The Tea Leaves Podcast

In this episode of Tea Leaves, Rexon and Mira sit down with Kelly Magsamen, former Chief of Staff to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and newly appointed Senior Advisor at The Asia Group, to introduce the Indo-Pacific Defense Incubator (IPDI). Drawing on her decades of experience in the Pentagon, NSC, and State Department, Kelly unpacks the evolving landscape of defense innovation, industrial cooperation, and allied technology partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. The three discuss how the U.S. and its allies can scale next-generation defense capabilities, the role of private capital and disruptor firms, and the strategic challenges posed by China’s rapid advances. Kelly also offers insights on what defense industry leaders and companies should watch as the Trump administration recalibrates its Indo-Pacific security priorities.

In this episode of Tea Leaves, TAG Chairman Dr. Kurt Campbell joins the show to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “Underestimating China,” and outlines why the United States must shift its strategic approach to remain competitive. In his conversation with Rexon Ryu, Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Tiffany Ma, Dr. Campbell discusses his argument that unless the United States moves toward “capacity-centric statecraft” and allied scale, the U.S. risks falling behind China in key domains relating to military capabilities, technology, and operational elements. He explores the flaws in assessments of Chinese power, need for a protected allied market, and the need for two-way industrial cooperation. 

In this episode of Tea Leaves, Rexon Ryu and Tiffany Ma are joined by Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, head of The Asia Group’s Geopolitics Practice, and Dr. Evan Medeiros to assess where things stand nearly two weeks after April 2’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. They unpack the escalation from sector-specific tariffs to looming reciprocal measures and examine the U.S.-China trade standoff. Dr. Medeiros leads a discussion on why this round of the trade war marks a more entrenched phase of an economic standoff, China’s confident posture and retaliation strategy, and what it all means for businesses navigating the fallout. The team also explores the structure of ongoing negotiations and how trade talks are increasingly intertwined with broader strategic issues.

In this episode of the Tea Leaves Podcast, Rexon Ryu and Tiffany Ma are joined by Ambassador Kurt Tong to explore the Indo-Pacific's response to the re-election of Donald Trump. Ambassador Tong provides valuable insights into how regional leaders and businesses are bracing for potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy. Tune in for a deep dive into the evolving dynamics shaping Asia's future in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

In this episode of Tea Leaves, TAG President Rexon Ryu and Dr. Evan Medeiros explore the expanding scope of US-China and EU-China competition in the spheres of security, economics, technology, and governance. They discuss recent bilateral meetings, emerging tariff policies, China's military assistance to Russia, and the importance of dialogue to prevent miscalculation. Tune in for expert insights on navigating two of the most consequential bilateral relationships today.

Sharon Burke is the Founder and President of Ecospherics, an environmental research and advisory firm based in Washington, D.C. She most recently served as the lead on climate change, energy, and environment for the Biden-Harris Transition Team. She previously served as the first Assistant Secretary of Defense for Operational Energy at the Department of Defense (DoD), where she oversaw the energy security of U.S. military operations. Before her time at DoD, she worked as a Senior Fellow and Vice President at the Center for a New American Security, where she initiated a program called “Natural Security” to examine the intersection of natural resources and national security. She has also worked at the State Department, Amnesty International, and the New America think tank. Sharon holds a bachelor’s degree from Williams College and a master’s degree in international affairs with a focus on energy policy from Columbia University.

Jennifer Welch is the Chief Geoeconomics Analyst at Bloomberg. She most recently served as Director for China and Taiwan on the U.S. National Security Council and as Special Advisor for Asia and the Pacific in the offices of Vice President Kamala Harris and former Vice President Mike Pence. Previously, she was Fulbright fellow in Xi'an, China, where she worked with local scholars and nutritionists to design a health education program. She holds a bachelor's degree in international relations and East Asian studies from Bucknell University.

Debbie Yong is a Senior Strategist focusing on the Asia-Pacific region at WGSN, a consumer-trend forecasting company. She previously worked as the Editorial Director of the Michelin Guide in Asia and the Middle East, a China media analyst for BBC Monitoring, and a reporter for the Straits Times and the Business Times in Singapore. In 2019, Netflix featured her as a Singaporean food expert on “Street Food: Asia. She holds a dual master’s degree in global media and communications from the London School of Economics and Fudan University in China, as well as a bachelor’s degree in English Literature from the University of Pennsylvania.

The Hon. Arthur Sinodinos AO is Partner and Chair of The Asia Group's Australia Practice. He most recently served as Australia's Ambassador to the United States, where he was closely involved in negotiations related to AUKUS, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Amb. Sinodinos previously served as Australia’s Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science and as Senator for New South Wales in the Australian Parliament from 2011 to 2019. He also served as Cabinet Secretary and Assistant Treasurer, as well as Chief of Staff and Senior Economic Adviser to Prime Minister Hon. John Howard AC.

Phil Davidson is a retired four-star admiral in the U.S. Navy who last served as the 25th Commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). He served in the Navy for almost 40 years until his retirement in 2021. Before becoming the Commander of INDOPACOM, he was the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command/Naval Forces U.S. Northern Command. He previously served as commander of the U.S. 6th Fleet, and the commander of the Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO, while simultaneously serving as the deputy commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa. His decorations include the Distinguished Service Medal, the Marine Corps Commendation Medal with Combat “V,” a Superior Honor Award from the U.S. Department of State, and numerous other awards. He holds a Master of Arts degree in national security and a Bachelor of Science degree in physics from the United States Naval War College.