ASEAN Speaks

Looking ahead to this week, we discuss expectations of FOMC’s meeting, and what to watch for in Bank of Indonesia’s statements given the decline in exports. In terms of equities, we look into projections for the Philippines, and 2Q bank earnings in Singapore and indications of China’s growth. 00:27 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:02 - FOMC - Suhaimi Ilias 04:15 - MY 2Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 06:56 - ID exports - Brian Lee 08:56 - ID interest rate - Brian Lee 11:02 - FX post hiking - Saktiandi Supaat 15:55 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 18:44 - PH markets - Jacqui de Jesus Maybank IBG

Last week, we saw Pita Limjaroenrat fail in his bid to become Prime Minister of Thailand. What is ahead for the markets? Winson Phoon speaks with Chak Reungsinpinya, our Head of Equity Research in Thailand. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

In Thailand, who will become the next Prime Minister? Why did Singapore avert a technical recession? What can we expect from China’s 2Q GDP number which will be out today? We also look at Malaysia’s second half prospects and stock picks in view of the upcoming state elections. 00:26 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:33 - TH politics - Chak Reungsinpinya 09:12 - SG GDP - Chua Hak Bin 12:01 - CN macro - Brian Lee 15:39 - MY 2H macro - Suhaimi Ilias 21:03 - MY 2H equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 24:55 - ASEAN calls - Anand Pathmakanthan 26:27 - USD, MYR, SGD - Saktiandi Supaat 30:29 - Plantations - Ong Chee Ting Maybank IBG

Maybank has downgraded its ASEAN-6 GDP growth forecast to +4.2% in 2023 from +4.5% at the start of the year. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro, speaks with Suhaimi Ilias about the ten post-pandemic realities and downside risks going forward. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

El Nino is expected to peak from now till the first quarter of next year across ASEAN. How will warmer and drier conditions affect agriculture, food production as well as inflation? 00:21 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:51 - ASEAN macro - Chua Hak Bin 11:09 - ID, TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 13:14 - TH minimum wage - Lee Ju Ye 13:58 - El Nino impact - Lee Ju Ye 14:46 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 15:55 - PH minimum wage - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:17 - PH El Nino impact - Zamros Dzulkafli 18:26 - Plantations outlook - Ong Chee Ting 21:21 - El Nino plantations - Ong Chee Ting 23:20 - El Nino agricultural - Daphne Sze 25:10 - PH telco - Rachellen Rodriguez 27:34 - MY banking - Desmond Ch’ng

In this week’s Highlight, we look into Indonesia consumer stocks and feedback from investors at our recent marketing trip in Singapore. Willy Goutama, Analyst at Maybank Sekuritas, speaks to Winson Phoon. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Singapore’s manufacturing worsened in May indicating a technical recession is probable. Vietnam’s 2Q GDP gathers pace but is still lackluster. Meanwhile for equities, Indonesia continues to be a bright spot, based on feedback at Maybank’s Invest ASEAN conference. We look at positioning for further growth, and our stock picks in other markets without re-rating catalysts yet.  00:31 - Roundup - Winson Phoon  04:37 - SG technical recession - Brian Lee 07:36 - VN GDP, interest rate - Brian Lee 11:55 - FX forecast revisions - Saktiandi Supaat 19:21 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 21:37 - MY equities, state elections - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:05 - ID equities - Jeff Chen Lim 24:39 - ID consumer - Willy Goutama 28:36 - PH retail picks - Daphne Sze

Inflation has been easing in Malaysia and Singapore - is this enough to pause further central bank actions? And for ASEAN, the elephant in the room question - does China need more measures to turbo charge its economy? Meanwhile, looking at the top currency trades - will the USDJPY continue to move higher? Also, will the Ringgit continue to slide? 00:30 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:56 - SG inflation - Chua Hak Bin 08:49 - MY inflation, OPR - Zamros Dzulkafli 12:34 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 15:45 - CN interest rate - Brian Lee 17:45 - CN stimulus - Brian Lee 20:00 - CN GDP - Brian Lee 23:23 - MY bonds - Winson Phoon 27:01 - USDJPY - Saktiandi Supaat 30:26 - USDMYR - Saktiandi Supaat 33:23 - PH equities (Invest ASEAN) - Jacqui de Jesus Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting. What would this mean for Malaysia and the other regional markets? Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro speaks with our analysts. 00:20 – Roundup – Chua Hak Bin 03:06 – Fed dot plot - Suhaimi Ilias 05:25 – BNM OPR, GDP – Suhaimi Ilias 09:44 – China economics – Brian Lee 15:15 – Indonesia economics – Lee Ju Ye 17:56 – Regional equities – Anand Pathmakanthan 22:21 – PH malls - Miguel Several Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

In today’s Highlight, banking analyst, Desmond Ch’ng discusses if we should still stay invested in Malaysian banks as interest rates fall. Co-Head of Macro, Chua Hak Bin moderates the call. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.