UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The US personal consumer expenditure deflator remains in disinflation. Durable goods prices sank ever deeper into deflation. Market-based prices showed disinflation, as did services excluding financial service (financial service prices often follow market valuation). There was an intensely technical clarification about calculating owners’ equivalent rent—price no real person pays or cares about, but which excites economists. The clarification makes it unlikely OER will add more to inflation this year.

Our conversation provides a performance update and outlook for hedge funds, along with a look at the investment case for hedge fund investing in the current environment. We also cover considerations when it comes to participating in the asset class. Featured is Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, David Lefkowitz, Rolf Ganter, and Crystal Zhao, as they share an economic and market outlook.

Yesterday’s US GDP revisions did not add much to investors’ stock of knowledge. The US consumer proved stronger than initially thought, as US consumers so often are. The market-based personal consumer expenditure deflator has slowed quite notably over recent quarters. What good old fashioned supply and demand is doing is creating a quite powerful disinflation story.

Our conversation outlines considerations when it comes to earmarking assets for tax-efficient retirement spending, along with those for inheritance and philanthropy. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US fourth quarter GDP data is revised today. This does not give us a slightly less ill-informed picture of economic activity at the end of last year, but it is still likely to miss quite a lot that is going on in the economy. Economies are changing faster than statisticians, and things like home working and self-employment are challenges—to say nothing of recording the economic value of the latest TikTok meme. Early GDP numbers are inclined to underreport activity, although today’s data is unlikely to correct all of that underreporting.

Brian Levitt is a Global Market Strategist at Invesco. Brian shares is economic outlook (including a look at the US inflation picture), reflects on the Q4 reporting season, and outlines his preferences when it comes to asset allocation. We also spend time examining the Fed’s course for monetary policy, namely the timing for rate cuts in 2024. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the cataylsts behind the stall in the muni rally, examine the results of CIO’s annual review of widely held New York credits, and look at some muni-related portfolio themes. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As officials in Washington DC meet to negotiate an aid package for Ukraine and avert a partial shutdown of the US government, Shane discusses what’s at stake and how negotiations might progress from here. We also recap the South Carolina primary and preview upcoming milestones on the campaign trail, along with recap last week’s Governor’s Summitt at the White House. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this episode, we’re rejoined by Katherine Kroll of Brown Advisory for a discussion around the decarbonization of the shipping industry, and how this intersects with artificial intelligence. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Katherine Kroll, Director of Equity Research, Sustainable Investing with Brown Advisory. Host: Daniel Cassidy