ASEAN Speaks

This Highlight is on Maybank’s expectations of Malaysia Budget 2024. Winson Phoon gets the details from Suhaimi Ilias, our Group Chief Economist. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We highlight expectations of Malaysia’s Budget to be tabled on 13 Oct, and our outlook on Singapore as manufacturing slumped by the most since November 2019. Meanwhile in Thailand, watch for non-performing loans and government incentives. Also as the US government averts a shutdown, what is the immediate term for the US dollar? And how will the Chinese Yuan hold up during this super Golden Week? 00:35 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:45 - MY Budget 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias 12:06 - MY fuel subsidy - Suhaimi Ilias 14:34 - TH GDP - Erica Tay 18:23 - TH banking - Jesada Techahusdin 19:52 - SG manufacturing - Brian Lee 24:57 - Dollar outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 27:56 - CNH, Ringgit - Saktiandi Supaat 29:54 - TH equities - Chak Reungsinpinya Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

What is Maybank’s revised forecast for the Fed Funds Rate? Winson Phoon discusses with Dr Chua Hak Bin, our Co-Head of Macro. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We discuss our revised forecast in light that the FOMC has guided for one more 25 basis point hike this year. Additionally for ASEAN equities, specifically the Thai market, why did it experience a pullback despite the resolution of political uncertainty? We also look at different industries - the outlook for large scale solar projects in Malaysia, the cement industry in Indonesia, and retail in Thailand.  00:34 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:28 - FOMC - Chua Hak Bin 06:55 - SG NODX - Chua Hak Bin 08:59 - ASEAN, ESG calls - Anand Pathmakanthan 14:59 - KLCI - Anand Pathmakanthan 15:45 - MY Solar - Nur Farah Syifaa 18:33 - ID cement - William Jefferson 21:35 - TH consumer - Suttatip Peerasub Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

What is the outlook for the Thai Baht? Chua Hak Bin speaks with Saktiandi Supaat, Head of Forex Research at Maybank on his latest ASEAN Macro report. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Our analysts do a deep dive of data that came out last week and what to expect - China macro, GDP growth in Malaysia, Indonesian trade numbers, REITs in Thailand and Malaysia, and crude palm oil prices. Chua Hak Bin, our Co-Head of Macro, speaks with our teams across the region.  00:22 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:16 - CN macro - Erica Tay 06:22 - MY GDP - Zamros Dzulkafli 10:54 - ID trade - Brian Lee 15:14 - TH Baht - Saktiandi Supaat 19:59 - TH REITs - Wasu Mattanapotchanart 22:48 - MY REITs - Nur Farah Syifaa 25:11 - CPO - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

While we remain constructive on Malaysian equities and maintain our year end KLCI target at 1,520, what are the pressure points in the near term? Suhaimi Ilias, our Chief Economist, speaks with Wong Chew Hann, Head of Research in Malaysia. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We unpack our analysis on China as we downgrade its GDP growth to 4.8% in 2023 from 5%, and 4.4% in 2024 from 4.6%, and consider the pressure points on earnings in Malaysia and ASEAN including the banks. 00:20 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:19 - China macro - Erica Tay 9:21 - TH macro - Erica Tay 11:42 - PH macro - Zamros Dzulkafli 16:24 - MY earnings - Wong Chew Hann 24:05 - ASEAN banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 26:11 - ASEAN catalysts - Anand Pathmakanthan 28:58 - TH energy - Chak Reungsinpinya

ASEAN’s share of world foreign direct investments had climbed to 17% in 2022, almost triple its 6% share in 2016. The next wave of investments are expected to boost the green sector as governments announce concrete measures to transition to net zero. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro discusses his report. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We round up key data and events in Southeast Asian economies against the backdrop of major central banks across the world continuing to battle rising risks to growth. 00:19 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:00 - Green manufacturing - Chua Hak Bin 09:54 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 13:46 - USD, Renminbi changes - Saktiandi Supaat 20:50 - Bonds - Winson Phoon 24:50 - PH banks - Rachelleen Rodriguez 27:03 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng