ARC ENERGY IDEAS

The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference takes place every three years and has been described as the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  This week, we hear from Matthew Crocker, Senior Vice President, Product, Strategy and New Assets, for ExxonMobil’s Low Carbon Solutions business. Matt, along with others from ExxonMobil will be at the WPC in Calgary.  Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Matt: ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook projects oil and natural gas will still make up more than half the world’s energy supply in 2050; why is ExxonMobil’s view of oil and gas demand more than some other scenarios such as the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)? Considering the amount of oil and natural gas demand in ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook, do you think it is possible to keep long-term global warming to less than 2°C? What was ExxonMobil’s intention for acquiring Denbury, a developer of CCUS solutions and enhanced oil recovery? What other investments is ExxonMobil making in CCS? Is ExxonMobil investing in biofuels? How is policy risk factored in when ExxonMobil makes low-carbon investments? Content referenced in this podcast:  The World Petroleum Congress registration information: https://www.24wpc.com/  ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050    Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference takes place every three years and has been described as the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  This week, we hear from Lisa Baiton, President and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API). Both organizations will be at the WPC in Calgary.  Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked: With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has energy security become a greater focus in North America? Does the United States still consider Canadian oil and gas foreign? With the recent run-up in oil prices, are you concerned about how consumers will react to higher prices for petroleum fuels?  Is the oil and gas industry reducing GHG emissions? What is your response to people who want oil and gas consumption to end soon? Do you think greenfield oil or gas pipelines can be built between the United States and Canada?  What is the outlook for LNG exports from the US and Canada?  Content referenced in this podcast:The World Petroleum Congress registration information: https://www.24wpc.com/  The Canadian conventional oil and natural gas sector emissions fell 24 percent in the last decade (CAPP analysis).  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Before you know it, summer is gone and its back to school!  Peter and Jackie look back on the energy headlines of summer 2023.   They start the podcast by discussing the new nuclear capacity announced in Ontario, with three additional small modular reactors (SMRs) announced and the potential for a significant expansion at the Bruce Power nuclear plant.  The excitement over room-temperature superconductors and another net-energy gain nuclear fusion reaction got their attention.  Next, a review of why oil prices rallied in July and the outlook for the supply-demand fundamentals for the remainder of the year. Finally, Peter and Jackie cover some additional news on the pause for new renewable energy permits in Alberta, as well as some feedback and clarification on the draft Clean Electricity Regulations.Content referenced on this podcast:·       Canada’s Draft Clean Electricity Regulation (released August 10, 2023) ·       The Alberta Government’s Frequently Asked Questions on the Renewables Inquiry and the Related Pause (August 25, 2023)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple Podcasts Google Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify

The United Kingdom (UK) has had to balance its net-zero ambitions with energy security after suffering from a price shock in 2021 that increased the cost of energy and forced them to stop importing Russian natural gas. This week, Lord Martin Callanan, the UK’s Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Minister for Energy Efficiency and Green Finance) at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, joins the podcast. His responsibilities include CCUS, hydrogen, green finance, energy efficiency, and emissions trading. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Lord Callanan: How do you respond to those that oppose the licensing of new North Sea oil and gas developments? Has the UK changed its policies or subsidies to compete with the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)?  How can a carbon-market approach with price volatility compete against the certainty of the IRA-style, subsidy-based policy? How does the UK structure offshore wind, nuclear, CCUS, and hydrogen incentives to attract capital?   Content referenced on this podcast:  See the live power generation on the UK’s National Grid: https://grid.iamkate.com/ See the latest carbon clearing prices in the UK Emissions Auctions: https://www.ice.com/marketdata/reports/278  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

The podcast is back after a summer break! This week, Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) joins the podcast to discuss the recent developments in Canada’s electricity markets. On August 4th the Alberta government announced that Alberta is pausing new approvals for large-scale wind and solar projects for six months. Peter and Jackie asked Vittoria about the industry's reaction to this news and if a pause was required to address the concerns raised by the government, such as the impact on pristine landscapes, reclamation security requirements, and the implications for the reliability of the power grid.  A week later, the Canadian federal government released draft Clean Electricity Regulations. The policy aims to create a net zero electricity system in Canada by 2035.  Starting in 2025, the draft rules require all new power generation assets to have low emissions (limit of 30 tonnes of CO2/GWh) by 2035. Natural gas generation is permitted if the emissions are captured or if the facility is used for short periods or in emergencies.  Natural gas power plants built before 2025 can continue to operate with unabated emissions until they are 20 years old. Peter and Jackie discuss the draft policy, including the negative response from provinces with high-emitting power systems, including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Content referenced on this podcast: Canada’s Draft Clean Electricity Regulation (released August 10, 2023) Electricity Transformation Canada Conference is being held October 23-25 in Calgary  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify

This week our special guest is Daniel Yergin vice chairman of S&P Global and author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power”.   Dan’s most recent book “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations” now has a revised edition. “The New Map” has been described as prophetic, predicting that Ukraine would be the scene of confrontation and conflict between Russia and the West. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Dan: Why did you foresee the conflict between Russia and the West playing out in Ukraine?  As a result of the invasion, is the world moving towards being more bifurcated? Do you think Russia’s oil and gas production will decline? Do you see any scenario in which Russia withdraws from the Ukraine war, or is greater escalation more likely? How has the relationship between the United States and China changed? What is China’s motivation for wanting to take back Taiwan?  How will the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) change the energy map and the US relationship with China?  Do you think the recent US permitting reforms will speed up projects? How would you describe the oil markets currently, short term and long term? Do you agree with the narrative that the world is underinvesting in oil supply? Do you see a scenario in which US shale oil would grow aggressively again? Content referenced in this podcast:  The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power by Daniel Yergin  See the online book about Peter Tertzakian’s Art Exhibit on the history of the light bulb  Visit Peter Tertzakian’s Art Exhibit at Elevation Gallery in Canmore (June 10 to 30) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:Twitter: @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify

This week our guest is Eric Nuttall, Partner, and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners LP.  Eric manages the Ninepoint Energy Fund (NNRG) and the Ninepoint Energy Income Fund (NRGI), which are traded on the NEO Exchange. The Ninepoint Energy Funds are some of the largest actively managed energy funds in the world. Eric’s views on oil and gas commodities and equities are sought after by the media and investors.   Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Eric:  Are you still an oil bull? Do you think oil markets could rally in the second half of 2023? What is your view on longer-term oil market fundamentals? At current oil prices, how are oil and gas equities performing?  Are institutional investors still avoiding oil and gas equities?  With oil and gas equities at relatively low valuations, should we expect foreign takeovers? Why are Canadian oil and gas companies valued less than their US peers?  Does Canadian federal policy, like the cap on oil and gas emissions, impact the valuations of Canadian producers? Content referenced in this podcast: Eric Nuttall’s recent webinar “What does a possible recession mean for the oil trade?” (April 12, 2023) Trans Mountain Pipeline Interim Tolls (June 2023) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/    Check us out on social media:Twitter: @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify

Energy markets are undergoing major changes.  Demand for electricity is increasing and at the same time supply from intermittent renewables is gaining market share. Artificial intelligence (AI) is another source of disruption for electricity markets.  To help us understand the changing market dynamics from an electricity trader perspective, our guest Cory Paddock, President and Co-Founder of GBE Energy joins the podcast. Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter ask Cory: How is electricity traded? As renewables gain a larger percentage of total supply, how will electricity markets be impacted? Are market reforms, such as capacity payments, needed to ensure power reliability as the share of renewables grows? What is a “duck curve”? How could AI change electricity markets? Is AI already being used? Could AI replace human electricity traders?  Content referenced in this episode: Small Vermont utility quietly builds a fleet of 4,000 Tesla Powerwalls (Electrek, Aug 22, 2022)   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:Twitter: @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify

The United Conservative Party (UCP) and its leader, Danielle Smith won a majority in the Alberta election on May 29, 2023.  Jackie and Peter start the podcast by reviewing the election results and the outlook for energy policy. Next, the conversation moves to Texas.  The Lone Star State has witnessed big growth in wind and solar energy, but now Republican lawmakers in Texas are trying to impede renewables growth.  Peter and Jackie talk about the shift in sentiment, and if it could spread beyond Texas. Finally, Jackie and Peter review some recent listener feedback, including Tesla, small modular reactors (SMR), and residential solar economics. Content referenced in this episode: ARC is hiring a Senior Energy Research Analyst, check out the posting Peter’s art exhibit is running June 10 to 30, 2023 at Elevation Gallery. The opening reception is on June 10. Learn more here Chris Varcoe from the Calgary Herald: “Q&A: As Alberta Energy Sector Transforms, Danielle Smith Weighs in on Industry’s Future” (May 25, 2023) CTV Article with Danielle Smith Comments on Wind and Solar: “We Are a Natural Gas Province: Smith Says Alberta Needs Power Plants, Not Wind and Solar” (March 22, 2023) Wall Street Journal: “Texas, a Clean-Energy Pioneer, Turns Against Renewables” (May 26, 2023)  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media:Twitter: @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify

This week on the podcast our special guest is John Dillon, former Senior Vice President, Policy and Corporate Counsel at Business Council of Canada.  First, John joins Jackie and Peter in a discussion about the Alberta Election that is being held on May 29, 2023.  What can we learn from the past record of the two leading parties, the United Conservative Party (UCP) and the New Democratic Party (NDP)? What do we know about their plans for the future of Alberta’s energy industry?  Next, we ask John to reflect on his 32 years at the forefront of climate change policy in Canada.  How have corporate attitudes towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changed over that time? What policy changes are needed for Canada to make big reductions in GHG emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050?  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:Twitter: @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteInstagram: @arcenergyresearchinstituteYouTube: @arcenergyresearchinstitute9600Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle podcastsAmazon musicSpotify