The Restaurant Report

The National Restaurant Association, in partnership with the American Culinary Federation (ACF) and Technomic, conducted the 17th annual What’s Hot survey targeted to thought leaders in the culinary field. More than 500 professionals from the ACF and chefs associated with Association programs weighed in on what they see as the leading menu trends for the coming year. While most trends align with culinary expertise, some buck the data side of consumers. We continue to see a shift in consumer sentiment around service and quality with a new focus on better value. With current market conditions, we are also tracking a small shift in upselling in the fast-casual sector to go head to head with casual dining.We also get to sit down with Mr. Brews Tap house and explore a new sector of lower entry point casual dining operations. With 16 locations around the U.S. and counting. Each of our locations serves more than 50 varieties of craft beers from the surrounding area and a full menu of gourmet burgers featuring Hereford beef. The one element that sets them apart also aligns with one of the top trends for 2023 - Localization. The brand’s local spirit doesn’t start and end with the beers they have on tap but goes for all of our touchpoints, from individual location websites to social media pages. Franchisees are also supported to be and act locally, which is a big differentiation from some of the big box casual chains.

Topical Smoothie is adding a double drive-thru restaurant that could help drive franchising growth for the brand. Existing franchisees are also behind 70% of the company’s total cafe openings this year, and have helped increase its year-to-date opening by 25% compared to the first three quarters of 2021. The chain also is one of the rising stars in consumer sentiment, growing to #28 on the Foodable Labs top 150 list.In 2021, the company opened its 1,000th location and reported same-store sales growth of 22%. Last year, digital sales made up 76% of the company’s sales growth, after it introduced customizable online and mobile ordering. Sales RisingIn the first three months of the pandemic, NYC taxable sales from bars and restaurants dropped over 50% (70% in Manhattan) since restaurants were not allowed to offer outdoor seating. This trend changed once Open Streets launched in June 2020, with a continued uptick in sales.The uptick in sales compared to pre-pandemic levels reflect the growing impact of inflation and rising menu prices on company operations. Full-service meal prices were up 8.8% during the last 12 months compared to an increase of 7.1% for limited service, according to the Consumer Price Index.

A new entry into the use case for NFTs and their connection to loyalty and rewards is now Starbucks. They unveiled Starbucks Odyssey, a new experience powered by Web3 layer two solution Polygon that will offer Starbucks Rewards members and partners (employees) in the United States the opportunity to earn and purchase digital collectible assets that will unlock access to new benefits and immersive coffee experiences.Polygon is an Ethereum sidechain that enables faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient transactions than Ethereum. It has become a late favorite of brand partners, with firms like Coca-Cola and Reddit launching NFTs on Polygon. Also, Disney picked Polygon for its Web3 accelerator program this past summer. Additionally, Ethereum recently converted to a technology that is 99.9% cleaner than its previous power monster mining solution.This could be the solution that bridges the gap for restaurants into the metaverse, web3, and the next generation of blockchain tech that may make payment, loyalty, supply chain, and other tech obsolete.Also, in this episode.What's driving restaurants salesHow do restaurants beat the $25 an hour rising labor costs Will meme restaurants become all the rage?

During a recession, there is a decline in consumer spending when the credit markets become harder and harder for consumers to utilize. This is a key trigger point we are watching very closely as the impact on the casual and fine dining sales will most likely be the first to be affected.Our Foodable Labs data shows that current trends for consumer traffic have been trending down for most sectors.Fine Dining down 3.9% Q1 vs Q2Casual Dining down 4.7% Q1 vs Q2Fast Casual down 1.4% Q1 vs Q2QSR up .053% Q1 vs Q2Recessions can be caused by a financial crisis, the bursting of a real estate or stock market bubble, or some black swan event that causes consumers to lose faith in the economy. Combine this with the current macroeconomics of global conflict, food supply shortages, and energy on the brink of supply problems in G20 nations, and you have the ingredients for a full-on recession.When GDP for the April through June period is released, it may be negative again, and by one common rule of thumb, two-quarters of negative GDP growth would mean the U.S. is already in a recession.That remains far from the case under the more formal standards economists use, particularly because hiring, perhaps the most important marker, remains very strong. A recent Reuters poll showed economists upping the likelihood of a downturn over the next year to 40%, but until workers start losing jobs, it is unlikely one has begun. The issue with the restaurant issue is we are already seeing the first signs of slowing job growth and reversal of job numbers for the first time in two years.So what are the things you can do to prepare? In this episode, we dive into a discussion with Ricky Richardson of Eggs Up Grill to talk about the tactics to help your restaurant business survive and thrive in these uncertain times.Discussion PointsManagement Preparation, how and what kind of team you should be building or grooming.Technology - prepare for more automation and more CRM integration.Menu Management - getting things right by maximizing and building new concepts - more with less.Marketing - more important than ever with market shares up for grabs and limited consumer spending on the rise.

The real heartbeat of the restaurant industry is that of the independent operator. With this sector being one of the most affected by the Cerveza Flu, it’s clear there needs to be a new understanding of running an operation in the future.This sector will need to address one of the savviest consumer sets in the history of modern society.Gen Z visited restaurants 66 fewer times in the 12 months through February 2022 than Gen X did in 2002 when 18- to 24-year-old Gen X consumers visited restaurants 284 times per year. While Millennials visited restaurants 40 fewer times per person per year than Gen Xers in a comparable age range.The key aspects of this downturn are also related to the falling sentiment in overall service in hospitality.Combine this with the expectation of technology integration of 94% of the overall demographic, and you have a new age in how operators need to function.In this episode, I chat with veteran multi-unit and independent operator Vaugahn Dugan to explore the real magic that needs to occur for the independent restaurant operator to make it.With the California Foodservice Instant Rebates Program, California Investor Owned Utility (IOU)* customers can get valuable Instant Rebates on qualifying energy-efficient equipment for their businesses.You can skip the paperwork and receive an Instant Rebate as a discount directly on your invoice when you purchase qualifying high-efficiency natural gas or electric commercial foodservice equipment from participating dealers.

Is the restaurant industry facing a major collapse under economic pressure? Why the mass exodus of significant CEO's within the last year, with Darden, Red Robin, Denny’s, Brinker, and Starbucks all stating their CEOs were retiring after guiding their companies through the pandemic for over the past two years. Wingstop and Red Lobster’s CEOs left for positions at other companies, adding to the turnover list.The previously recorded high of CEO departures was in 2019 – also the last time U.S. economists saw a potential recession on the horizon. Amid high inflation and rising recession concerns, company leadership may be preparing for difficult times after a few years of staggering change.Many companies not worried about layoffs may need to begin adjustments on compensation as inflation looms. In the past economic downturns of 2008, companies did not take inflation into consideration for compensation budgets since it was considered transitory. Now all of this may change with a new normal expectation of a 4-6% annual inflation base. The likelihood of Chair Power continuing a hard press on slowing inflation through Q4 2022 could place the country and the world in a new economic condition never seen before in the entire history of the restaurant business.We get a chance to chat with Patrick Renna the President of Burgerfi to reveal key pressures that brands are facing as they prepare to enter a very uncertain market. We dive in deep on strategy talking about technology, HR, menu management, and the future of growth plans.

The Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week. The update comes after the S&P 500’s worst week since March 2020, including its fall into a bear market and the biggest Fed hike since 1994.With this new economic pressure, the restaurant industry continues to face rising menu prices and a double-digit slow down in retail restaurant traffic with consumers now dining out an average of 1.1 times less per week according to Foodable Labs.Tesla CEO Elon Musk, joins a growing chorus of Wall Street voices, including Roubini Macro Associates’ Nouriel Roubini and several banks warning of tougher times ahead.“I think that a recession is inevitable at some point. As to whether there is a recession in the near term, I think that is more likely than not,” Musk told Bloomberg in an interview early Tuesday at the Qatar Economic Forum.Musk’s comment lines up with an email he reportedly sent to company executives earlier this month, where he spoke of a “super bad feeling” about the global economy and said 10% of Tesla jobs needed to go, knocking shares of the company at the time.Could we see the first slowing of labor in the restaurant industry as a variety of white-collar jobs are now being hit with the hiring freeze and slowdown in many leading companies in the finance, retail, and automaker sectors?Goldman Sachs now sees a 30% chance of an economic slowdown over the next 12 months, from a previous 15% on worries the Fed will “feel compelled to respond forcefully” to high inflation. The restaurant sector could feel some of the deepest cuts as consumer spending could slow dramatically in the third and fourth quarters of this year.In this podcast, we talk with Larry Reinstein of LJR Hospitality and break down some of the key trends facing the industry and how operators can address a fast-changing economic landscape in the areas of management, labor, future technology and consumer habits.

Smokey Bones Bar & Fire Grill is planning to open a drive-thru service model for their casual dining business. Considered to be the first pure-play drive-thru in casual dining this could be the birth of something very exciting for the restaurant business.The drive-thru is being added to a restaurant in Bowling Green, Ky., and is expected to be up and running this summer. The big question is how will drive-thru impact pricing and speed of service for the chain and will they be able to compete with the rising stars of fast-casual and the stalwarts of QSR?Bigger questions about dining out will depend on the consumer. Credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.“There’s a good chance that Americans’ total credit card balances will soon reach a new record high, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that occurred in 2020 and early 2021,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.This will impact the restaurant business in a big way and survival may depend completely on strategies like casual dining drive-thru and new technology innovations that will position some brands to take a new market share position.Listen in on the full episode as we break down a variety of technology and consumer demand topics.Also, make sure to subscribe to our newsletter for the largest Podcast Network in foodservice.

You can now pay for your burritos and tacos with Bitcoin and other digital currencies, which could open up an array of innovations around loyalty and decentralized payment. Flexa has announced that the Mexican fast-casual chain can now accept digital payments through its platform. The option is available at all Chipotle locations in the US, and you can use the option on the Flexa-enabled wallet app, such as Gemini and SPEDN. Just launch up your app, choose Chipotle and show your phone to the cashier.The big question will be the direction of digital payments in the future could we see a leapfrog over the existing platforms like Venmo, Zelle, and others with a new feature for merchant services, data, and more? Its possible that an innovation wave could be brewing in the retail sector and likely that Chipotle has some very secretive plans for the future of blockchain payments.In my book the Chipotle Effect - the concept was the birth of the digital consumer and what that could lead to with brands like Chipotle, I think we have an answer now - and the digital pioneer for the industry, once again appears to be Chipotle. Others will follow fast, and there will be a mass adoption period just like social media in 2007-2010 - but the killer app is still early to identify, rest assured it's coming very fast!

Today I breakdown three tech categories that could be leaders in the future recovery of the restaurant industry. The key will be consumer adoption, UX, and the storytelling that many restaurants will need to implement to shift into a next-gen technology future.Faster Mobile PaymentsSquare, for instance, launched new handheld devices for servers that are designed to speed table turns. And Toast unveiled upgrades to its QR-code-based ordering and payment system, including a new feature that allows both the server and guests to add items to a running tab.The tools are not necessarily new, but they're being increasingly framed as labor savers because they eliminate the need for a server to run back and forth to put in an order or grab the bill.Delivery TechnologyNext-gen tech will begin to break out the delivery segment and potentially drive costs up in the beginning with higher margins in the future. Expect more logistics, order ahead, staging technology, and self-delivery technology. The key will be mobile UX integration to improve the customer experience to increase loyalty.Casual Dining Enters Premium Drive ThruTrends are heating up in Casual-dining drive-thrus. They’ve started to appear in various forms, from a full-service drive-thru at Smokey Bones to simple drive-up pickup windows at some Applebee’s. Many analysts are leaning in that we will see more chains moving in this direction. Expect some premium aspects presented by casual brands to compete - the bigger question will be the aspect of if premium drive-thru is a good timing based on the economic conditions.Make sure to subscribe to our newsletter to get all the latest podcast updates from the Foodable Podcast Network!