UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The Bank of Japan did exactly what the Nikkei said it would. The only surprise was that two members of the policy committee appear not to have read the article, and disobeyed by dissenting. The Bank of Japan has had more internal dissent than the Federal Reserve in the past 18 months. Dissent between economists is perfectly natural.

Experts from Sprott Asset Management and UBS discuss the progress and challenges of the energy transition, focusing on technological innovations like nuclear and hydrogen. They explore investment opportunities in energy equities, critical materials like uranium and copper, and emphasize the importance of a diverse mix of solutions for a successful transition.

Portfolio managers from UBS Asset Management discuss recent economic data challenges, Fed chair statements, insights on fixed income markets, effective duration management strategies, and strategic investment approaches across yield curve segments.

Join us as we explore a new provision that allows excess college 529 assets to be rolled to the 529 beneficiary’s Roth IRA. Isaac Chota, UBS 529 and Donor-advised fund program manager and George Walsh, UBS IRA program manager, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discuss the possibilities and limitations of such rollovers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US interest rate expectations jumped about yesterday. There was a lack of either meaningful data or Federal Reserve commentary. However, there is also a lack of a medium-term policy framework, articulating the Fed’s views on the interaction between policy and economics. At a time of structural change, that lack of a framework encourages volatility.

Analysis of recent economic data and its impact on Fed policy decisions, investment outlook, and positioning recommendations discussed. Anticipation of Fed's rate cuts and implications for investment outlook highlighted. Insights from Jason Dreyho's blog 'Speed Bumps' on UBS website shared.

Topics discussed include Congressional action against TikTok, developments in Haiti, and the potential entrance of No Labels into the 2024 presidential race. The podcast also explores the strategy of forming unity tickets in politics and provides updates on Washington publication and UBS financial services.

This week marks a new phase in the battle between markets and central banks about the timing of rate cuts. We are not at the end—no one is expecting the assorted central bank meetings to produce rate cuts this week. We are not at the beginning of the end—explicit forward guidance of rate cuts also seems unlikely. But we are at the end of the beginning. Ongoing disinflation forces continue to make a forceful case for rate cuts in the second quarter.

Explore recent equity market trends, potential for a modest pullback, recommended equity positioning focusing on healthcare and industrial sectors, analysis of February CPI data in the US, preview of upcoming economic and earnings events including General Mills, Micron, and Nike earnings reports.

We have consumer inflation expectations surveys from the US and UK today. These will probably generate media excitement, but economically they are meaningless noise. Consumers’ inflation expectations are shaped by high-frequency purchases like food and fuel—most UK and US deflation is focused on low frequency purchases like durable goods. Inflation perceptions have more to do with the daily cost of buying a Snickers bar than the actual cost of living—although slower US food price inflation and UK supermarkets’ two-tier pricing may help lower perceptions.