The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day.  The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose.  Gold was up.  Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week. All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play.  In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook.  They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market.  Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter.  The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change. The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy.  They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast - Episode 433 RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. A Bear Market Correction U.S. stocks continue their correction by moving higher yet again today. Remember, when you have a bull market, the corrections are down, because you're correcting the upward trend by moving backward.  In a bear market, it's the opposite. You correct a downward trend by retracing upwards.  That's what we're doing now. I think this is the first rally in this bear market, so this rally is, in fact, a correction. Powell is now "Super Dove" I think the U.S. stock market is off to its best annual start in about a decade; certainly the NASDAQ is up I think not quite 5% - 4.7% on the year.  Of course, what got the correction going was the complete 180 by Powell in that round table discussion, where he basically reversed everything he was saying and became the "Super Dove" when it comes to rate hikes. So the market is now pricing out many rate hikes it had probably priced in and that was the catalyst to really get the market going. Markets Have Not Priced in End of Quantitative Tightening Of course, what hasn't been priced in yet are the rate cuts or the end of the quantitative tightening program and the re-launching of quantitative easing.  All that is coming. The markets just aren't there yet. They just can't see beyond where we are now. They're looking at this mountain and they don't see the valley on the other side. Interest Rates High Relative to Mountain of Debt Again, it's not the rate hikes in the future that were going to cause the recession, the rate hikes from the past have already guaranteed a recession, even though interest rates in absolute terms and relative to where they've been historically are still very low, they are not very low considering the enormity of the debt that we now have; that we didn't have historically. So when you have this mountain of debt, a historically large amount of debt, you need a historically low rate. Even though the rates we have now are still low, they're not as low as they used to be and they're not as low as they need to be.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Big Move Up Today Another big move today in the U.S. stock market except this time the big move was to the upside, more than eradicating yesterday's big decline.  In fact, looking back historically, yesterday's drop was the second biggest drop in history for the second day of the New Year. The biggest drop on the second day of a new year was in the year 2000. That was the year when the NASDAQ bubble originally popped. That big drop happened at a time where the market was peaking and we were just beginning a bear market where the U.S. stock market went down by about half and the NASDAQ went down by abut 80%.  So not a good comparison. NASDAQ Biggest Mover Up 4.25% On the other hand, today's rise was the second biggest rise for the S&P on the third day of a new year in U.S. stock market history. The biggest rise happened in 1932, and that was during the great depression.  Clearly not a good period for the U.S. stock market or the U.S. economy to have to go back to 1932 to see a third trading day in January where you have this big a gain.  In fact, the Dow was up 3.3% on the day but the S&P up 3.4%.  The biggest mover was the NASDAQ, which was up 4.25%. So much bigger than the drop that we had yesterday.  The Russell 2000 was up 3.75%. What was the Catalyst? So what was the catalyst?  Why did the U.S. stock market go up so much today after being down so much yesterday? First of all, the market started off on a positive note.  I'm pretty sure we were up 2-300 points right out of the gate in the futures, even before we got the Nonfarm Payroll number that came out at 8:30 a.m.  Futures were already trading, and there was already a big gain before that number was released. So it wasn't the jobs report that actually was responsible for today's move. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Dovish Statements It had much more to do with the comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.  Those comments were made maybe an hour or so after the stock market opened.  But let's start off early this morning.  What was propping up the market in the morning, or overnight, was more optimism that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is imminent. Now, of course, whatever trade deal is negotiated is going to do nothing.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Big Moves in the Market Today For those of you who have been waiting all year for the first Peter Schiff Show Podcast of the new year, 2019, here it is.  We finally got a day with enough worthwhile news that it made sense for me to do a podcast.  I'll probably end up doing another one tomorrow, when we get the Nonfarm payroll numbers - the jobs numbers.  We'll see if that's a big market mover.  But we had a lot of movement in the markets today; all sorts of news came out as well, weighing on the markets. Apple Closed Down 9.7% The Dow was down 660 points today - pretty much about the same drop that we had on Christmas Eve.  Now I doubt that today will be followed by a repeat of Boxing Day, where we get a 1,000 - point rally, but we'll see. The excuse of the day was probably Apple.  You can say that Apple took a bite out of the stock market today.  Apple announced yesterday just after the close that its sales would be disappointing, and Apple stock was down just under 10%.  It closed down 9.7%, pretty close to the lows of the day - not the exact lows, but it has got to be one of the biggest losses in history for Apple. Everybody Got a Rotten Apple Today Apple is very widely owned; the Swiss Central Bank is a big holder of Apple stock.  A lot of hedge funds own Apple, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has a big position in Apple - pretty much in everybody's portfolio. So everybody got a rotten Apple today. In fact, Apple is now down almost 40% - 39% from its peak price.  Remember, when it was at peak, it was over a trillion dollars in market cap. It was Apple and Amazon that were trillion dollar companies.  Well, no more.  Apple, again, has dropped not quite $400 billion in market cap from its peak.  Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Published on: Dec 28, 2018  Or Did It? It looks like the Grinch may not have been able to stop Christmas from coming to Wall Street.  It looks like the Santa Claus Rally came just the same. - or did it? The worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market was followed by the biggest Boxing Day rally in the history of the stock market. We don't celebrate Boxing Day here in the United States; all the other English-speaking nations celebrate that holiday, but maybe we'll celebrate it in the future, given the fact that the Dow Jones rallied over 1,000 points this Boxing Day.  So that more than eradicated the 650 point drop which was the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history. A Bounce Could Come at any Time If you recall, on my last podcast, I mentioned that following Christmas Eve's drop, this December was the worst December in stock market history. We has finally beaten out the 1931 December.  But I also mentioned that given the extreme oversold condition that existed in the market, it was possible that a bounce could come any minute or any day, and I was not sure whether or not we would finish as the worst December in the history of the stock market because we still had several trading days left for the market to bounce, and that is exactly what happened. The Grinch May Have a Change of Heart In fact, we managed to close positive on the week. I think the Dow finished up about 617 points.  Now, of course, we still have one more day for the Grinch to have another change of heart. If on Monday, the Dow is down more than 617 points which is easy to do given the volatility that we're seeing, especially we're no longer oversold to the extent that we were on Tuesday - then the Grinch may have ended up stealing the Santa Claus Rally anyway.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Worst Christmas Eve Day in Stock Market History As I thought would be the case, it looks like the Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally.  Normally, the U.S. stock market rallies during the final five trading days of the year between Christmas and New Year's Day. But today was not only the worst Christmas Eve day in stock market history, it blew apart the old record.  In fact, there has never been a Christmas Eve day where the S&P or the Dow fell by as much as 1%. Today, the Dow Jones dropped better than 650 points - 2.9% on the day. Officially Not a Correction Although the Dow now is the only major index not officially in a bear market (now down 19.15% from its peak), but the S&P 500, which dropped 2.7% today is now down just over 20%.  So it's now official, Wall Street can stop pretending that it's a correction, they have to admit that it's a bear market. Now, if they want to hang their had on the Dow, O.K. well they can hang it there maybe for one more trading day, because it's not going to take much for the Dow to join the party.  Of course, other indexes are extending moves into bear market territory. The Dow Transports are down 25.7%; the NASDAQ just under 24% to the downside. The Russell 2000 Losing Gains Rapidly The Russell 2000 is down 27.3%.  This index is down better than 5-1/2% since Donald Trump was inaugurated.  This was the index that was supposed to benefit the most from Trump's economic policies.  It's still up about 6% since he was elected President. So all that hype is still in there. But at the rate the index is falling, this index is going to lose those gains pretty rapidly. Then, of course, Trump is not going to be able to talk about all the wealth that has been created in the stock market since he's been elected, because all that paper wealth will have been destroyed.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ NASDAQ Now in Bear Territory It was a big down day, in fact there was even more carnage in the NASDAQ.  Today is the day that NASDAQ finally slipped into bear market territory. So, Wall Street's been calling this a correction the whole way, well now the NASDAQ is down 22%, joining the Russell 2000, down 26% and the Transports down 24%.  Those 3 indexes are now officially in bear markets. It's All a Matter of Time But what does that mean? That means when the NASDAQ was only down 5%, it was in a bear market. That's exactly what I was saying. They don't acknowledge the bear market until it's down 20%, but that doesn't mean it's not in a bear market. It just means nobody wants to admit that it's a bear market.   Now we still have 2 indexes that are not in bear markets, the S&P 500 is now down almost 18% and the Dow Jones is down just under 17%.  So Wall Street maybe can cling to the notion that these indexes are not in bear markets because they're not down 20%.  Look, it's all a matter of time.  As I said on the last podcast, I thought that the NASDAQ would be in a bear market by the end of the week and that's exactly what happened, and I'm pretty sure that the S&P 500 and the Dow are going to join this party before the end of the year. Huge Bear Market in FAANG Stocks Today's decline started off as a rally.  The Dow was up about 400 points this morning, before it collapsed.  So we basically reversed yesterday's decline and then we got clobbered and took out new lows. The NASDAQ was down 3%.  That was the weakest index, and it was led down by the FAANG stocks, which are now down collectively, on average, 35%. This is just generally in the last few months. So this is a huge bear market in the FAANG stocks. The worst of the FAANG's is Facebook, which was down big again today, like 5 of 6%.  Facebook is now down 43%.  Second place, is Netflix, down 42%, then Amazon down 33%, and lastly, Google, which is down only 23%. Google just finally went into a bear market this week. If you look at the charts, there is nothing but air - there is a long way down between where we are now and where any kind of trend lines or support lines could be drawn.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Seventh Rate Hike since Trump's Election As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve nudged up the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point.  The Fed is now targeting their rate at 2.25 - 2.5%.  So the range is somewhere in the middle, there. This marks the sixth time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates since Donald Trump has been President, and the seventh time that the Fed has hiked rates since Trump was elected. Remember, during the entirety of Obama's 8-year Presidency, the Fed raised interest rates only once. A 900-point Selloff What the markets did not expect was the dovish hike to be so hawkish. In fact, the minute I heard the language, I was surprised that the Dow didn't immediately sell off, more than it did. It had a bit of a bounce before it sold off, the Dow Jones ended up down just over 350 points.  The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause.  That was on neutral - that it wasn't really planning any more rate hikes for 2019, and would just play it by ear. It was going to be data dependent. Dow's Worst December since 1932 But what the Federal Reserve said in their official statement that accompanied the news was that they had reduced their expectation for rate hikes for next year from 3 to just 2 anticipated rate hikes.  Now, that may be considered dovish, but it did not nearly meet the expectations of the market.  It was expecting something much more than that. When I heard that, I thought, "The market's going to get killed." And it did go down but I think a lot more of the carnage is going to happen probably later in the week and next week.  In fact, the market is now down so much that the Dow is having its worst December since 1932.  Of course, that was the beginning of the Great Depression.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Two Podcasts in One Day! For those of you who were worried that I wasn't going to be able to do a podcast today to talk about the stock market or the economy because I already did a podcast earlier this morning, well, you're wrong! Here I am, doing my second podcast of the day.  This may be an unprecedented event. I don't know if I've ever recorded 2 podcasts in the same day. Don't Miss This Morning's Podcast on the Unconstitutionality of Obamacare The reason I did the earlier podcast was because I wanted to address the topic of the Federal court in Texas striking down the ACA individual mandate and rendering the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. I would encourage you to listen to that podcast if you are interested in this topic or the Constitution to listen to it in its entirety. Not a Crash, but Regular Volatility But let's talk about another big down Monday.  As I suggested when I did my podcast on Friday, I'm still thinking that there is a possibility of a Black Monday type event this year.  I said we were running out of Mondays because we only had 3 left, and now one down.  This, again was not a crash, but the Dow did close down better than 500 points.  At one point, we were down over 600.  You know, these big drops are not becoming a recurring event - they add up, right? Worst December Start Since 1980 If you look at the charts, we look extremely vulnerable to a big drop. I read that already, we're off to the worse start for a December since 1980. That was really the end of the last bear market. We had a bear market that went from 1966 to 1982, so the last time we had a December this week was at the tail end of that long-term secular bear market.Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Decision May Well Stand up under Appeal A Federal Judge in the state of Texas, U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor, has ruled that the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, is unconstitutional, and therefore the law would be null and void, that it would be struck down.  Of course this will be the subject of appeal, so whether or not this decision is going to hold is still an open question. But if you listen to the way it is being reported in the media, the reaction from a lot of the people, particularly the Democrats, is that they are accusing this judge of being partisan, being a judicial activist, that this is a ridiculous crazy decision and that it will clearly be overturned.  All this is a bunch of nonsense. The judge in this case is completely correct. Obamacare was unconstitutional before this decision. The Rationale Behind Judge's Ruling This particular judge focused on one aspect of the law, but there are so many reasons this law is unconstitutional. But for the purpose of this podcast is to focus on the rationale behind the judge's ruling and why I believe the decision is valid and may, in fact stand up under appeal.   Under the new makeup of the Supreme Court, some of the new justices could easily side with the original dissent to form a new majority now that the law itself has been changed based on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is the basis of this particular decision. Read Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution I did an earlier podcast on whether or not the U.S. government could require American citizens to purchase health insurance. Now the theory was that they had the right to do this under what is now known as the Commerce Clause (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution), one of the single most understood Constitutional clauses which has enabled the government to get away with all sorts of things that the Constitution does not authorize. This is where all the powers to the Federal government are delegated. One of the powers is to regulate commerce with foreign nations and among the several states and with the Indian tribes. That's it. Constitution Allows Federal Government to Regulate Commerce, not Companies Now based on that clause, you have had Supreme Courts validate government regulation of companies because the government claims that since those companies engage in interstate commerce, that it falls within that power, that Congress can regulate these companies because the company is engaged in commerce. Of course, that's not what it says.  The Constitution doesn't say the Federal government has the right to regulate companies that engage in interstate commerce, it just says it can regulate the commerce, itself. The commerce has to do with the flow of goods and services over state borders. So this is an unconstitutional expansion of Federal power. The Federal government does not have the constitutional authority to regulate businesses simply because these businesses happen to engage in interstate commerce. Federal Regulation of Business Outside of Constitutional Authority But that was even the camel's nose under the tent, because then it got worse.  Then what happened is companies that were regulated that did no interstate commerce were saying, "this law does not apply to me because I don't engage in interstate commerce." But the Supreme Court said that the Federal government under the Commerce Clause can regulate companies that do not even engage in interstate commerce if they can show that those companies somehow effect interstate commerce, even though they themselves do not participate in it. So now,Our Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy