The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:24) – 2023 in review(07:56) – El Niño and the MEI(14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America(26:35) – Buoys tangent(31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America(35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl(44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places in the world to live--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:45) - Semiconductors(13:05) - How the government assesses risk(27:19) – EVs(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture!Up for discussion in this episode:Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping laneLogistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this oneTaiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?China/Argentina tradeOn to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild rideIt doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopoliticsThe outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says-- CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:10) - Present and Future of Oil(19:15) - China/Taiwan(37:25)– France(42:49) – Listener Q&A – Red Sea(49:45) – Q&A – Under the radar--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective(15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions(33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my(40:20) – Black Swans--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germany…before a mea culpa about Ethiopian Airlines. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (03:14) - Red Sea Update(14:00) - The World Bank(24:40) - Let's talk about state institutions(32:43) - Multipolarity, protectionism, & the destabilizing influence of unchecked capital flows(40:53) - Germany(45:50)- Ecuador: What cocaine and the Catholic Church have in common(54:07) - USA, USA, USA--Referenced in the Show:Protectionism: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/protectionism-trade-restrictions-reach-an-alltime-high-826372023 Global Cocaine Report:https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/cocaine/Global_cocaine_report_2023.pdfWorld Bank 2024 Economic Prospects: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Ben Shepherd, an expert on the Democratic Republic of Congo, discusses the progress made by the country in the last 20 years and its potential for the future. Topics covered include the history and geography of the DRC, Congolese misgovernance, violence in the eastern DRC, recent elections, and the future of the country's leadership.

The hosts discuss their concerns about the market and geopolitics. They explore the unexpected turnaround in the stock market. The impact of Olive Garden's expanding margins and Ozempic on various companies is discussed. Recent trends in intermodal volumes and the freight market are analyzed. The economy, upcoming elections, and China's stable economy are also talked about. The challenges faced by the US in the Red Sea and the situation in Israel are highlighted. The hosts wrap up with lighthearted remarks and an ad for Cognitive Investments.

Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics.--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Matt Pines, a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, breaks down cyberwarfare risks, 5G and China, trust networks, and the possibility of a full-on cyber war in an enlightening episode.