ASEAN Speaks

Anand Pathmakanthan speaks on the 3Q earnings season to date and how funds flow is rotating. MKE’s energy research team has revised Brent crude assumptions to US$75/bbl for 2022 and discuss scenarios for an energy super cycle. Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore banking sector is flush with liquidity - is loans growth finally back on track?

What are the signposts to watch now that CPO markets have rallied above MYR5000/mt? Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens S$NEER policy band slope earlier than expected. MKE’s Philippines’ banks research team shares their best picks given that loans growth data has troughed with evidence of activity pickup.

Kaushal Ladha briefs on this energy cycle’s supply shock. Key reforms to go green in the 12th Malaysia Plan will also give CPO planters a tailwind for higher pricing power. Vietnam risks falling into a technical recession, is the silver lining in the skies?

China Evergrande (3333 HK) has missed bond interest payments as of last week. Will this event spiral into a contagion? The Fed will officially kick off the asset purchase tapering at the next FOMC meeting in November, Suhaimi Ilias discusses the implications on ASEAN central banks. Thailand’s banking sector turned in strong performances last week on SCB’s restructuring announcement; time to pay attention to banking laggards.

Asian governments prefer a dovish fiscal stance vs the hawks in US and Europe. Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance has instructed banks to waive interest on loans under moratorium with immediate effect while Bank Indonesia is forcing banks to boost loan disbursement to MSMEs.

Could ECB’s recent recall of its pandemic monetary support pressure the US Fed to signal tapering by Sep? MKE’s portfolio strategist presents his case for improving sell-side sentiment for ASEAN equity markets and his convictions why downside will be limited even in the event of taper tantrums. MKE has just initiated coverage on Singapore-based SEA Ltd with a buy call.

US non farm payrolls missed consensus expectations by a long shot stoking stagflation fears. Will Malaysia's maiden pre-budget meeting boost investor confidence in how the country manages its finances. MKE's Malaysia banks analyst Desmond gives the lowdown on Malaysia banks and his positioning strategy. With China's slowdown, MKE's FX head Saktiandi discusses about the risk of RMB devaluation.

Winson Phoon shares on what the bond futures market imply about risks following the Fed’s signal that tapering could occur as early as late 2021. Malaysia has announced its new cabinet lineup; will this announcement improve overall market sentiment for FBMKLCI? Semiconductor industry has been facing pressure because of supply chain bottlenecks. Is now the time to take profit on ASEAN chip testers and contract manufacturers?

Malaysia has appointed Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri as its 9th Prime Minister. Will the change bring about the much needed political stability? As the Fed heads into its Kansas City annual conference on Thursday, markets will be watching for clues what the Fed will do about tackling higher inflation. MKE makes the case for 4 risk factors that will delay the pace of ASEAN’s economic recovery. Thailand will face its first twin deficit since 2013. MKE’s Thai strategists assess the economy and their portfolio strategy.

Chua Hak Bin argues that ASEAN’s economic outlook will continue to diverge at the country level, well into 2022. MKE launch model portfolio baskets to help clients invest through market cycles. What is priced into FX and credit markets as markets weigh in on the timing of US Fed tapering? Finally, MKE is long CPO sector despite near-term headwinds.