ChinaPower

This special episode of the ChinaPower podcast is the fourth of five featuring the audio from the China Power Project's fifth annual conference, which comprises five live online debates. The fourth debate took place on December 9, 2020 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: Within the next five years, China will use significant military force against a country on its periphery.Under President Xi Jinping, China’s military capabilities have continued to grow. China has stepped up military pressure on Taiwan and conducted frequent large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea. In addition, border tensions with India reached the highest level in decades. A skirmish in June 2020 led to fatalities on both sides. China’s last significant uses of force were in the 1980s along the land border with Vietnam, and in the 1988 clash over Johnson South in the South China Sea.Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, and Foreign and Defense Policy Fellow at American Enterprise Institute (AEI), argued that China will use military force against a country on its periphery within the next five years. M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science, and Director of the Security Studies Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), argued that China will not use military force on a country on its periphery within the next five years.This event is made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower podcast is the third of five featuring the audio from the China Power Project's fifth annual conference, which comprises five live online debates. The third debate took place on December 3, 2020 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: China will exploit the Covid-19 pandemic to shift the geopolitical balance of power in its favor. As the Covid-19 pandemic spread across the globe, China increased pressure on India, Taiwan, and several Southeast Asian neighbors that have territorial claims in the South China Sea. Chinese officials also lashed out at some foreign governments, which many characterized as “wolf warrior diplomacy.” In addition, China has embarked on a public health-diplomacy campaign, promising personal protective equipment and preferential vaccine access to developing nations and partners of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, argued that China will exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to shift the geopolitical balance of power in its favor. Aaron Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, argued that China will not exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to shift the geopolitical balance of power in its favor. This event is made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower podcast is the second of five featuring the audio from the China Power Project's fifth annual conference, which comprises five live online debates. The second debate took place on November 24, 2020 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: “One country, two systems” in Hong Kong is dead. When Hong Kong was handed over to China in 1997​, its people were promised that they would continue to enjoy a high degree of autonomy under the “one country, two systems” formula for at least 50 years. However, the Chinese government passed a National Security Law for Hong Kong in June 2020, which granted Beijing unprecedented powers over the city. The passing of this law has led some to question whether “one country, two systems” remains intact. Daniel Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, argued that “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong is dead. Regina Ip, legislator and member of Hong Kong's Executive Council, argued that “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong is still alive. This event was made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower podcast is the first of five featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s fifth annual conference, which comprised five live online debates. The first debate took place on November 19 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: The US-China relationship can best be described as a “new Cold War.”Over the last several years, relations between the United States and China have grown increasingly tense. Both the United States and China have expelled journalists and closed consulates amid heightened trade tensions and rancor about responsibility for Covid-19. Some experts believe Beijing is seeking to export its development model and that US-China competition has spread to the ideological realm. Other experts disagree, arguing that the Chinese Communist Party is more focused on defending against threats to its rule at home.Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), argued that the US-China relationship can best be described as a “new Cold War.” Melvyn Leffler, Edward Stettinius Professor of History Emeritus at the University of Virginia, argued that the US-China relationship cannot be described as a “new Cold War.”This event was made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

In this episode, Dr. Jeffrey Wilson joins us to discuss China's expanding trade restrictions against Australia. Dr. Wilson analyzes China’s trade strategy of targeted geo-economic sanctions and argues that China’s goal is to maximize economic pain without hurting its own welfare. In addition, Dr. Wilson explains how China’s targeted sanctions on Australia’s top 20 exports to China could serve as a precedent for other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. When considering whether China’s trade coercion against Australia is a violation of international law, Dr. Wilson contends that many of China’s actions fall into the grey zone. He discusses Canberra's decision to file a case against China in the World Trade Organization and contends that Australia will be better positioned to fight the case if it has support from the international community. Finally, Dr. Wilson asserts that the future of China-Australia trade tensions may depend on how U.S.-China relations develop, since China views Australia as an ideal proxy for sending a message to the United States. Dr. Jeffrey Wilson is the Research Director at the Perth USAsia Centre, where he provides leadership and strategic direction in developing the Centre’s research program across its publications, policy and dialogue activities. Dr. Wilson specializes in the regional economic integration of the Indo-Pacific, and has particular expertise in the politics of trade agreements, regional economic institutions, and Australia’s economic ties with Asia. 

