UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Tune in for to hear commentary on the first debate between President Biden and former President Trump. How might the debate impact the election in November and your investments?

France’s second-round legislative election produced an unexpected result, with the far right Rassemblement National pushed into third place. This highlights again a market problem—politics is becoming more important to markets, but opinion polls are less reliable as a guide to outcomes. Polarization means financial institutions try to strike a neutral tone—“opinion polls suggest” rather than “we believe that”, but if polls are less reliable market mispricing is more common.

The UK general election result is now clear (for the benefit of US readers, many countries are able to get a definitive result within hours of voting having concluded). The result was entirely as expected by markets, with the Labour Party winning a sizable majority. Former Prime Minister Truss (who presided over the Truss debacle in markets) lost her seat.

US markets are closed as the country celebrates its attempt to escape rule by a monarch. There has been media speculation about US President Biden’s candidacy for re-election. Markets are not likely to react to such speculation at this stage. Politically, markets primarily focus on the probabilities of economic policy change.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates. This is a rather risky point of view. US inflation has collapsed more than eight percentage points, and the harmonized measure is below 2%. Taking time means tightening policy further. Can the US economy withstand more tightening?

The British Retail Consortium shop price index (measuring prices in selected stores in the UK) sank to a 0.2% y/y rate. Is this the end of profit-led inflation? Profit-led inflation occurs when retailers use a dominant narrative to disguise profit increases when raising prices. However, at some point, price increases become the dominant narrative and consumer rebellion defeats margin expansion.

The first round of the French elections produced results broadly in line with opinion polls (as to the popular vote). An unusually large number of second-round votes could be three-way contests. That makes the final outcome harder to predict. In the past, there has been a “front républicain” with third-placed moderate candidates withdrawing to increase the chances of defeating a more extreme party (in this election, the Rassemblement National). It is not clear how many constituencies will follow such a strategy.

Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.

Financial expert Burkhard Varnholt discusses global election developments, including US Presidential debate, UK and France snap elections impact on markets. Strategies for investors during election-induced volatility, risks of fiscal deficits, and importance of US Treasuries. Analysis of European elections' impact on markets, government debt, EU policies, and implications for Eurozone and US dollar. Stay informed on global election updates and UBS content offerings.

Shane Lieberman previews the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump, discussing potential focus areas. Analysis of latest national and swing-state polling trends. Mention of debate conditions and expectations for the candidates.