UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President-elect Trump gave a wide ranging interview, touching on several points that matter to investors. Trump seemed to acknowledge the independence of the Federal Reserve (the chair cannot be dismissed on presidential whim). This will reassure markets. Investors may, however, be concerned by the determination to deport migrants established in the US economy.

As we close out another trading week, Mike Gourd drops by to recap the latest employment data, along with the remarks from several Fed officials this past week, including those of Chairman Jerome Powell. Plus, a look at what investors should expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends in employment, US President-elect Trump is proposing policies that might mark a structural break in employment conditions (most obviously deportations and tariffs).

In this episode, Shane updates on several key legislative priorities of Congress before year-end, including a government funding bill, a Farm bill, and the National Defense Authorization Act. We also take inventory of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees, and the prospects for confirmations in early 2025. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the momentum across US equity markets, and weighs how a range of risk-factors could impact the longevity of the bull-run as we head into 2025. Burkhard also ponders the relationship between valuations and return expectations, plus shares thoughts on geopolitical developments within France and South Korea in recent days.

As expected, French Prime Minister Barnier lost a vote of confidence. That was the shortest-lived French government in over sixty years (he did outlast the lifespan of une salade verte, however). The likely options for fiscal policy are either a compromise budget under the new government, or rolling the 2024 budget into 2025. Neither offers much fiscal consolidation, but investors know this already.

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to economies across Asia, namely that of China. We also spend time identifying key investment opportunities across the region that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the UK, 11pm is when pubs close and the risk of sending incoherent text messages increases. In South Korea, 11pm was when President Yoon decided to declare martial law. Parliament rejected this, martial law was rescinded, the cabinet is threatening to resign en masse, and impeachment proceedings against Yoon start today. The Bank of Korea pledged unlimited liquidity to markets.

Our series of year ahead conversations continue with a look at expectations for emerging market assets in 2025, including equities, bonds, and currencies. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over the budget. A likely scenario would be Barnier continuing as a caretaker prime minister, and the 2024 budget being rolled over.