Politicology

Mike Madrid (Lincoln Project cofounder) and Anthony York (Senior Communications Advisor to Gov. Gavin Newsom) join host Ron Steslow to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:(03:10) The lack of a Red Wave and the surprisingly good midterms for Democrats(08:50) Democrats’ Florida Problem(22:33) Republicans’ Donald Trump Problem (50:00) The potential Trump vs DeSantis showdown in the Republican Primary[Politicology+ Subscribers Only] What could (and should) the political futures of Beto O’Rourke and Stacy Abrams look like after losing the Governors races in Texas and Georgia Politicology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, with subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.Follow this week’s panel on Twitter:https://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/madrid_mikehttps://twitter.com/anthonyyork49 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ron Steslow calls some Politicology fan favorites to discuss the midterm elections, the surprisingly good night for Democrats, the races that are still too close to call, and what it could mean for future elections.(00:44) Susan Del Percio on the Democratic strategy to set up races against extreme MAGA candidates(05:29) Mike Madrid on the biggest surprise from last night and the early count out of Nevada(10:52) Tharon Johnson on what Sen. Warnock needs to do to win in the December runoff(23:48) Lucy Caldwell on the gap between Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs early vote counts and why she’s cautiously optimistic that Hobbs can still win(35:31) Zack Czajkowski on the unexpected victory for Democrats in the North Carolina 13th Congressional District (49:16) David Becker on what the midterms could mean for election integrity moving forward(57:47) Lanae Erickson on why the Dobbs decision—and not the student loan forgiveness plan— drove turnout for Democrats in Pennsylvania(1:05:45) Marc Polymeropoulos on the importance of people with national security experience in politics (1:14:19) Former DCCC Chair and Former Congressman Steve Israel on how the slimmer margin for Republicans could give the extremist wing more leverage in the next congressFollow this episodes guests on Twitter:https://twitter.com/DelPercioShttps://twitter.com/madrid_mikehttps://twitter.com/TharonJohnsonhttps://twitter.com/lucymcaldwellhttps://twitter.com/ZackCzhttps://twitter.com/beckerdavidjhttps://twitter.com/RepSteveIsraelhttps://twitter.com/Mpolymerhttps://twitter.com/LanaeEricksonhttps://twitter.com/RonSteslow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plusHave you made your plan to vote? Visit https://iwillvote.com/ to make sure you’re registered and find your polling locationThis week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins host Ron Steslow to set the table for what to expect in the midterm elections.Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. (01:38) How the generic ballot looks(02:50) Movement in Senate forecasting (03:40) The claim that Republicans are gaming polling averages(07:40) The challenge of polling response bias(09:30) Races that could indicate a good or bad night for Democrats(15:53) Whether low turnout still favors Republicans (22:14) A race that could indicate whether the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade increased turnoutFollow Decision Desk HQ’s live election results: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/Follow Kiel and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/KielTWilliamshttps://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doug Jones (Fmr. Democratic U.S. Senator from Alabama), Mike Madrid (Lincoln Project cofounder) and Lucy Caldwell (Walsh 2020 Campaign Manager) join host Ron Steslow to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:(03:11) The Fed’s rate hikes, Biden’s push to expand the workforce, and the threats to Social Security heading into the midterms (23:03) Liz Cheney endorses her first Democratic candidate and John Fetterman drops an ad featuring two Trump-voting former Republicans—his parents.  (42:33) The attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, in their San Francisco home [Politicology+ Subscribers Only] The biggest misconception about money in politics and the outrage economy driving political fundraising and media coverage Politicology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, with subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.Follow this week’s panel on Twitter:https://twitter.com/dougjoneshttps://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/madrid_mikehttps://twitter.com/lucymcaldwell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Major Garrett (CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent) and David Becker (Executive Director of The Center for Election Innovation and Research) talk with Ron Steslow about their new book, The Big Truth, the lies about the 2020 election, and how we can restore trust in our electoral system. (01:55) Why they decided to write the book now(05:00) Setting the stakes for our current state of distrust in elections (08:57) How Trump supporters view the breakdown in democratic norms(14:17) Why we can’t lose sight of the January 6 riot (24:00) How election denialism has changed electoral politics(34:53) How the Federalist Papers predicted a Trump-like figure (38:42) The threat of pushing election deniers in primary elections (43:21) The “Big Truth” of the 2020 election(57:10) How geographic sorting changes trust in elections (1:13:11) Where do we go from here? Follow Major, David, and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/MajorCBShttps://twitter.com/beckerdavidjhttps://twitter.com/RonSteslow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plusThis week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins host Ron Steslow to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. (01:36) Changes to the election environment (05:00) How the Senate races have shifted (06:53) Republicans increased odds of taking the Senate(06:53) What’s moving the needle in Pennsylvania and Nevada(12:17) What’s going on in the House races(14:20)What we can (and can’t) learn from early voting numbers(18:37)The balance of powerYou should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/Follow Kiel and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/KielTWilliamshttps://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One thing Pete Buttigeg, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bennet have in common? They all wanted Rob Sand’s endorsement in their Presidential campaigns.Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand is a Democrat from a small town who likes to hunt and fish and has been able to connect with the white, non-college educated rural voters that Democrats across the country have been struggling to win. Ron Steslow and Mike Madrid talk with him about how he did it in 2018, how he’s doing it in this election cycle, and what Democratic candidates in higher profile races can learn.(02:10) Why Rob decided to run for auditor(05:25) How he can win Iowa voters as a Democrat(08:47) How he picked up endorsements from 31 conservatives (11:10) The “myth of monsters” and how it increases partisanship(18:03)Humor as an election tool (21:15) The advice he gave presidential primary candidates as they vied for the Iowa Caucuses You should visit Rob’s campaign website: https://robsand.com/Follow Rob, Mike, and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/RobSandIAhttps://twitter.com/madrid_mikehttps://twitter.com/RonSteslow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Madrid (Lincoln Project cofounder) Al Cardenas (former advisor to Presidents Regan and George H.W. Bush) and Molly McKew (Lead author of GreatPower.US) join host Ron Steslow to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:(02:45) Putin’s war in Ukraine and Kevin McCarthy’s threat to cut aid to Ukraine if Republicans take back the House. (20:36) The Pennsylvania Senate Debate and the Nevada Senate race that can determine who controls the Senate in January (47:02) The extremist groups threatening to intimidate voters in the midterm elections [Politicology+ Subscribers Only] The effectiveness of the climate change activism food fight + Latinos naming climate change as a top issue heading into the midtermsPoliticology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, where we also publish subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.Support Molly McKew’s fundraiser for Ukranian AFU Stratcom’s winter gear: https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/8O0wORTDJgFollow this week’s panel on Twitter:https://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/madrid_mikehttps://twitter.com/MollyMcKewhttps://twitter.com/AlCardenasFL_DC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What are the psychological forces driving that partisan animosity?What’s causing Americans to vote for anti-democracy candidates? Are there any interventions that might actually work to turn down the heat and save our democracy? Robb Willer, professor of sociology, psychology, and organizational behavior at Stanford University talks with Ron Steslow about Stanford’s Strengthening Democracy Challenge, reducing partisan animosity and support for anti-democracy candidates .(01:31) Robbs background(02:46) The growth of polarization and partisan animosity (15:08) The Strengthening Democracy Challenge(22:40) Negative partisanship and support for undemocratic candidates(29:46) How cues from leaders can reduce support for anti-democracy candidates(32:17) Working together and respectfully discussing differences reduces partisan animosity (37:47) Misperceptions about how how you’re viewed by members of another party fuels animosity (46:47) Is there hope for overcoming animosity and acceptance of undemocratic candidates? (53:16) How to implement these ideas(59:23) The role of emotions in decision makingYou should check out the interventions we discussed: Elite Cues: https://bit.ly/3TEeS6ZPositive Contact (Heineken Ad): https://bit.ly/3N74PEMMisperceptions: https://bit.ly/3W4iMaNFear of Democratic Collapse: https://bit.ly/3W4awHOFollow Robb and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/RobbWillerhttps://twitter.com/RonSteslow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plusThis week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins host Ron Steslow to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. (01:15) Changes to the election environment (02:40) Why it the midterms might look like 2014(04:44) How the Senate races have shifted (09:10) Republicans increased odds of taking the Senate(10:30) What’s going on in the House races(15:25)The balance of powerYou should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/Follow Kiel and Ron on Twitter:https://twitter.com/KielTWilliamshttps://twitter.com/RonSteslowhttps://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices