ASEAN Speaks

From our Weekly Briefing, we highlight our ASEAN+ note and outlook on the KLCI. Host: Winson Phoon, Head of Fixed Income Research Guest: Anand Pathmakanthan, Head of Regional Equity Research For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Our analysts across ASEAN examine the inflation data in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, and weigh in on the impact of Thai’s elections on its stock market and China’s slower than expected recovery. We also discuss despite the surprise decision by OPEC+ to cut crude oil production, we are maintaining our oil price estimate at $100/barrel for 2023.  00:31 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:23 - ID inflation - Lee Ju Ye 07:22 - TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 09:53 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 13:56 - FX outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 19:38 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 22:40 - KLCI forecast - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:46 - OPEC cut - Liaw Thong Jung 25:11 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 27:12 - VN strategy - Hoang Huy

A monetary review of Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam following new data and interest rate increases, and also the resilience of ASEAN banks vis-a-vis Silicon Valley Bank. Something we might not be able to escape is El Nino which has a 50% chance of surfacing in July and its impact on currencies and palm oil output. 00:31 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 02:41 - MY GDP - Zamros Dzulkafli 06:08 - MY monetary review - Zamros Dzulkafli 07:24 - SG monetary review - Lee Ju Ye 08:59 - TH inflation, interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 11:23 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 14:04 - ASEAN banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 16:47 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 19:15 - commodities, FX, climate patterns - Saktiandi Supaat 27:12 - US corn, plantation picks - Ong Chee Ting

Looking at the likely outcomes and implications as Thais vote at their General Elections on the 14th of May - what is the likelihood of Pheu Thai founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra coming into power? We also consider the potential depth of Singapore's recession as manufacturing drops more than expected in February. And as banks in the US and Europe continue to dominate headlines, what has been the impact on ASEAN markets, and what are the undervalued stocks? 00:29 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:22 - SG macro - Chua Hak Bin 08:05 - CN recovery - Brian Lee 11:13 - TH elections - Lee Ju Ye 14:52 - TH economics - Lee Ju Ye 16:57 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 18:49 - PH economics - Zamros Dzulkafli 22:01 - PH picks - Jacqui de Jesus 24:01 - ASEAN picks - Anand Pathmakanthan 27:01 - Plantations - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

We review possible contagion and currency scenarios, and cut our forecast for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) after it extended a double-digit decline in February. Looking ahead, we evaluate the Belt & Road plans for ASEAN that were tabled by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) at China’s recent National People’s Congress. 00:20 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:05 - Bank of Indonesia updates - Lee Ju Ye 06:54 - ID trade - Lee Ju Ye 08:12 - SG NODX cut - Chua Hak Bin 10:13 - Belt & Road - Chua Hak Bin 14:28 - Contagion, currency scenarios - Saktiandi Supaat 20:46 - PH banks exposure - Rachellen Rodriguez 23:15 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 24:30 - Plantation - Ong Chee Ting Producer

We look into Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to keep the OPR unchanged at 2.75%, and our expectations of Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday. We also assess the potential impact of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Malaysia and Singapore banks. We issued a seminal report on sustainability and found that ASEAN companies under our coverage expanded their ESG adoption despite geopolitics and anti-ESG propaganda had hurt ESG flows and performance. 00:25 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:13 - MY OPR, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 08:14 - PH inflation, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkifli 11:03 - TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 13:24 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 14:18 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 15:53 - SVB failure on MY - Desmond Ch’ng 17:19 - SG banks downgrade - Thilan Wickramasinghe 19:11 - SVB failure on SG - Thilan Wickramasinghe 20:36 - ESG performance - Neerav Dalal 26:24 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 28:33 - MY properties - Wong Wei Sum Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As latest data shows that inflation in the US remains elevated while China is focused on growth, our analysts dissect its implications on ASEAN economies and earnings. We also watch for China’s National People’s Congress this week, as well as headwinds slowing Vietnam’s GDP growth as a result of bond defaults. 00:26 – Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:55 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 06:15 - ID earnings repatriation  - Lee Ju Ye 08:04 - TH external trade - Lee Ju Ye 09:42 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 15:35 - Sustainable bonds - Mun Yi Se Tho 18:45 - USD outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 21:46 - China NPC - Saktiandi Supaat 23:56 - ASEAN 4Q earnings - Anand Pathmakanthan 26:22 - MY banking - Desmond Ch’ng 28:56 - PH banking - Rachellen Rodriguez 30:45 - MY EV, Tesla - TJ Liaw Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts discuss Malaysia's retabled Budget 2023 and its implications on the economy, bonds and equities. 00:15 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:27 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi Ilias 10:51 - MY bond markets - Winson Phoon 15:31 - MY equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 18:14 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 19:22 - VN property bond defaults - Anand Pathmakanthan 21:21 - MY inflation - Zamros Dzulkifli 24:13 - SG inflation - Chua Hak Bin Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

This Friday, on the 24 February, Malaysia will be re-tabling its Budget 2023. We expect it will set the budget deficit to GDP ratio at -5% versus the original Budget at negative 5.5%. We also look at the impact of Singapore’s Budget that was released last week. 00:29 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:04 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi Ilias 09:15 - SG Budget - Chua Hak Bin 13:54 - SG Budget on equities - Thilan Wickramasinghe 16:14 - SG exports - Lee Ju Ye 17:47 - TH GDP - Lee Ju Ye 19:15 - ID interest rates - Lee Ju Ye 20:56 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:20 - MY plantation - Ong Chee Ting 27:02 - PH consumer - Daphne Sze Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts dovetail into the effects of China’s re-opening and the impact on Singapore’s bank earnings to be released this week. We also discuss our first reports of the year on Singapore REITs and China’s inflation; revisit property developers in Penang; and consider the policy stance of Kazuo Ueda, expected to be the next governor of the Bank of Japan. 00:23 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:37 - MY GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 04:46 - MY employment - Suhaimi Ilias 07:21 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 10:21 - Kazuo Ueda appointment - Saktiandi Supaat 14:06 - China inflation - Brian Lee 16:33 - TH hikes - Lee Ju Ye 18:29 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramsinghe 21:56 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 24:12 - MY property - Wong Wei Sum 25:55 - TH healthcare - Yuwanee Prommaporn Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG