The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Helen Thompson, Professor of Cambridge University, discusses her book on global disorder and predicts hard times ahead. Topics include changing geopolitical landscape, understanding Putin's motivations, Suez Crisis, future of Germany and EU, Turkey's role, economic nationhood, inflation, efficiency of democratic vs authoritarian regimes, and future of the UK.

The podcast covers a range of interesting topics including the latest Fed announcement, China's new approach to semiconductors, the danger of monopolistic industries, issues with EV production, and geopolitical trends driving CI's macro strategy.

Discussion on the surprising election results in Argentina, analysis of Peronism's influence on Argentine politics, speculation on the next round of voting, and insights into US policy toward Venezuela and its potential impact on the region.

The podcast discusses the US macro cycle and Europe, exploring the impact of the US macroeconomy on global markets. It also delves into the challenges of immigration and integration, the pitfalls of investing in gurus, and the qualities of a good analyst. The hosts emphasize the importance of humility in investing and caution against prescriptive language. They end with a lighthearted conversation about enhancing one's sense of humor.

The hosts discuss the rise of uncertainty, importance of attention, and impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. They delve into topics such as U.S.-Venezuela relations, Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, and the future of Mexico. They explore the relationship between attention, uncertainty, and investments, and touch upon Warren Buffett's career and short-termism in American politics. They also examine the concept of progress, its measurement, and the exponential growth of technology.

Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war(09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe(12:20) - Turkey in a regional war(16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia(19:23) - Prospects for regional war(26:49) – Turkey-China(28:25) – What if the conflict spills?--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, discusses the Western Balkans, Ukraine's EU prospects, Azerbaijan's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Central Asia's intersecting interests. They also touch on China's lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and make a plea for more Georgian food. The topics covered include Serbia/Kosovo conflict, Ukraine/Russia relations, South Caucasus, Central Asia, and China's perspective on Taiwan.

The podcast discusses the conflict in Israel and Gaza, analyzing Hamas's intentions, Israeli weaknesses, and the implications of a multipolar world. They also explore the threats of technology, golden age thinking, and the influence of social media.

The podcast covers topics such as the U.S. bond market, worrying developments in the Chinese economy, gold as an investment opportunity, emerging markets like Chile, Turkey, and Argentina, and thoughts on energy markets.

Kamran Bokhari discusses the Israeli-Palestinian war with Jacob. They explore regional considerations, Iran's support of Hamas, and potential scenarios. They also touch on Iran's future, Israel's possible actions against Hezbollah, and Biden's next steps. Turkey's role and Egypt's involvement are also mentioned.