The Macro Minute with Darius Dale

Darius Dale breaks down the Fed’s policy crossroads ahead of today’s rate decision — asking whether policymakers prefer high growth with high inflation or low growth with high inflation. He unpacks the implications of potential balance sheet changes, ongoing repo market stress, and why 42 Macro’s KISS and Dr. Mo frameworks remain positioned for a risk-on, liquidity-driven regime.

Markets enter one of the most pivotal weeks of 2025. With U.S.–China trade breakthroughs, a likely Fed rate cut and QT pause, and a stacked lineup of Mag 7 earnings, the stage is set for a potential year-end performance chase. Darius Dale breaks down how liquidity, policy, and positioning are converging to extend the Goldilocks regime — and why KISS and Dr. Mo remain the disciplined roadmap for navigating what comes next.

Darius breaks down the latest U.S. and global economic data, highlighting persistent upside growth surprises and downside inflation risks that continue to validate the Paradigm C bull market. He explains why the current risk-on regime remains intact, how liquidity trends are supporting reflation, and why investors should stay systematically positioned with KISS and Dr. Mo as policy shifts accelerate.

Today, Darius Dale breaks down why the U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness as trade tensions with China re-escalate. He explains how the Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian energy giants have backfired by tightening global supply and driving crude prices higher, while China maintains the upper hand in upcoming trade talks. Despite geopolitical noise, Darius reaffirms that Paradigm C—the regime of fiscal dominance, deregulation, and monetary accommodation—remains firmly intact.

Darius Dale explains why the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—not just interest rates—remains the key driver of monetary policy tightness. Despite restrictive conditions, 42 Macro’s models continue to signal that the U-shaped economy is bottoming, with rate cuts expected next week and again in December. Paradigm C remains intact as liquidity expansion and monetary easing set the stage for the next leg of the bull market.

Darius breaks down why the market’s sharp rebound is not a fluke—and why investors should stay focused on the forest, not the trees. With 85% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings, inflation data delayed by the shutdown, and structural regime change at the Fed still in motion, this episode explains why short-term volatility remains a buying opportunity within Paradigm C’s bullish backdrop.

In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down the market’s reaction to the regional bank selloff and explains why investors should tune out the noise. Despite rising repo market stress and sensational headlines, the underlying regime remains solidly risk-on under Paradigm C. Darius reminds listeners that KISS and Dr. Mo continue to do their job—filtering volatility, minimizing downside capture, and keeping investors positioned to compound through uncertainty.

Darius Dale analyzes the renewed surge in gold amid U.S.–China trade tensions and deepening fiscal dominance. He explains why gold remains a cornerstone asset in Paradigm C and how 42 Macro’s systematic models continue to keep investors on the right side of market risk.

In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down Fed Chair Powell’s latest remarks and what they mean for Paradigm C. He explains why the Fed’s pivot toward easier policy reinforces the reflationary regime, updates 42 Macro’s quantitative signals, and shares how KISS and Dr. Mo continue to keep investors on the right side of market risk.

Darius breaks down whether it’s time to book gains as trade tensions resurface in today's Macro Minute. He explains why Paradigm C remains intact, why gold continues to shine as the premier defensive asset, and how labor hoarding supports the resilient U.S. economy thesis.