ASEAN Speaks

Moving into 2024, Singapore’s economy sees green shoots in export and manufacturing, with overall recovery in Asean markets, says Chua Hak Bin, Maybank’s regional co-head for Macroeconomics.

In our first episode for 2024, our economists and analysts give an overview of their outlook for Asean economies – Singapore to Malaysia to the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, as well as China. Tune in to find out what are some exciting forecasts to look forward to in the regional markets. 00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:05 - Green shoots themes - Chua Hak Bin 05:08 - Singapore - Chua Hak Bin 07:59 - Malaysia - Suhaimi Ilias 12:59 - China - Erica Tay 18:44 - Bonds - Winson Phoon 21:22 - Forex - Saktiandi Supaat 25:13 - Indonesia - Brian Lee 28:25 - Philippines - Zamros Dzulkifli 32:27 - Thailand – Erica Tay 38:53 - Vietnam - Brian Lee   Producer: Esther Phua, Maybank IBG

In this week’s highlight, Jeremie Yap, our analyst, outlines the beneficiaries of Petronas as it decides how to strike a balance between capital expenditure, dividend commitment and balance sheet preservation. He speaks with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

This week, we consider the reasons for China's delayed Economic Plenum, assess Indonesia's inflation jump, consider multi-year market trends in Singapore, and outline our equities strategy for the Philippines. 00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:36 - CN PMI - Erica Tay 06:38 - CN Economic Plenum postponed - Erica Tay 08:12 - TH interest rate - Erica Tay 10:39 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 13:18 - ID inflation - Brian Lee 15:03 - SG strategy - Thilan Wickramasinghe 19:03 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 22:44 - Petronas 3Q results - Jeremie Yap 24:44 - PH strategy - Rachelleen Rodriguez Producer: Noelle Lim, Group Global Banking, Maybank

Malaysian banks are expected to deliver weaker second half earnings compared to the first half this year. Why and what’s our earnings forecast for 2024 and top stock picks? Winson Phoon discusses with Desmond Ch’ng, our Banking Analyst. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

As the year is concluding, we highlight our expectations for Malaysia's 2024 economic reforms amidst the runway to the next General Elections, while exploring the impact of subsidies rationalization on inflation. Additionally, we examine Thailand's lower than expected Q3 GDP, and share insights from our Thai Bank Day, as well as discuss our equities strategy for Indonesia. 00:33 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:56 - MY 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias 08:52 - MY balance of payments - Zamros Dzulkafli 10:26 - MY inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 13:24 - SG inflation - Brian Lee 15:45 - SG GDP - Brian Lee 17:58 - ID interest rate - Brian Lee 19:33 - TH GDP - Erica Tay 23:35 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 25:48 - TH Bank Day - Jesada Techahusdin 27:18 - ID strategy - Jeffrosenberg Chenlim Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank 

Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14th of February next year. Who is likely to win in what we expect to be a prolonged contest? Brian Lee, our Economist, discusses with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Towards the year end, ASEAN markets are expected to do better on the back of more resilient economic data. Our analysts discuss this including the outcome of President Joe Biden and Xi Jinpings’ meeting. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14 February next year - who is likely to lead in what we expect to be a prolonged contest?  00:25 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:07 - MY 3Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 09:35 - PMX at APAC - Suhaimi Ilias 11:32 - CN 4Q GDP - Erica Tay 14:34 - CN property - Erica Tay 16:45 - Biden-Xi - Erica Tay 18:14 - USD/Yuan - Saktiandi Supaat 21:57 - ID elections - Brian Lee 24:48 - PH rate hikes - Zamros Dzulkafli 26:51 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 29:23 - CPO prices - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

In our highlight today, Erica Tay, our Economist discusses with Suhaimi Ilias on the outlook for China’s growth as export weaknesses continue while imports pick up. For the full conversation with her on China and other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Is China’s economy propped up by policy support or demand? In the other large economy, Indonesia - GDP growth moderated to the lowest since the third quarter of 2021. Will growth be firmer towards the end of the year and in the lead up to the presidential elections in 2024? Meanwhile in Thailand, the Prime Minister had announced its largest stimulus in the form of cash handout via the digital wallet.  00:29 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:49 - CN trade, GDP - Erica Tay 13:33 - PH GDP, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:30 - ID GDP - Brian Lee 21:17 - Policy actions, reserves - Saktiandi Supaat 28:27 - PH equities - Rachelleen Rodriguez 31:45 - TH equities - Chan Reungsinpinya  Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank