Send us a textIn this episode, April outs herself as an optimist and spends a little over 12 minutes justifying her attitude.Episode 17 Show Notes:The American Psychological Association definiton of optimism: https://dictionary.apa.org/optimismOxford Language Dictionary definition of optimism: https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/optimismPsychology Today's article on optimism: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/optimismProfessor Brian Martin's blog post about the value of optimism: https://documents.uow.edu.au/~bmartin/pubs/comments/0701optimism.htmlA good description of the optimism bias: https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-optimism-bias-2795031Oingo Boingo's 1983 hit that epitomizes the optimism bias: https://youtu.be/qpjHW4mr6qoA rather long but interesting academic read about the optimism bias: https://taylorlab.psych.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2014/11/2002_When-Predictions-Fail.pdfSome good information about the optimism bias in the Covid1-9 pandemic:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ana.26001https://www.pcma.org/optimism-bias-downside-positive-thinking-during-covid-19/Books by Suzanne Segerstrom: https://www.amazon.com/Suzanne-C.-Segerstrom/e/B001JP4MKY%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_shareShawn Anchor and "irrational optimism:" https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-happiness-advantage/201103/are-you-irrational-optimistA transcript of Matt Ridley discussing his book at the 7th Annual Hayek Lecture at New York's Manhattan Institute: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/rational-optimist-how-prosperity-evolves-8316.htmlMore good Matt Ridley stuff: https://reason.com/2020/05/03/what-its-like-to-be-a-rational-optimist-in-a-pandemic/Stephanie Caine's beautiful blog post about logical optimism: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/logical-optimism-stephanie-caines/?articleId=6649370011909660675I didn't mention this in the podcast but it's a good read: https://medium.com/swlh/the-rational-case-for-optimism-6bc9a4dcbbc2More potential evidence that being an optimist is good for business: https://hbr.org/2019/03/the-financial-upside-of-being-an-optimist

Send us a textIn this episode, April talks with Ed Dentzel, host of the Unfound Podcast, which focuses on missing person cases with the stated goal of turning up new information that might lead to a resolution of the case. Ed discusses how he approaches each case, using research, interview skills, and good logic and reasoning to uncover information and present it to his listeners in a straightforward manner with little or no speculation or conjecture. If you've ever wondered what it takes to put together a true-crime podcast, this is a must-listen! Episode 16 Show Notes:Here's the Unfound Podcast website:https://unfoundpodcast.podomatic.com/According to NAMUS (which Ed references in the episode), the vast majority of missing person cases are resolved:https://www.npr.org/2013/05/07/182000622/majority-of-missing-persons-cases-are-resolvedThe NCIC (National Crime Information Center) reports that as of Dec. 31, 2019, there were 87,500 active missing person cases:https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/cjis-link/fbi-releases-2019-missing-person-statisticsHere's a helpful document if you suspect that a person is missing:https://www.muni.org/Departments/police/Documents/checklists_for_missing_persons.pdfNew Jersey State Police's protocol for missing persons:https://www.njsp.org/divorg/invest/pdf/mpi-best-practices-protocol.pdfSome news articles relevant to the Thomas Brown case (this whole thing is really interesting, I'll be looking for the conclusion of the grand jury):https://abc7amarillo.com/news/local/new-details-released-in-canadian-teens-death#:~:text=A%20private%20investigator%20released%20new,remains%20were%20found%20in%20Januaryhttps://www.newschannel10.com/2019/11/12/hemphill-county-sheriff-nathan-lewis-resigns/https://abc7amarillo.com/news/local/hemphill-county-deputy-let-go-following-letter-addressing-credibility-from-county-attorneyNate Silver! That's the 538 Podcast guy, and here's his book:https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087A good explanation of the "Peltzman Effect:"https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Peltzman-EffectTad DiBiase's book about no-body homicide cases:https://www.routledge.com/No-Body-Homicide-Cases-A-Practical-Guide-to-Investigating-Prosecuting/DiBiase/p/book/9781482260069

Send us a textIn this episode, April talks about inconsistency. While logical inconsistency is always wrong (it's known as the fallacy of inconsistency), personal inconsistency is a little more complicated. When people say one thing and then later do or say another thing, we tend to think that's a bad thing (and we are certainly right, at least sometimes). But, because consistency is so important, do we run the risk of being labeled a hypocritical flip-flopper if we should happen to come to a different conclusion than we came to previously? When is saying something different than you said before hypocrisy, and when is it justified? Episode 15 Show NotesA transcript of the NPR program referenced in the episode:https://www.npr.org/2012/03/05/147980266/our-brains-betrayed-by-political-inconsistencyAn explanation of logical inconsistency:https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/InconsistencySome examples of the fallacy of inconsistency:https://www.txstate.edu/philosophy/resources/fallacy-definitions/Inconsistency.html#:~:text=A%20person%20commits%20the%20fallacy,line%20and%20say%20no%20moreTrump's personal inconsistency regarding the Access Hollywood tape:https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/28/16710130/trump-says-access-hollywood-tape-fakeA Washington Post op-ed piece about President Biden and the filibuster (liberally oriented, of course, so it gives that viewpoint about the filibuster issue):https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/02/perverted-rule-how-joe-biden-evolved-supporting-filibuster-trying-change-it/A Heritage Foundation op-ed piece (which is the conservative opinion, so it helps with understanding why some people would say he's being hypocritical) about the issue of Joe Biden and the filibuster:https://www.heritage.org/political-process/commentary/senator-joe-biden-vs-president-joe-biden-filibuster-problemAn excellent, succinct explanation of personal inconsistency and why it's not always wrong:http://changingminds.org/disciplines/argument/fallacies/personal_inconsistency.htm

Send us a textIn this episode, April and her friend John Champion,  co-host of "Mission Log: A Roddenberry Star Trek Podcast," get all nerdy and philosophical about the ways in which the Trek triumvirate of Kirk, Spock, and McCoy epitomize the Aristotelian proofs of ethos (appeal to authority), logos (appeal to logic), and pathos (appeal to emotion). Plus they reminisce about the good old days when Star Trek: the Experience was the coolest thing ever. Sigh...Episode 14 Show NotesHere are the episode numbers for the Star Trek: The Original Series episodes we referenced:"Balance of Terror"--Season 1, Episode 14"City on the Edge of Forever"--Season 1, Episode 28"The Empath"--Season 3, Episode 12"Requiem for Methuselah"--Season 3,  Episode 19Here are the IMDB listings for the movies we referenced:Star Trek: The Motion Picture--https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079945/Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan--https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0084726/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0Star Trek V: The Final Frontier--https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0098382/You can find many Star Trek television shows and movies on https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/star_trek/You may also be able to find some on Hulu, Prime Video, FX Now, and FuboHere's the link to all Roddenberry podcasts, including Mission Log:https://podcasts.roddenberry.com/If you want to search for specific Mission Log episodes, here is their archive:https://www.missionlogpodcast.com/archive/Some of McCoy's best smart-ass/heartfelt/profound wordplay: https://impertinentremarks.com/rhetoric-lessons-from-star-treks-dr-mccoy/An interesting take on the friendship between the Trek triumvirate: https://www.startrek.com/article/the-importance-of-friendship-in-star-trekHere's Michael Shermer's explanation on why Kirk is such a great leader:SHERMER, MICHAEL. “The Captain Kirk Principle.” Scientific American, vol. 287, no. 6, 2002, pp. 39–39. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26060080.  (If you don't have access to JSTOR, you can probably find this article online in Scientific American's archives.)Oh, and you may have noticed that John and I use different pronunciations for "ethos," "pathos," and "logos." Well, mostly "pathos."  That's perfectly acceptable, as this article explains: https://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2020/01/ethos-logos-pathos.html

Send us a textApril talks with Celestia Ward, one of the hosts of Squaring the Strange, a podcast that focuses on evidence-based analysis covering a very wide variety of topics. In this episode, April finds out how Celestia got started as a skeptical researcher; they also discuss some of the techniques Celestia uses to focus on finding facts while still acknowledging that she, like all of us, has biases. Along the way they mention skeptic icon James Randi, Penn and Teller, folklorist Jeannie Thomas, and Mick West, author and founder of metabunk.org. April also find out that Celestia is a big fan of the number 13 (the episode number)! After the interview, Celestia mentioned that she spent eight years as an academic editor at Johns Hopkins University Press, and says of that experience "Cutting your teeth on reference lists that are nearly as long as the chapters instills you with a respect for thorough research."  Episode 13 show notes:Here’s the Squaring the Strange website. You can also find them on Apple Podcasts:https://squaringthestrange.libsyn.com/website Hey, look what I found! An 2015 article about Celestia in Skeptical Inquirer, written by Ben Radford (now one of her co-hosts on Squaring the Strange):https://skepticalinquirer.org/newsletter/facing-art-and-skepticism-caricaturist-celestia-ward/ A good NPR article giving some background and a proper sendoff for James Randi:https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926717787/amazing-escape-artist-magician-and-skeptic-james-randi-dead-at-92 The website for one of the best skeptic/science podcasts out there, The Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe: https://www.theskepticsguide.org/ A great article from a science education website about why scientist must also be skeptics:http://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/introduction/scientific-inquiry/why-must-scientists-be-skeptics.php Wikipedia (yeah, sometimes it’s a perfectly good source) has a list of Penn and Teller’s Bullshit episodes:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Penn_%26_Teller:_Bullshit!_episodes Here’s the lecture by Jeannie Thomas in which she references the SLAP testing method, and confesses that she’s even been pulled in by scary-sounding claims that ended up being untrue (it is a BYU lecture, so there is an opening prayer—do with that what you will):https://vimeo.com/507323130 To quickly check a news story to see if it has any basis in fact, try https://leadstories.com/ or factcheck.org Wanna buy Mick West’s book? Here you go:https://www.amazon.com/Escaping-Rabbit-Hole-Conspiracy-Theories-ebook/dp/B077YS5G2N Contact Celestia Ward for information about her caricatures at:https://www.2headsstudios.com/

Send us a textApril talks about one of the sneakiest fallacies, the misplaced burden of proof. Here's an example:Friend: George told me he's not getting the vaccine because it's dangerous.You: How do you know it's dangerous?Friend: I'm just telling you what George said. How do you know he's wrong?You: I...um...what?Here's what it is, and what to do when it happens to you.Show Notes:Here's an explanation of the misplaced burden of proof:https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/burden-of-proofIn case you want to make a Prove Me Wrong meme, here's the meme generator. Just make sure your audience knows it's a fallacy, please:https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/140087640/Prove-me-wrongHere's the amazingly sexist and fallacy-laden interview with Gavin McInness:https://www.ttbook.org/interview/proud-boys-founder-gavin-mcinnes-youd-be-happier-housewifeThe Effectivology website is full of really great articles about fallacies and making good arguments. This is the article I refer to in the episode:https://effectiviology.com/burden-of-proof/There's a subtle but important difference between presumption and assumption. This explains it:https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/assume-vs-presume 

Send us a textApril begins Season 2 by talking about why we seem to be so angry these days, and what we can do to take it down a notch. Episode 11 Show NotesHere's Nancy Rommelmann's op-ed describing the fallout from the online outrage against her and her husband: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-rommelmann-me-too-portland-20190222-story.htmlHarvard's Elizabeth Bartolet writes about the things that trouble her about the MeToo movement: https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2018/1/16/bartholet-metoo-excesses/An NPR story about outrage with Steve Inskeep and Shankar Vedantam: https://www.npr.org/2019/10/09/768489375/how-outrage-is-hijacking-our-culture-and-our-mindsSome of the short and long-term effects of anger can be found here: https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/healthyliving/anger-how-it-affects-people#:~:text=The%20long%2Dterm%20physical%20effects,learning%20relaxation%20techniques%20and%20counsellingRichard Ford's excellent Stanford blog post about what he calls the "outrage-industrial complex":https://law.stanford.edu/2019/12/20/the-outrage-industrial-complex/Psychology Today author Rob Henderson writes about the social underpinnings of outrage: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/after-service/201906/moral-outrage-why-we-attack-each-otherVictoria Spring's article in Scientific American about the positive and negative aspects of outrage: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-outrage-be-a-good-thing/Some great ideas from journalist Zaid Jalani on how to de-escalate your social media outrage: https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/how_to_avoid_the_social_media_outrage_trap

Send us a textApril's pretty excited for her upcoming season!

Send us a textApril explains why we are all so bad at determining probability and risk. Well, maybe you're not, but she is. Anyway she talks about death a lot, which is a topic lots of people find interesting; but don't worry because she avoids the gory details. Unless you like the gory details, in which case...sorry about that. Episode 10 Show NotesAn interesting probability calculator: https://www.calculators.org/math/probability.phpMichael Shermer's  article discussing our inability to grasp probabilities: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-do-not-intuitively-grasp-probabilities/ Another Shermer article discussing the problem with anecdotal evidence: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/ Yet another great article about our inability to calculate risk: https://www.cogencyteam.com/news/2018/02/why-are-humans-bad-at-calculating-risk/Why we dislike self-driving cars: https://slate.com/technology/2016/06/research-shows-why-people-are-bad-at-assessing-the-risks-of-self-driving-cars.htmlThe excess deaths during the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths.html Yes, masks work to reduce our risk of Covid-19: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-preventCDC info on the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm How we either overestimate or underestimate our risk of getting Covid-19, along with lots of other risks we misinterpret: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.htmlHere’s the birthday problem calculator. Enjoy! https://sites.google.com/site/craigandera/craigs-stuff/odds-ends/the-birthday-problem-calculatorThe difference between actual causes of death and what's covered in news media: https://ourworldindata.org/does-the-news-reflect-what-we-die-fromA discussion of the difference between “possible” and “probable” on a website for English language learners: https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/21191/in-simple-words-what-is-the-difference-between-possible-and-probable#:~:text=Possible%20means%20it%20can%20happen,it%20is%20likely%20to%20happenZagorsky’s article about determining “expected value:" https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-lifes-risks-more-rationally-94366

Send us a textIn this episode, April uses the definition of “bullshit” described by American philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt in his seminal 1985 essay, “On Bullshit” to discuss its impact on our lives and ways to see through it. As you can probably tell, she also says “bullshit” a lot. Episode 9 Show Notes I purchased the big red Bullshit Button that you hear in this episode from Amazon if you want one. I use it to annoy my students, but it’s also handy for annoying your kids, significant other, and pets.The book “On Bullshit” by Harry G. Frankfurt is also available on Amazon as well as academic databases.As of 2018 Trump was still insisting he was right about Sweden: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-claims-he-was-right-about-crimes-caused-immigrants-sweden-n854296 Beto O’Rourke and his “false” rating on Politifact: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/oct/21/beto-orourke/despite-his-claim-presidential-candidate-beto-orou/Hey it’s not just me; the illustrious Harry G. Frankfurt himself has called out Donald Trump on his bullshit: https://time.com/4321036/donald-trump-bs/Yes, “bullshit receptivity is a thing. Here’s discussion of the research by Gordon Pennycook et al: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jopy.12476https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-54494-003https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/one-among-many/201512/not-even-bullshithttps://www.niemanlab.org/2017/08/when-it-comes-to-the-academic-study-of-fake-news-bullshit-receptivity-is-a-thing/Philosopher Victor Moberger’s article in Theoria: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/theo.12271A short explanation of how Brandolini’s law got it’s name: http://ordrespontane.blogspot.com/2014/07/brandolinis-law.htmlConspiracy theories and pseudoscience both get science wrong:https://elephantinthelab.org/how-conspiracy-theorists-get-the-scientific-method-wrong/This amazing little handbook teaches you how to approach people and (nicely) debunk their bullshit. It's focused on climate change deniers, but it will work for other issues: https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/DebunkingHandbook2020.pdf Author Warren Berger shows you how to pick up on, and call out, bullshit: https://www.fastcompany.com/3068589/how-to-fine-tune-your-bullshit-detector “Legit Scientist” Paul M. Sutter explains the power behind the words “I don’t know.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulmsutter/2019/08/11/i-dont-know-is-one-of-the-most-powerful-thin