In this episode, Mr. Ankit Panda joins us to discuss China's growing conventional missile arsenal and associated implications for military strategy and security in the Indo-Pacific region. He highlights the role of China’s ground-based missiles in the projection of military strength, noting that an increased arsenal can hamper U.S. forces in the region and give the People’s Liberation Army increased maneuverability. China’s missile arsenal is an important factor in its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, Mr. Panda argues, examining the role and efficacy of anti-ship ballistic missiles in projecting force areas surrounding the South and East China Seas. Mr. Panda talks about the consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty and the political obstacles to an increased U.S. arsenal around China’s periphery. Mr. Panda talks about the consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty and the political obstacles to an increased U.S. arsenal around China’s periphery. In addition, he explains the strategic implications of China's dual-capable missle force, and specifically the DF-26 missile’s ability to rapidly convert between nuclear and conventional warheads. Finally, Mr. Panda analyzes the hypersonic glide vehicle, noting that, while the underlying technology is not new, advances in materials science have allowed more countries to develop HGV systems.  Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and U.S. extended deterrence. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea.

In this episode, Dr. Darren Byler joins us to discuss China’s policies in Xinjiang and policy options for the international community. Dr. Byler analyzes the portrayal of Uyghur and Kazakh ethnic minorities in Xinjiang in comparison to other minorities in China and in relation to the Han majority. He describes how Chinese policymakers have shifted the discourse on policies towards Uyghur Muslims from concerns of “separatism” to concerns of “terrorism,” and evaluates the appropriateness of these terms to the Uyghur and Kazakh populations in Xinjiang. In addition, Dr. Byler describes the displacement of Uyghurs and Kazakhs in the Xinjiang region following China’s economic development policies in the 1990s. Finally, Dr. Byler discusses the camps in Xinjiang and the responses from the international community towards the camps, and offers suggestions for international policymakers moving forward.  Dr. Byler is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Colorado Boulder, where he researches the dispossession of ethno-racial Muslim minorities through forms of surveillance and digital capitalism in China and the global South. Dr. Byler’s first book project, Terror Capitalism: Uyghur Dispossession and Masculine Violence in a Chinese City, examines emerging forms of media, infrastructure, economics and politics in the Uyghur homeland in Chinese Central Asia. Prior to joining the University of Colorado, Dr. Byler was a lecturer in Anthropology at the University of Washington in Seattle.

In this episode, Mr. Bill Hayton joins us to discuss the genesis of China's thinking about sovereignty and how this shapes Chinese foreign policy today. He discusses the influence of Western notions of sovereignty on China during the Qing Dynasty and argues that the dynastic tributary system is still reflected to some extent in China’s current international relations. He further argues that the Qing tribute system was important because of the domestic legitimacy it conferred on the Qing Dynasty. In addition, Mr. Hayton frames the volatile South China Sea situation in terms of sovereignty, describing control of the islands as a deeply emotional issue that is emblematic of national pride for China. He also explains how views of sovereignty could affect China’s approach to arms control, resulting in reluctance to accept third-party inspection of compliance with international treaties. Lastly, Mr. Hayton sheds light on China’s vision of an international stage characterized by relationships between individual and sovereign states rather than coalitions and blocs.   Bill Hayton is an associate fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House and a journalist with BBC World News. Throughout his career, Bill has focused on a variety of regions, including the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and Asia. He has written three books on Asia: Vietnam: Rising Dragon, South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia, and his latest book, The Invention of China, will be released in early November. 

In this episode, Dr. Mikko Huotari joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Europe and China. He highlights the multifaceted relationship between China and the European Union, noting that the EU has labeled China as both a strategic partner and a systemic rival. Dr. Huotari argues that while the coronavirus has been a driver of recent tensions in the Europe-China relationship, there has been a longer-term negative trend of worsening ties and a lack of progress on policy agendas between the EU and China. In particular, Dr. Huotari examines China’s human rights record and discusses its impact on relations with European countries. He also evaluates the evolution of European sentiment towards China and security issues regarding China, and assesses the prospect for greater transatlantic cooperation between the United States and Europe on China policy. Lastly, Dr. Huotari analyzes the impact of the US election on Europe-China ties, saying that productive transatlantic collaboration is more likely under a Biden Administration than a second Trump administration.  Dr. Mikko Huotari is the Executive Director of MERICS. His research focuses on China’s foreign policy, China-Europe relations, and global (economic) governance and competition. He has published on China’s rise as a financial power, trade and investment relations with Europe, and geopolitical shifts related to China's emergence as a global security actor.

This episode examines China’s role in the global climate change agenda and Xi Jinping’s commitment at the September 2020 UN General Assembly for China to become carbon-neutral by 2060. Mr. Sandalow argues that this new commitment provides an opportunity for China to present itself as a global leader on climate change policy, in contrast to the United States. Although China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, Mr. Sandalow notes that China has invested heavily in renewable energy infrastructure and technology. He views China’s strength at long-term planning as a benefit in implementing effective strategies to combat climate change. Mr. Sandalow also evaluates the progress China has made since signing the Paris Accords, how technological innovation will help China achieve its climate goals, and the potential impact of a Trump re-election or a Biden presidency on US-China cooperation to address climate change. David Sandalow is the Inaugural Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and Co-Director of the Energy and Environment Concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. He founded and directs the Center’s US-China Program and is author of the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy.