The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - What elements are ACTUALLY rare?(11:00) - Can gallium mining be profitable in the US?(14:44) - Chinese rare earth export controls (Gallium & Germanium)(16:44) - Is Lithium just a current boom/bust cycle?(21:45) - When will the US start approving more domestic mines? Does Democracy gum up our ability to mine freely?(24:15) - Is China on the cutting edge of mining technology? Can the US catch up?(27:35) - What are the ramifications of multipolarity on mining? (31:00) - Is cutting dependence on China all talk? What will disruption look like?(35:10) - Will PGM controls stall US technological progress?(37:15) - Vertical integrations of mines into companies (think Tesla)(38:20) - Semiconductors are beginning to vertically integrate--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse?(07:16) - North American weather predictions(14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023(22:00) – What is El Niño and Niña?(26:30) - Are we transitioning into El Niño?(27:50) - How long to El Niño's last?(31:12) - Long-term ramifications of El Nino(35:50) - Larger weather trends?(40:00) - 10 year forecast(51:00) - Preventing another Dust Bowl(53:00) - Europe forecast(58:00) - Will Europe be warmer and wetter?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:15) - Ireland Check-In(09:40) - Migration Flows and the European Union(18:01) - Brazil's EV Transition(31:12) - China and EV's(36:46) - China's Future(44:11) - Consumption is the key to recovery in China?(47:20) - China and US relations thawing?(56:00) - Wheat and LNG--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-19/why-brazil-is-falling-behind-in-the-electric-car-transition--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains. We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary(04:10) - Who does this affect?(07:30) - Sunflower oil importers(10:33) - Putin's twisted logic(12:12) - Turkey's role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative(14:50) - What happens next?(19:59) - Most likely scenarios--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - Inflation(05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?(10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?(14:06) - Germanium and Gallium(16:30) - Geopolitics(17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?(33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms(40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI(47:44) - Quality of food(51:35) - Peruvian Unrest--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive (05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?(25:11) - Was the coup planned??(26:11) - Russian military morale(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsJacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports(12:21) - Natural gas teaser--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:05) - Catching Up(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data(14:40) - Getting Meta(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China(28:00) - AI Infrastructure (36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations(53:30) - Protests in France--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) - Colorado River(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?(14:20) - How do we fix this?(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?(23:37) - Arizona vs. California (25:09) - Legal issues with water(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?(42:15) - Where do we go from here?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish).--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:42) - Chase predicts a recession(12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap(15:30) - Macro credit(18:20) - Futures in a recession(21:00) - Signals and signs(26:00) - Bullish on Japan(29:00) - Japanese demographics(34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader(37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets(41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus(44:44) – Nigeria's Future(50:00) - Nigerian Politics(53:47) - Natural gas(01:04:00) - Sports :)--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.