The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Focusing on Emerging Markets I'm going to spend most of today's podcast talking about what is going on in the emerging markets, in the currency market and in the stock markets; what the speculators are doing, why they are doing it and why I think they are wrong and why I think it creates an excellent opportunity for investors to fade this trade and prepare for the ultimate reversal of these moves. Freedom Fest in Las Vegas But before I get into that, I want to talk about a few other topics of interest that happened after my last podcast.  I also want to talk about Freedom Fest in July.  I am going to Freedom Fest again, as I do every year in July. Not the greatest time of the year in Las Vegas - not that there's really a bad time to be in Las Vegas, you're going to have fun in Las Vegas whenever you go - but it is quite hot in July.  Of course I spend almost all my time indoors, so the heat really does not affect me.  And when I do go out, it is at night, and it is not so hot. The event is July 12-14 and if you have not already registered you can do it now.  It will be at the Paris Hotel & Casino; I will be there with my entire family - my wife and 3 kids.  We'll be at our booth, you can come by and have a chance to meet my wife and kids and say hello. Presentation on Tax Incentives of Working and Moving to Puerto Rico I am going to be participating in several events; I am going to be doing a talk on Puerto Rico and the tax incentives of working from and moving to Puerto Rico. Most of you should know by now, I am Puerto Rican. Puerto Rico is my main residence; I summer in Connecticut, but I am a resident of Puerto Rico. Euro Pacific Asset Management and Euro Pacific Bank are both  based in Puerto Rico. Bitcoin Debate Moderated by Naomi Brockwell Also I am going to be doing a Bitcoin debate against Jeffrey Tucker and Gary Smith - is it real, or is it Tulipmania? All of you realize what side I am on.  The debate will be moderated by Naomi Brockwell, who is known as "The Bitcoin Girl" in fact she appeared on my old radio show, the Peter Schiff Show, and I sure wish I'd listened to her and bought a bunch of bitcoin - obviously I would have a lot more money today.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Current Events Not much has been going on in the economy or the financial markets the last couple of days.  Its been  pretty quiet, so I'm going to take an opportunity to record a podcast more on current events and politics, so if you're not interested in those topics, then maybe just wait for my next podcast, although, when I did the Peter Schiff Radio Show 5 days a week, there were people who complained when I did not talk about the markets, or even the economy.  But I always enjoyed talking more about politics and current events, and I think the feedback I got was more engaging, so the show was more interesting. Supreme Court Wedding Cake Case So, I am going to talk about a couple of topics today; one has to do about that ruling that came out of the Supreme Court yesterday on the baker in Colorado who had refused to bake a cake for a gay wedding.  I know I have talked about this topic in the past; it is not the first time it has come up, but it has come up again in the wake of this ruling so I want to revisit that topic. No More Swimsuit Competition for Miss America Before I get to that topic, I would like to address a lighter topic, but nonetheless just as interesting.  The Miss America Pageant is no longer going to consider beauty as the criteria for the pageant.  In other words, it is a beauty pageant, but beauty doesn't count.  It's not outer beauty, it's just going to be, I guess inner beauty. They are going to get rid of the swimsuit competition, they are going to get rid of the evening gown competition and they will select a winner based on other characteristics.  I'm really not sure what.  I know they've got the talent competition; no one really paid too much attention to talent. Some of the women actually had some talent. Usually the most humorous part of the Miss America Pageant was the Q&A where there were often political questions asked and the contestants would try to give the most politically correct answer they could come up with.  Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jobs Friday Today is the first day of June and it's also jobs Friday. But before we get to the always highly-anticipated nonfarm payroll number, I want to talk about some of the economic data that came out yesterday, on Thursday. Personal Income and Spending I think the most significant release was the Personal Income and Spending number for the month of April. The spending numbers were so strong that it prompted the Atlanta Fed to adjust its estimate for Q2 GDP all the way up to 4.6% and I think they notched it up another tenth today to 4.7%, so this is the highest estimate they've had since they had that 5.4% estimate for Q1.  Of course we now know that we got 2.2%, so they were much too optimistic on Q1 and my gut is they're equally overly optimistic on Q2. Spending Went Up as Income Went Down Let's talk about this Personal Income and Spending data.  The surprise was not on the income, but on the spending. In fact, the revisions, when they went back to March. the original report was for a .3% gain in income and a .4% gain in spending. They ended up revising the income number down, so income rose only by .2%, but they revised spending up. Spending went up by .5%. What does that mean? That means savings went down quite a bit, because, where did the money come from to finance the extra spending?  It didn't come from income, so it came from savings, or it came from debt. Either people depleted their existing savings, or they went deeper into debt by putting their purchases on the credit card. Spending Money Twice as Fast as They Are Earning It But then, for the month of April, we got a .3% increase in income, which was anticipated, but spending, instead of rising by .4%, rose by .6%. So consumers are spending money twice as fast as they are earning it for the month of April: .6 up on spending, .3 up on earnings . So, again, what does this tell you? People are tapping into an already shallow savings pool or they are running up m0re credit card debt to buy stuff.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Economy Slowing Down We got quite a bit of economic data that was released today, pretty much all of it confirming what everybody seems to be denying, and that is that the U.S. economy is, in fact, slowing down, at least the way we like to measure it.  We will get more data later in the week, of course we get the big number, the nonfarm payroll number, on Friday. We always get that number the first Friday of the month; this Friday is June 1, so we are going to get the May jobs number. Last Month's ADP Jobs Number Revised Down We got the ADP number that came out this morning.  It was weaker than expected.  In fact, there was a significant downward revision to the prior month, which was originally reported at 204,000 jobs.  That was revised down to 163,000 jobs, so about a 20% reduction.  This month, the consensus was 187,000 and we got 178,000; of course, that number will also be subject to revision next month.  But, to me, that shows that we can potentially get a weaker number on Friday as well. Decline in Refinances at an 18-Year Low Earlier this morning, we got some data on mortgage re-fi's, which we get every week.  We get the numbers on new mortgages and mortgage re-fi's.  Everything is down.  This makes sense, because mortgage rates are going up. In particular, the decline in refinances is to an 18-year low in mortgage re-fi's. One of the reasons that the inability to refinance your mortgage is going to become a problem is that re-fi's have been providing a lifeline to consumers to enable them to continue to spend. Refinances Available as Property Values Rise When you refinance your mortgage, you're generally doing it to reduce your monthly payment because you are able to qualify for a lower monthly payment.  Some people who perhaps could not qualify a couple of years ago because they did not have enough home equity, but as real estate prices have risen that has enabled people who have been unable to refinance in the past to re-fi now.  Especially for those who are doing a re-fi and are also doing a cash out.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Biggest Move in Crude Oil Not much action today in the stock markets on this Friday before a 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.  The action was really in the oil markets, the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets. The biggest move happening in crude oil.  Crude was down just over $3/barrel today; one of the biggest declines I've seen in some time.  We're back down to $67.50. Earlier in the week, we almost hit $73/barrel for crude, and here we are now at $67.50 - a pretty big drop today. We were down yesterday, also. Speculation in the Market The rumors today were that Russia and Saudi Arabia may be upping their production and it was that news that sent the market falling. But remember, markets don't move in a straight line.  You get a lot of speculators who get into the market and generally they're not there for the long run; they're there to catch a trend, and they're there to ride it as long as they can.  They tend to put stop orders in beneath the market.  In the case of oil, if you're long, you'll have a sell stop and many of those stops likely got triggered today. Technical Noise You probably had some people trying to minimize their exposure.  Either they limited their loss to the extent that they got in recently and they got stopped out with a loss or maybe they've been long for a while and they've been moving their stops higher to protect their profits and now they got stopped out of the trade.  But I think this is more technical noise.  I don't think this uptrend in the price of oil has changed based on this pullback from $73 now to $67.50.  Maybe we've got a little more downside, but if you look at the chart, you can barely see the decline.  The more recent uptrend that goes back to July - you look at this uptrend and it is holding perfectly.  We're not even down to the line yet.  We still have a little bit to fall before we hit that line.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Markets Rallied on Fed Minutes Interpreted as Dovish Earlier today we got the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes and before the minutes came out (they come out at 2pm Eastern Time). Prior to the release, all the stock markets were down; the Dow was down maybe about 150 points or so, and when the minutes came out, we got a rally, and the Dow closed up about 50 points.  So, a 200-point rally on the minutes, and the reason the minutes acted as a catalyst for the rally is that they were interpreted to be a bit more dovish than expected. The Fed's Symmetrical Inflation Target To me, the minutes were as expected; I had already been talking about the Fed's view that inflation can go above 2%. That they were willing to allow for some kind of "symmetrical" inflation.  The symmetry in this case meaning, we were below 2% for a long time and so now we can be above 2%. I guess for some reason the markets focused in on that. Specifically, the minutes read that "A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the Committee's symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations at a level consistent with that objective." What does "Modest" Mean? Now, I don't know why allowing inflation to be higher than 2% is somehow helpful toward achieving their 2% objective. To me, It would be more helpful if they just kept it at 2%, if indeed that was their real objective.  But, even if you look at the language that they use, they don't really define what symmetrical could mean.  They talk about inflation being "modestly" above 2%: What is "modestly"? Is is 2.1%? What about 2.5%? Is .5% "modest"? They don't really define what "modest" is.  I have a feeling, again, that there's never going to be a definition, that it is going to be an ever-moving goal post.  Even 3% could be "modest".  "Hey, it's only 1%, right that's "modest", right? Fed Is Impotent When It Comes to Inflation But on a percentage basis, you wouldn't consider 3% modest.  You're above 2% by 50%.  50% is not a modest percentage, but they could say 1% is a modest percentage. Who knows?  I think the Fed is going to be looking for every excuse not to raise interest rates aggressively, no matter how high inflation gets.  Of course, they're not going to be that transparent. The last thing they would want to do is to let the markets know that they are that impotent when it comes to inflation.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Solid Gains Today in the Major Stock Market Averages We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points.  I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is at a record high again today.  I think it's the Russell 2000 that ultimately could make the biggest percentage drop once stock market traders start to figure out what's actually going to happen. A Lot of Saber Rattling and Not a Lot of Fencing But in the meantime, today, they were celebrating the cease fire in the trade war.  Although, I don't think I should call it a cease fire because nobody actually fired a shot.  It has been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle, I mean there was basically a lot of saber rattling and not a lot of fencing.  But I think what happened today is that we callee a truce.  Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there is not going to be a war. The Markets Have Not Adequately Priced in the Cost of a Trade War And I think the markets were relieved, and so we got a relief rally based on that good news.  Although I don't think the markets sufficiently priced in the cost of a hot trade war.  I know Donald Trump said, "Oh, trade wars are easy to win." Believe me, if they were easy to win, we would have waged one.  They're not easy to win.  I don't think the markets really discounted how bad it would have been had the cold war turned hot. Peace Dividend Nonetheless, the fact that it wasn't going to happen - I think most people would agree that a trade war would be bad, and if now there is going to be trade peace, well there is a peace dividend and so we got that today.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Las Vegas to Vancouver to Las Vegas I'm recording today's podcast from my hotel room in Vancouver, Canada.  I'm up here for a couple of days at the 2018 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and actually I left Las Vegas to come here; I am at the Las Vegas Money Show, I was there yesterday and I will be back again tomorrow for another talk, and on Thursday I am flying to Puerto Rico for another conference before heading back to Weston, Connecticut for the summer. Debating Bonds with Gary Shilling I was on a panel yesterday in Las Vegas at the Money Show and it was moderated by Mark Skousen, and one of the guys on the panel with me was Gary Shilling. And I've been arguing with Gary Shilling for a long time; there are plenty of YouTube videos of Shilling and myself over the years, arguing. He is basically a perma-bull when it comes to U.S. Treasuries. He is always bearish on the stock market and he's always bullish on the bond market.  For a while, he was right to be bullish on the bond market, because we had a huge bull market in bonds. But the bull market appears to be over, yet Gary Shilling is as bullish as I have ever seen him on the U.S. bond market. He is also bullish on the dollar; I guess if you are always bullish on the bond market you are also bullish in the dollar because bonds are dollar I.O.U.'s. Shilling: China Would Never Sell U.S. Bonds Now I think this is one of the times when Gary Shilling is dead wrong.  One if the points that he made that I challenged him on was when he started talking about China.  He said the Chinese would never sell their U.S. Treasuries because if they sold them, the prices would collapse, and they would be destroying their own portfolio; therefore they are not going to sell because they do not want to destroy the value of the assets they might want to sell. China Can Just Let Their T-Bills Mature I pointed out to Gary that the Chinese don't have to sell any Treasuries to get out of them.  They simply have to let them mature. Then it is not China who has to sell the Treasuries, but the U.S. Treasury who has to find a new buyer to replace China.  If China were dumb enough to own a lot of 30-year government bonds, then they would have to put those bonds on the market.  That would affect the price.  In fact, if you were China, and you owned a trillion dollars worth of 30-year bonds, and you did try to sell, the price would collapse.  China may be dumb, but they are not that dumb. They own a lot of T-bills, so they will mature in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days; they don't have to sell anything.  Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

[button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="left" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington[/button] [button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="right" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington[/button]  The Bear Market Rally The big story continues to be the bear market rally that has been going on in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index  closed above 93.  The low this year was just above 88, so we've risen above 5% so far in the U.S. dollar index.  Year to date we're up on the dollar a little over 1%.  We're still down about 6% from where the dollar ended 2016, but we've had this considerable rally in a relatively short period of time.  To me, it has the makings of a bear market rally, a short-covering rally.  There hasn't been any good economic news that would explain the strength of the dollar.  In fact, I talked about Fed comments from last week which to me, are quite dovish when you have the Federal Reserve indicating a tolerance toward inflation above 2% talking about "symmetrical inflation" rather than keeping it below 2%, So to me, those are statements that would normally be negative for the dollar. Technical Rally for Short-Covering The economic data, the jobs numbers that came out last week - much weaker than expected, so all the information would actually argue against a more aggressive Fed, in favor of a more dovish Fed, yet the dollar is rising anyway.  I think it's technical, I think it's short-covering and I think it is short-sighted. Dollar Strong against Emerging Market Currencies One of the areas where the dollar is the strongest is actually against the emerging market currencies.  Not the currencies that are in the U.S. dollar index - that's dominated by the euro, the pound, the yen - but the emerging market currencies, they're the ones that are bearing the brunt of  this sell-off, and it's a self-perpetuating problem, because as these emerging currencies go down, it puts upward pressure on their already increasing inflation rate. I think inflation is picking up all around the world, but if your currency is going down, that puts even more pressure on consumer prices, and the politicians of these emerging economies are resisting higher interest rates, both to combat increasing inflation and to support a weakening currency which is only adding fuel to the fire. Currency Traders Have It Backwards What's so ironic about all this is that traders are missing the bigger point. The United States is in the exact same predicament (only worse) than the emerging economies. We are going to be faced with the same set of dynamics, in that we are going to have risingOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Fed is Willing to Tolerate Higher Inflation Today is the first Friday in May and that means we got the April Jobs Report released today, and before I actually get into the details of the jobs report, I want to talk about what happened with the Fed this week. I think that is the most significant news of the week.  The Fed's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today are the real reasons we had the 300+ point rally in the Dow today, that's why we had the 400+point turnaround in the Dow on Thursday.  It's all about the Fed and its willingness to tolerate higher inflation. Fed Inserted the word "Symmetrical" So we got the FOMC announcement on Wednesday after their 2-day meeting, and as expected, they left interest rates unchanged. The most significant part of the statement that accompanied the Fed's decision not to raise rates was inserting the word, "symmetrical" in their description of inflation.  Up until Wednesday, the Fed was always worried that we didn't have enough inflation. The inflation rate was too low, and their goal was to get it up to their 2% level. We Can Go Above 2% to the Same Extent We Were Below 2% Now the Fed is saying that they are at 2% and they expect the rate to actually go above 2%, and they're OK with it. What they mean by symmetrical is that inflation was below 2%, at least the way they measure it. It's probably always been well above it, but let's just look at the government statistics.  Based on the government statistics we had inflation of 1.4, 1.5, 1.6; it was always below 2.  So now what they're saying is we can have some symmetry on the upside, meaning, all right, we can have 2.5, because 2.5 and 1.5. the average is 2. The Fed is Actually Lifting Their Inflation Target So what the Fed is really saying is their goal is not to have 2% inflation, their goal is to have inflation that averages 2%.  So if we've had inflation of under 2% for all these years, we can have inflation of over2% by the same proportion for the same number of years and they we would have averaged 2% inflation for the entire time.  So, in reality, what the Fed is really doing, and I have been saying this all along - for years and years - they are actually lifting their inflation target.    Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy