The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

In this podcast, Jacob and Rodger discuss North Korea's shift in referring to South Korea, the implications for the region, and potential scenarios. They explore internal dynamics, U.S. election impacts, and Rodger's insights on demographics and military tech. The episode offers a deep dive into geopolitics and strategic analysis.

Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30)– Eau Claire, WI(04:30) – Tires(24:15) – China and Mexico(30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis(43:37)– Human capital(51:00) – Quick global roundup--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Hosts discuss U.S. inflation, China's deflation impact, political implications, and global geopolitical risks. They explore economic forecasting, alternative investment strategies, and interconnectedness between countries. The conversation includes insights on global challenges, political shifts, and tensions in South America over territorial claims and oil reserves.

Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:45) – U.S. macro(09:26) – Oil(20:15) – NatGas(27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China(41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan(49:10) – Bitcoin--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Caroline Eaton Tracey joins the podcast to offer a thoughtful perspective on the Rio Grande River based on her recent article in The New York Review of Books. After discussing how dams on the river supported by the Mexican and U.S. governments have changed local communities and endangered natural ecosystems, they turn to Caroline’s new research interest and the topic of her forthcoming book: Salt Lakes.--Timestamps:Caroline’s website – https://cetracey.com/Stopping the Old Rio Grande – https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/01/11/stopping-the-old-rio-grande/Climate change and the Rio Grande – https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-and-drought-take-a-toll-on-the-once-mighty-rio-grandeSatellite images of the Rio Grande – https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150244/rio-grande-runs-dry-then-wet--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(04:45) - US Economy(14:05) – Middle East(24:00) – Oil(35:50)– Natural gas(42:12) – Ukraine--Referenced in the Show:Link to affective polarization article: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-united-states-what-research-says-pub-90457--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially in relation to Oct. 7 and the Red Sea shipping disruptions.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) - What happened with the attack in Jordan?(11:24) - Who was behind the attack? Was it Iran?(20:26) - Chances for a regional war/Iran’s red lines(31:00) – What does Iran want and how will it affect Red Sea shipping(41:08) – Iran-China relations(46:00) – Iran’s domestic politics--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:24) – 2023 in review(07:56) – El Niño and the MEI(14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America(26:35) – Buoys tangent(31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America(35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl(44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places in the world to live--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:45) - Semiconductors(13:05) - How the government assesses risk(27:19) – EVs(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture!Up for discussion in this episode:Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping laneLogistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this oneTaiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?China/Argentina tradeOn to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild rideIt doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopoliticsThe outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says-- CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor