding economy or if it’s merely a political effect. The conversation dives into declining earnings and low confidence among businesses, particularly in manufacturing. Van Metre also analyzes trends among younger workers and discrepancies in labor data, raising questions about what these changes mean for future economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's response.

The yuan is teetering on the edge of crisis, revealing the deep economic struggles in China. Efforts by the People's Bank of China to stabilize the currency have fallen flat, exposing a deflationary spiral. The transformation of China’s banking system adds another layer of complexity. Recent governmental measures seem inadequate, leading to a grim outlook not only for China but also for the global market. As mainstream awareness grows, the true roots of this crisis are becoming impossible to ignore.

Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks are taking a defensive stance, focusing on safer government bonds instead of lending, raising concerns about financial stability. The euro's decline is linked to inflation and rising consumer prices, echoing past economic crises. Long-term interest rates are surging, especially in Germany, compounded by political and labor market challenges in France and Switzerland. As banks opt for safety, the broader implications for economic growth and global supply chains become increasingly critical.