Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

In a dramatic shift, Donald Trump now questions Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia. The UK plans to invest over £100 million in troops for a possible ceasefire. Meanwhile, the US and Australia strike a deal to access rare earths, challenging China's supply dominance. Sanae Takaichi makes history as Japan's first female prime minister. An AWS outage disrupts major online services, and BNP Paribas faces scrutiny linked to Sudan human rights abuses. Plus, insights into recent museum heists and their motivations.

John Liu, Greater China Executive Editor at Bloomberg, shares his insights on China's mixed economic signals, highlighting a puzzling 4.8% Q3 growth amidst weak domestic spending. He discusses the significance of the upcoming five-year plan meeting and expectations for targeted policy measures, focusing on technology and consumption rather than broad stimulus. Liu also examines how China's economic stability influences its negotiating stance in U.S.-China talks, especially regarding critical issues like rare earths and soybeans.

This week, Paul Allen, a Bloomberg correspondent from Sydney, dives into Australia’s strategic mineral reserves ahead of Prime Minister Albanese's meeting with President Trump. He highlights potential US-Australia collaborations in critical minerals and discusses barriers to refining capacity in Australia. Allen also addresses the delicate balance Australia must maintain between its ties with China and the US, alongside insights on the AUKUS defense pact and its implications for national security.

In this engaging discussion, journalist Michelle Hussain speaks with Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, who emphasizes NATO's need to remain vigilant against Russian threats. Tony Halpin offers insights into Trump's upcoming summit with Putin in Budapest, exploring its implications for Ukraine. The conversation also delves into a troubling decline in US regional banks, highlighting market fears of fraud. With discussions about Carney balancing climate concerns with oil industry realities, this podcast is packed with timely political and economic insights.

Chinese state actors have compromised UK classified systems for over a decade, raising serious security concerns. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary hints at extending tariff pauses if China eases rare-earth export controls. In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves needs to significantly increase her fiscal buffer to prevent tax hikes. The French Prime Minister appears likely to survive no-confidence votes by suspending a pension reform. Lastly, Ken Griffin shares skepticism about AI's impact on hedge fund performance, contrasting with other industry leaders.

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: (1) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate cut later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy. (2) US President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.  (3) JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sounded warnings on the potential for a deterioration in credit quality, a cautionary note that put a damper on the firm’s surge in trading and investment-banking revenue. (4) ASML’s orders beat analyst expectations in the third quarter, as demand for its chip-making machines was fueled by hundreds of billions of dollars in investment into artificial intelligence infrastructure. (5) Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu won the crucial support of the Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly, significantly improving the chances of his new government surviving two no-confidence votes Thursday. (6) Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey raised concerns about the UK economy running “under potential” and a softening jobs market, as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves flew to Washington to make her growth pitch to investors. Podcast Conversation: The Best New Hotel in London Fixes What’s Wrong With LuxurySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rachel Metz, Bloomberg's AI reporter, dives into Europe's battle for AI independence. She discusses the continent's worries about reliance on American giants like NVIDIA and OpenAI, emphasizing the importance of local investment and talent retention. Metz explores the challenges Europe faces in defining its own AI sovereignty and the funding gaps that hinder progress. She also considers the realistic prospects for collaboration with global firms, painting a picture of a region striving for technological resilience amidst competitive pressures.

Seven hostages were released by Hamas as part of a US-brokered ceasefire, raising questions about the agreement's longevity. The White House signaled a willingness to negotiate with China amidst escalating trade tensions and new tariffs. Markets reacted, with stocks rebounding after initial losses. Meanwhile, AI-generated work is causing chaos in workplaces, labeled as 'workslop,' straining productivity and team dynamics. Political shifts in France and potential coalition changes in Japan add further complexity to the global landscape.

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel and a key player on Wall Street, shares his insights on gold's recent surge and the potential for de-dollarization. He discusses how this rally may reflect investor hedging amid inflation and fiscal challenges. Griffin also critiques U.S. fiscal policies, emphasizing the urgent need for reform and advocating for deregulation to maintain growth. He highlights the risks surrounding a government shutdown and the impact of fiscal dysfunction on the market.

Richard Bravo, a Bloomberg reporter specializing in French government and economics, dives into the political dynamics in Paris amid uncertainty surrounding the prime ministerial transition. He highlights how business leaders are maneuvering to influence the new government, especially Olivier Faure's pivotal role. Additionally, Bravo discusses the urgent timeline for the new PM to address the budget before the year's end, showcasing the importance of swift political action in France.