UBS On-Air: Market Moves

On this episode, Jason and Ron meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities as it relates to potential outcome scenarios of the upcoming US election. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist with Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on Oct 17.

As talk of a “no landing” scenario for the US economy has reemerged, Jason weighs whether the US economy has already landed, though with a 5% nominal growth rate. We also discuss CIO’s recent upgrade of equities to “attractive” and outline additional asset class views per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German September producer prices are expected to stay in deflation (this is not a surprise, they have been in deflation for over a year). While other factors will add noise to consumer price data, producer prices are a better reflection of corporate pricing power. The deflation signals should secure expectations for further rate cuts from the ECB.

US data once again reminded investors of the wisdom of never underestimating the hedonism of the US consumer. September retail sales were strong (the data do include the effect of inflation). Consumers are often disbelieving of the data, but the value of US retail sales are up over 25% from the start of 2021 while goods inflation is up a little more than 17% over the same period. That suggests a rising living standard, at least when measured by material possessions.

As we look towards year-end, Frank Sileo drops by the studio to provide a performance update and outlook for the preferred securities sector. We also spend some time highlighting positioning considerations within preferreds. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB meets. Final September Eurozone consumer price data should confirm that inflation has fallen almost nine percentage points from its peak, and a whole percentage point this year. Cutting rates is simply an act of chasing inflation lower and keeping real rates stable.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Former US President Trump suggested tariffs of up to 2,000% on cars imported from Mexico (an unconventional interpretation of NAFTA). US and European investors have viewed proposed tariffs as a bargaining device, not to be taken seriously. The random suggestion of numbers like 2,000% does suggest more rhetoric than rigorous policy analysis. However, the repeated theme of trade taxes implies the policy is important.

Our conversation updates on relief and recovery efforts for hurricane-impacted states, recent developments surrounding growing tensions across the Middle East, and what key swing state polling is pointing to with Election Day just a few weeks away. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data are due. Employment is not a constraint on British consumers (and unemployment data come with quality health warnings). Average earnings will be a market focus, although if flexible working allows people to move into higher paid employment this raises average earnings without raising wages.