Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable?For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech StocksIn this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.00:01 Introduction00:48 Part One00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech23:13 Part Two23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments41:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.00:00 Introduction00:57 Part One01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor01:26 Understanding New Constructs02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business05:37 The Reality of Wall Street07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure26:12 Part Two27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions50:59 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008. [Repeat from June, 2023.] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the giant iceberg industries - it's all around us but we don’t really see it - is advertising.  Frequently touted as the first to suffer, first to recover on the economic cycle, but also counter cyclical, since you need to sell harder in tougher times. Now we are seeing wobbles in economic data, some serious haircuts in tech exits and layoffs from the great and the good, it seems only right that we double down on a massive global ads market this week to see if it is suffering and if it is - might there be troubles ahead?For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble: Navigating the World of Digital AdvertisingIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the state of digital advertising, its potential growth, the impact of technological trends, and the challenges it faces in terms of fraud and wasteful spending. They discuss the influence of AI in advertising, the philosophy behind programmatic advertising, and how economic cycles affect advertising spend. They also delve into the strategies employed by big companies like Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram in the face of fraudulent activities. Richard points out marketers' inherent conflicts of interest and the ways AI could enhance ad targeting and testing. The hosts end with an insight into how poor economic periods could push companies to advertise harder to maintain their market presence.00:00 Introduction00:53 Part One01:41 Understanding the Imperfections of the Advertising Market01:57 The Size and Giants of the Advertising Market02:36 The Impact of Social Media and Retail Media on Advertising05:32 The Journey of Advertising: From Brand to Direct21:43 The Influence of AI on Advertising25:22 Addressing Ad Fraud in the Advertising Industry25:48 Part Two26:21 The Problem with Stream Fraud26:39 Understanding the Different Types of Ad Fraud27:20 The Impact of Fraud on the Music Industry28:25 The Role of Bots in Ad Fraud28:28 The Rise of Made-for-Advertising Sites29:16 The Challenges of Programmatic Advertising30:58 The Dangers of Malvertising32:33 The Fear of Outing Fraudsters37:49 The Future of Advertising on WhatsApp43:16 The Impact of Elections on Advertising47:26 The Role of AI in Improving Ad Targeting48:12 The Influence of Advertising on Economic Cycles48:27 Conclusion: The Imperfections and Opportunities in Advertising50:01 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With 340-odd days ahead, what are the smoke signals - good and bad - that you need to be aware of? Today we look forward, and make sense of the madness ahead of us in 2024.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble: A Look at 2024's Economic Pitfalls and OpportunitiesIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss their outlook for 2024, examining potential economic headwinds and tailwinds. They predict turbulence ahead, citing macroeconomic swings, cutbacks in sectors like luxury goods, upcoming global elections, and changes in the tech landscape. They consider the potential impact of AI, particularly in the public sector, with potential benefits in education, health, and law. The hosts also discuss the uptake of Duolingo, reflecting on the broader success of apps that can maintain usage frequency.00:00 Introduction01:01 Part One01:26 The Impact of Economic Headwinds03:01 The Role of AI and Technology in the Economy04:23 The Impact of Job Cuts and Unemployment05:01 The Influence of Tech Companies on the Economy08:43 The Impact of Macro Swings and Uncertainties14:12 The Influence of Political Cycles on Economic Cycles20:25 Part Two 20:25 The Potential of AI in Transforming Public Services31:31 The Role of Drama in Influencing Public Opinion Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we’re in conversation with a special guest, someone who The Independent argued that he may be “the most influential man in British television.” Sir Peter Bazalegette. The man who brought Big Brother to our screens during his tenure at Endemol, steered the Arts Council England through a period of austerity and was recently chairman of the board of ITV. No one is better placed to make sense of the creative industries and the bubbles they perennially produce. (Repeat from March, 2023) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargal's dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers. (Repeat from July, 2023) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we want to wrap up a stellar year of topics, guests and unimaginable bubbly behavior, and not just of the kind of champagne at holiday parties. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble: 2023 in Review & Predictions for 2024Bubble Trouble: 2023 & Looking Ahead to 2024In this year-end episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer look back at the action-packed year of 2023 and the spectacular bubbles that burst within it. They discuss the turbulent direction of AI, the volatility in the podcast market, and address podcast topics including the integrity of financial statements and Britain's water crisis. The episode also features a reflection on past guests and their insights on different industry sectors. Looking forward to 2024, the hosts contemplate upcoming bubbles and the potential impact of global politics, elections, and interest rates.00:00 Introduction00:49 Part One01:00 Reflecting on the Journey of Bubble Trouble01:58 Reflection on the Bubbles that Burst02:11 The Metaverse, NFTs, and the Reality Check02:35 The Impact of the Consumer Debt and the Bubbles Bursting02:58 Predictions for the Bubbles in 202404:40 The Role of AI in the Tech World06:42 The Impact of Interest Rates on the App Economy07:00 The Economic Climate and Spotify's Job Losses07:52 The Impact of a Normal Functioning Finance System21:45 Part Two21:56 The Podcast Bubble: An Analysis22:29 The Impact of AI on Music and Entertainment22:48 The Rise and Fall of Podcasts and NFTs23:07 The Truth about Audience Figures in Podcasting24:41 The Future of Podcast Advertising26:16 The Advertising Market in the Digital Age26:45 The Challenges of Media Advertising28:16 The Impact of Time Shifting on Podcast Advertising28:40 The Dilemma of Monetizing Podcasts28:55 The State of the Podcast Industry39:00 The Impact of AI on the Economy40:06 The Effects of Job Cuts43:44 Closing Remarks and Acknowledgements44:45 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economics wont get you a lot of spicy dates… but we delve into a fantastically accessible book that compliments this podcast like gin and tonic. This week we’re going to be in conversation with the authors of "Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles," an engaging tour of the last 300 years of bubbles. (Repeat from May 2023).For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this intriguing episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a lively chat with the authors of 'Boom and Bust'- William Quinn and John Turner. They focus on the principles governing financial bubbles over the last 300 years. Along the way, they explore topics like the effects of quantitative easing, importance of marketability, and the benefits and drawbacks of certain economic policies. The conversation also touches upon the impact of speculation, implications of central bank independence, and the role of media in shaping economic perspectives. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week wrap up our conversation with Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron. [Part 2 of 2]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions.0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:42 Part One19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices30:41 Government's Financial Engineering30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics32:25 Part Two32:25 Inflation and its Impact32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance52:59 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.