The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers.--Referenced in the Show:Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJYEmre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Javier Milei--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization(07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization(15:15) - Is IP ever safe?(24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China(30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations(39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production?(47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:30) - U.S-China relations(32:04) - Investing--Referenced in the Show:Fight in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO9fnjshHvgChinese readout: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202311/t20231116_11181442.htmlUS readout: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/Tweet: https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1722409650380005859?s=20--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:52) - Polish elections(09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO?(14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war(20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition?(22:45) - Nuclear proliferation(28:00) - Russia-Ukraine war(29:16) - What's next for Poland/Polish awakening(40:05) - Turkey in relation to Poland/Ukraine(44:43) - Israeli's lack of strategic depth--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

The podcast covers the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S., credit quality issues in the U.S. economy, and troubles faced by Ukraine. They also discuss the positive developments in Brazil. The hosts explore the challenges faced by the U.S. energy economy and the changing importance of cash in Ukraine.

Hafsa Halawa, with deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Sudanese civil war, discusses the regional turmoil, Israel's perspective and strategic goals, the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics, Sudan's civil war, Egypt's spiraling situation, and Ethiopia's civil war in an insightful and engaging conversation.

Helen Thompson, Professor of Cambridge University, discusses her book on global disorder and predicts hard times ahead. Topics include changing geopolitical landscape, understanding Putin's motivations, Suez Crisis, future of Germany and EU, Turkey's role, economic nationhood, inflation, efficiency of democratic vs authoritarian regimes, and future of the UK.

The podcast covers a range of interesting topics including the latest Fed announcement, China's new approach to semiconductors, the danger of monopolistic industries, issues with EV production, and geopolitical trends driving CI's macro strategy.

Discussion on the surprising election results in Argentina, analysis of Peronism's influence on Argentine politics, speculation on the next round of voting, and insights into US policy toward Venezuela and its potential impact on the region.