ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Some Canadian Federal politicians are claiming that oil is dead, never to return from the COVID-19 demand collapse. Instead, oil is alive and kicking. It is reminiscent of the famous Monty Python plague scene when someone tries to drop off a live body.  With half of the world’s population under lockdown, oil consumption fell just 30 percent. Now, with restrictions lifting, demand is bouncing back.On this week’s episode, we also discuss the divestment of four oil sands producers by Norway's sovereign wealth fund. Finally, we talk about how North American oil production is declining from COVID-19 and the serious implications for continental energy security.See the Energyphile abandoned gasoline pump: https://energyphile.org/vignettes/?vid=V0144See Peter’s commentary on the energy security implications of less North American oil production “The Biggest Energy Transition.”See the upstream oil and gas holdings of Norway's sovereign wealth fund at the end of 2019: https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/holdings/holdings-as-at-31.12.2019/Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

On this week’s podcast we interview Marty Procter, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Seven Generations Energy (7G). He reflects on the evolution of the firms ESG culture and communication, from the early days to the new supply agreement 7G was awarded because they were certified as a responsible energy supplier. 7G has been recognized for their ESG leadership, receiving a high rating from the well-known CDP organization. Additionally, Equitable Origin (advised by the Pembina Institute) certified 7G’s gas as responsible. Because of this certification, 7G was able to secure a natural gas supply agreement with Quebec’s largest natural gas distributor, Energir (formerly Gaz-Metro).This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2020.Check out Energyphile.org to learn more about “When Stokes Stoke” a postcard that exalted the polluted air from an Industrial town In England in 1947.View Seven Generations’ new 2020 ESG Report.To view corporate reporting to the CDP, including Seven Generations’ report, visit: https://www.cdp.net/en/searchPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

What is happening in the oilfields of the world as a result of the COVID pandemic? To what extent is the oilfield service industry being decimated from this downturn?  Post-pandemic, how will the industry change? These are just some of the questions we asked Kevin Neveu, President and Chief Executive Officer at Precision Drilling, a leading provider of services to the oil and gas industry.To learn more about Precision Drilling, see the website: https://www.precisiondrilling.com/Home/default.aspxPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

First, we review Michael Moore’s new movie “Planet of the Humans.” The film casts doubt on the green credentials of renewable energy by exposing upstream environmental impacts.  What did the documentary get right? What parts of the narrative were incomplete? The movie highlights unsustainable trends including population growth and humankind’s thirst for energy, but are there solutions? We also review recent events, including; the historic minus $38/B oil price ; the reaction to the Canadian government’s fiscal support for the oil and gas industry; and finally, why producers are asking the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) to pause the Enbridge Mainline Contracting Hearing for at least six months. See ARC SnapChart “Paris Target is Still out of Reach.”View movie “Planet of the Humans.” Project Drawdown’s table of solutions for impacting climate change.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Have you ever seen anything so severe in your 30 plus year energy career? How far could US oil production fall? What could the post-COVID oil demand recovery look like? The oil and gas sector was already on wobbly ground with investors prior to Coronavirus, will they come back now? These are just some of the questions we asked Bobby Tudor, the Co-Head of the advisory business of Perella Weinberg Partners and the Chairman and founder of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH). TPH provides strategic and financial advice to investors, management teams, boards of directors, government bodies, and other professionals and participants in the global energy industry.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

There are many ways society changes and adapts after major crises, such as wars, geopolitical events, economic recessions, environmental disasters and, of course, pandemics. What is the future of energy systems after COVID-19? Will the climate agenda be hindered, or will it roar back with even more vigour?We also cover the historic OPEC Plus production cut agreement made over the Easter long weekend. The group agreed to cut production by 9.7 MMB/d over the next several months with ongoing curtailments for the next two years. Will the cartel comply with these cuts? Is the curtailment large enough considering the collapse of global oil demand? Will other non-OPEC producers contribute?To learn from the past, understand the present, and plan for the energy future, sign-up for email updates from Peter Tertzakian’s Energyphile. Visit https://energyphile.org/ and scroll to the bottom of the page to find the “stay in the know” form.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

The pain of rock bottom oil prices has become so great that Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including potentially the United States and Canada, are considering a coordinated supply cut.  Could an agreement be struck?  Longer term, should oil producers continue to rely on the 60 year old cartel to prop up price? If a OPEC-Plus cut agreement is not made soon, will the United States slap tariffs on foreign oil imports to even the score? We also talk about the next chapter in the Keystone XL pipeline with news of the Alberta Government's financial commitment to the project. See ARC Commentaries related to this podcast, including “Colluding on Oil Production is a Game that Can’t Be Played Anymore” and “If the US Slapped Tariffs on Oil Imports Consumers and Refiners Would Feel the Sting.”Learn more about a tanker that transported Alberta oil to Canada’s East coast during the 1970s Arab Oil Embargo, check out the full story and audio file for “Long Way Around” on the Energyphile website.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Just like other businesses across the country, Canadian oil and gas producers are suffering from a loss of demand for their products due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Responding to the unprecedented business disruption, the Canadian federal government has now announced a 75 percent wage subsidy up to a maximum level. This is welcome news for companies across the country, including in the Canadian oilpatch.In addition to talking about the new government program, we also provide an update on the latest information on COVID-19 infection rates, North American refining demand, and the upstream supply response. See ARC Commentary “We Need to Think Outside the Barrel.”Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

In big parts of Canada and the United States, people are being asked to stay home to avoid spreading Coronavirus. This week we review the latest information on COVID-19 infection rates and the implications for North American oil demand. With the United States being the only export market for Canadian oil, the rapid collapse of demand in key consuming regions ripples all the way up the pipelines to Alberta’s oil fields and shut-ins of Canadian production are possible. While shut-ins are occurring as a result of low prices, they may not happen fast enough or at the magnitude needed to avoid exceeding storage levels.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

The effects of COVID-19 are reaching all aspects of our day-to-day lives. Stock markets are being hit hard, businesses are closing, and people are staying at home. On this episode we give an update on the rapidly changing situation considering the escalating impacts on the United States and Europe, and implications for oil demand. Amidst all this demand destruction, Saudi and Russia seem intent on increasing their oil production. Reacting to the collapse in oil price North American publicly traded oil and gas companies are putting the brakes on spending, with serious implications for oilfield service firms.We also revisit the world’s worst pandemic that occurred during the mid 1300s, considering the energy lessons from way back then. See ARC Commentary “Energy Lessons from the Great Plague.”Click here to see the latest ARC Charts, including our current estimate for Canadian oil and gas industry revenue, cash flow and spending.Click here to see an interactive map of COVID-19 situation globally and by country using data from the World Health Organization (WHO).Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/